Hey you guys, don't fall for this "python" crap. The arbitrators aren't going to use it. They are going to use what they understand. stuff like, stovepipe, career expectations, etc. The LUS pilots tried that crap with the American/US Airways merger and it was totally ignored.

Our negotiating committee tried to sell it, along with Bill Wilder, as the second coming of Christ. Here is what I will tell you: hold on to your hats because this arbitration has the potential to fractionalize your group like none other. ALPA merger policy picks winners and losers. You don't. Statistics, darn statistics and lies. Who said that?

 

You are probably right, but I am afraid of heights so they would not let me in the Air Force, so not sure how it was on the land lubber side. Just anecdotal evidence.

Come to think of it you are right though. I do remember during the recruiting boom after Top Gun came out, there were a pretty high percentage of the kids from Stanford, Santa Clara and Cal that came through the door of the Officer Selection Team at Alameda. They usually said something like "so I saw the movie and being a fighter pilot looks like a lot of fun and great way to see the world....but I am wondering if you have any way the Navy or Marine Corps would guarantee me a spot to fly a tanker." Happened all the time.

 

While off-the-street hires were most likely fixated on fighters, many ROTC, academy, and military brat types already had enough inside knowledge of the system that many preferred heavies or other non-fighter platforms for lifestyle reasons. I wasn't that wise at that age, but some were.

 

Close. It was Twain who said “there are three kinds of lies; lies, damn lies, and statistics”

 

Yes, it is almost certain that the arbitrators aren't going to use the seniority_list program in this integration. But it can still be used now to understand and compare the proposals.

The seniority_list program was developed out of frustration with the current process. It is a comprehensive tool which provides quantifiable insight into how integrated seniority list proposals would actually affect the careers of pilots, both short- and long-term.

The east committee did not use the seniority_list program at all and it is not affiliated with any law firm.

The hope is that someday pilots will realize that the current process is largely based on arguments which have nothing to do with flying airplanes and everything to do with lawyers, inevitably leading to winners and losers and fractionalization of the combined group.

Before making a judgment about "python crap", please take a look at the paper which was published through Cornell University last year and the documentation website for the program. While it is too late to help with the Alaska-Virgin merger, it certainly can help with future integrations if there is a will to do better and avoid repeating the mistakes of the past.

Paper:
https://scholarship.sha.cornell.edu/chrpubs/246/
Please note that the program has been updated and improved since the paper was published.

Documentation:
seniority_list documentation — seniority_list 0.62 documentation

 

Yes, it is almost certain that the arbitrators aren't going to use the seniority_list program in this integration. But it can still be used now to understand and compare the proposals.

The seniority_list program was developed out of frustration with the current process. It is a comprehensive tool which provides quantifiable insight into how integrated seniority list proposals would actually affect the careers of pilots, both short- and long-term.

The east committee did not use this program at all and it is not affiliated with any law firm.

The hope is that someday pilots will realize that the current process is largely based on arguments which have nothing to do with flying airplanes and everything to do with lawyers, inevitably leading to winners and losers and fractionalization of the combined group.

Before making a judgment about "python crap", please take a look at the paper which was published through Cornell University last year and the documentation website for the program. While it is too late to help with the Alaska-Virgin merger, it certainly can help with future integrations, if there is a will to do better and avoid repeating the mistakes of the past.

seniority_list is an open-source program (free to use).

Paper:
https://scholarship.sha.cornell.edu/chrpubs/246/

Documentation:
seniority_list documentation — seniority_list 0.62 documentation

 

Thats it! I couldn't remember it quite the way I put it but I think you get my point. Thanks for the correction. Sorry, my "Twain" past Huck Finn is a little weak.

 

Does this data include only pilots who will be merged? I don't see that it accounts for the newer hires (post merger) who are all straight DOH. Not showing the DOH crowd underneath the rest would skew the prospects of the SLI-impacted group.

 

Yes, this only shows pilots who will be integrated. The post-merger hires will be junior to all affected pilots from all groups and will therefore have no impact on the career progression for senior affected pilots in any merged scenario.

The data model presents outcome information based on highest ranked position possible for all pilots at all times. This doesn't happen in the real world but is extremely useful for building outcome results which are determined by known variables such as list order or conditions and restrictions while controlling the unknown personal choice variables. So while pre-merger pilots could choose to bid positions normally held by post-merger pilots, that is not a reflection of maximum bidding power and won't be included in the model. In short, the results indicate the best everyone could do from each group under both proposals.

Also as mentioned on the chart website, the data used to create the charts is an estimate from the submitted proposals. To be more accurate, specific inputs concerning inactives, job counts, etc. would be needed.

 

Why waste time with useless charts that are meaningless and have no impact on the final arbitrated result?