Which is why I used the term sustained at those prices. It was mentioned in another post that the airlines would adapt to $200 per barrel oil, that might be true, but in my opinion as I posted, they will look much different than they look now.
I totally respect your opinion that things might not be that bad, in fact I hope you are right, I’m simply saying that I disagree.

 

Take those lemons, and make some lemonade.

You realize that airlines in distress is all they need to greenlight some new mergers and acquistions? DOJ won't stand in the way when the airlines can say that they are flirting with failure due to high oil prices.

 

I think most are just absolutely worn down by an industry and a career that was always going to be so good in the future, the promise of the next contract. It has been catastrophe upon catastrophe, bad beat on top of bad beat. No one knows what will happen over the next few months, but none of it looks good.
I see zero consolidation, that is a phantom savior that some hold to for sanity. Oil at $200.00 will more likely result in liquidation rather then consolidation.
Alaska is in pretty good condition, our hedges and liquidity buy us probably 36 months. That’s a lot more then most, but the discouragement meter for those struggling to survive, for commuters hoping for a better QOL has to be pegged.
Prdu- your a fun guy, take the dogs for a walk, hang out with the wife and kid, enjoy. I am afraid you understand economics about as well as your favorite president understands it. I am pretty sure his great energy policies just sunk your career. I sure hope I am wrong!

 

Considering your track record, you can rest easy.

 

I sincerely hope you are right!

 

The only thing you’ve ever predicted correctly were the JCBA pay rates. You’re 1 for about 100. Even a broken orange clock is right twice a day.

 

He's probably right about consolidation... nobody is likely to pull the trigger until the dust settles. Anything already in the works will be on hold for now.

 

Mr. Z. Like no kidding I'm utterly stunned these words came out your mouth. Have you conveniently forgotten all your Nostradamus prophecies over the past months? I'm beginning to think you might have multiple personalities.

 

You're right. Until "the new normal." And that's what this conversation is about right? Sustained high oil prices, which will force airlines to look to each other for scale and route consolidation.

 

To be fair, most of the information he shared came prior to the actual invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent events that have followed. Would those predictions have come true otherwise, I guess we’ll never know.