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Old 03-31-2020, 02:57 PM
  #101  
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Originally Posted by AK22 View Post
It would seem 10-15% ASM would be about equivalent to reducing guarantee from 75 to 65 hours in the furlough mitigation portion of section 23. I haven’t seen that discussed here. We’ve been running wide open, with guys timing out at FAR limits. Reducing to 65 hours should be able to achieve the desired reduction without a furlough. That’s if the company and union can achieve the required “mutual agreement”.
My numbers included furlough mitigation, reading M’s last post... he is including furlough mitigation. Furlough mitigation can probably save 200-250... there is a lot of ambiguity in that section too. It is a reason we are not closer to 500 furloughs.

M, Bronze level? But what is more likely, that or another round of consolidation?
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Old 03-31-2020, 03:08 PM
  #102  
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Originally Posted by Mea25000 View Post
Company plans to be 10-15% smaller in 2021. Company is also going to ask for a 18 month, 10 percent pay cut from the pilot group this fall. I think OTZ-Brown’s numbers are pretty good. I also agree that people should have all available information. For those that don’t know, OTZ was once furloughed, I am confident he understands its tragic impact.
never give up pay even for a short time. Considering they never fixed fo slope they can take their pay cut stick it you know where.
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Old 03-31-2020, 03:09 PM
  #103  
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There are over 60 pilots on disability on the list right now. How does that affect the furlough metric?


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Old 03-31-2020, 03:27 PM
  #104  
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Originally Posted by OTZeagle1 View Post
My numbers included furlough mitigation, reading M’s last post... he is including furlough mitigation. Furlough mitigation can probably save 200-250... there is a lot of ambiguity in that section too. It is a reason we are not closer to 500 furloughs.

M, Bronze level? But what is more likely, that or another round of consolidation?
We have around 3050 on the list, a 15% reduction would be 458 furloughed. Assuming everything is linear. Reducing avg. guarantee 75 to 65 (in accordance with sec 23) is a 13.3% reduction. So the 385 number you mentioned doesn’t really look like much mitigation. Previous manpower assumptions seem to have everyone maxed out all the time, above guarantee, premium, flex-up months, FAR limits. So to me it looks like there’s a lot of slop to go from that down to 65 hours. Just a question of “Do the right thing” and come a mutual agreement.
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Old 03-31-2020, 03:47 PM
  #105  
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Originally Posted by THE SHAFT View Post
Boys and girls please please please no negotiating / mentioning what you will settle for. Management in their best of times will data mine just imagine what they will do in their worst of times. Again we are not an ATM for the company, if you want to have a debate have one with your rep. I too have said dumb things in haste on this board, guilty as charged but we will need unity to get through this with the least amount of damage.
This. In spades. Stop negotiating in public.

Cheers - Rob.
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Old 03-31-2020, 04:30 PM
  #106  
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Data mining the garbage being spewed here?

I guess if they wanted a wholly inaccurate picture of things to come. OK.

I doubt any pilots didn’t get the big fat message that it’s time to save money and not buy a new Corvette, NB kicks or jean shorts.

Sure save your money. Bad times ahead. But how bad? No one knows.


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Old 03-31-2020, 04:56 PM
  #107  
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Originally Posted by AK22 View Post
We have around 3050 on the list, a 15% reduction would be 458 furloughed. Assuming everything is linear. Reducing avg. guarantee 75 to 65 (in accordance with sec 23) is a 13.3% reduction. So the 385 number you mentioned doesn’t really look like much mitigation. Previous manpower assumptions seem to have everyone maxed out all the time, above guarantee, premium, flex-up months, FAR limits. So to me it looks like there’s a lot of slop to go from that down to 65 hours. Just a question of “Do the right thing” and come a mutual agreement.
I said it’s NOT linear. 2909 is the number of active pilots. That is minus Management and Medicals. Subtracting 10-15% was just a simple way to show numbers that are complex. Without LOA’s, retirement, furlough mitigation the numbers would probably be around 700. This really is like 9-11 and 2008 combined, it’s really tough guys. 185- 210 narrow bodies flying Q4. That’s 2200-2500 pilots needed under normal scheduling rules. If we get through this mid 2-300’s, we navigated this really really well. I couldn’t agree more, no more pay cuts, but there is a cost to that, a very human cost. This thing will turn around and we will get everyone back, it’s just going to take time.
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Old 03-31-2020, 05:44 PM
  #108  
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Wow. An astounding number taking 0 paid leave. Honestly surprised!
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Old 03-31-2020, 06:38 PM
  #109  
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Pay cuts and/or concessions are a no-go for this pilot group. They can ask but the answer will be a big fat NO. It’s the oldest play in the book - pay cut used as furlough mitigation. No airline in the history has ever been saved through labor offering up pay cuts and concessions. Period. Don’t be a fool by negotiating on public forums.
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Old 03-31-2020, 06:44 PM
  #110  
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Originally Posted by ShyGuy View Post
Wow. An astounding number taking 0 paid leave. Honestly surprised!
92 seems like a good number, Alaska thought 40 in each seat so pretty close. It honestly surprised me a little, especially on the FO side.
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