Where did I get kicked off? This is news to me....


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Sure seems that way. It’s good to know. I’ll be treating people accordingly from now on.


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With all due respect to everyone, I understand emotions are high right now. But to base any assumptions or draw any conclusions from anyone posting on an anonymous aviation chat board is foolish. I don't mean to sound condescending, but who the freak cares what some keyboard warrior thinks of you? Take a deep breath and just walk away or just lurk, that would be the best advice I can offer if anyone cares ;-).

Honestly I keep coming back to Spring 2021. Alaska does NOT have the International exposure the Big 3 have. I realize furlough numbers change based on LTD, STD, Mgmt pilots and anyone else out for various reasons... but the number the Union told me was furlough only makes sense if you're out 24 months. A chief recently told me it was VERY expensive to furlough. What the exact numbers are, I don't know or don't care. I can definitely see a lull in demand from Fall of 2020 until about Spring of 2021, then a ramp up for Summer 2021. If that's the case, furloughing pilots for under 12 months wouldn't theoretically make any sense. Also, I would expect another "round" of stimulus later in the year possibly for airlines. Whether Alaska would get any of that or not is anyones guess. I do believe Int'l traffic (meaning Asia, Europe, Australia) will take much longer to return, but Alaska has an advantage here.

 

repeat sorry.

 

We have 82 airplanes flying, to think we won’t furlough is fantasy.

 

Sure, today, 82 airplanes are flying. 3 months from now? 4? 5? 6? Our CEO in the last webcast said if this environment remains the same, we will be "cost neutral" by December of 2020. I realize nobody knows what demand will be and I'm sure it will be tepid come May, and June. Hoping it starts to accelerate a little by July and August. Any kind of revenue we get will offset the numbers further into the positive. I believe they'll be ugly right now and thru June, but it will start to pick up at some point. Another round of stimulus in the Fall and a clearer picture in the Winter of 2020 for what Summer may look like in 2021. Also, if there's buyout incentives for guys to retire early, (especially if the government is footing the bill), that can only help mitigate. To furlough and make it equitable for the company, I'd say the pilots would have to be out conservatively 18 months. from Oct. 1st, 2020.... An accelerating economy will pick up as well with any kind of vaccine or breakthrough. Already the original factored numbers for this virus is way off. No reason to think everything else would be as well.

 

I agree with a lot of what you say, I just don’t think there’s any way to spool things up quickly enough again once things begin to improve to avoid furloughs, if it saves Alaska 5 cents they won’t hesitate to furlough.

 

I will take that bet, I would lay down 6.9 million there is a furlough this fall... I would bet that 100% of the time... bye

 

MEA and OTZ, thank you both for the insight you have provided over the last several years. I for one, appreciate the raw data.

 

Alright. Use that insider knowledge/psychic ability to give us a number. How many pilots hit the streets this fall when we furlough? I need to know if I can still buy this boat..