Do you honestly think any of us give a flying fock where your money is??? Holy sheep turds batman, you really can't be that self centered...

No. Wait, I'm wrong you are...

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I really don’t care what you think. The dude said I was all in on BTC…. I was just stating, while 16% is a rather large position, it is a far cry from all in. I know you are way smarter then me, I mean you must be a QX skygod, just look how awesome you are…. Let me guess, you put in 22 at QX, cause your so awesome. Did you know, Cathie Wood says BTC to 1,000,000 by 2030…. Who knows, she said TSLA to 4,000 and got laughed at by almost every analyst. Most financial advisors suggest a 2 to 4% position in BTC, but heck, you don’t care, you have been getting it perfect your whole life, just look where you are🥴🥴🥴
And Dude, I didn’t bring up BTC, he keeps doing that.

 

For someone who doesn’t care what others think, you really like going around swinging your crypto potfolio, A plan pension that about 80% of your coworkers don’t have, and rumors that are about 95% wrong.

I’d think you’d be out on the line on April 1 with 100s of other pilots, but shoot, those barnacles don’t clean themselves off the bottom of the boat, right?

 

Ha... so wrong. But it doesn't matter. Your posts are a joke.

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A lot of market analysts have a price target for Alaska set around $85 per share. I doubt the board would sell for anything less than that and would probably demand several percent more. The sale price would probably fall between $80 or $105 per share.

Airline stocks are in a weird place right now. Their current value is higher than where they should be based on current travel demand, but also they're priced much lower than they would be if travel makes a full comeback. Current prices have some hope for the future baked in but also some uncertainty.

Alaska's share price has tracked pretty close to the other US carriers which IMO undervalues Alaska. Domestic travel is coming back faster than foreign travel, Alaska has the lowest operating costs of any non-ULCC, and Alaska has the strongest balance sheet. We should be trading at a premium, but we're not. Investors seem to be trading airline stocks as a block rather than looking at each individual player. Alaska stock has a ways to run baring and unforseen circumstances...

Which leads us to world events, specifically Russia/Ukraine. The knee jerk reaction is for oil prices to surge and airline stocks to plunge, but maybe that's just a short term reaction? As strong as our sanctions have been, they still aren't targeting Russia's energy exports. And even if the western nations stopped importing Russian oil, it would probably still find its way onto the market via China. So unless Russia itself decides to keep its oil off the market (unlikely), the world's supply of oil hasn't changed.

As far as sanctions go, the freezing of Russia's foreign currency reserves is what's causing the most market instability. This move was the financial nuclear option, it's never been done on this scale and Putin didn't think the west would ever do it. Russia holds a half a trillion dollars in currency reserves. Without access to that money, their economy will crumble. That's why the value of the ruble has dropped and Russia won't open their stock market for fear of a massive crash.

Freezing Russia's foreign assets has backed Putin into a corner. This risks him starting a wider war but it also means Ukraine might actually win and Putin could lose his grip on power. That's a wide range of outcomes when thinking of how to value a stock. A full on European war and Alaska's stock goes towards $20. A return to stability and Alaska's stock goes to $100. If you're on the board of directors and you're considering share price with a 5, 10,15 year time horizon, you're probably not going to sell today, there are just too many variables. The same goes for a buying entity. It's just too hard to price anything, and maybe you want to horde your cash until things blow over.
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This is the best part about going to work. Not having to watch the news, read or look into world events.

It’s so great having so many: lawyers, doctors, epidemiologists, socio economic experts and geo political experts sitting right next to me for hours on end.

My favorite thing is when you don’t even have to ask them to share their expert opinions on the world. They just tell you, sometimes non stop for up to five or six hours!


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That makes sense.

Yes, oil is a global commodity. Also OPEC typically has unused production capacity, since they try to manage the global price point... so they should be able to ramp up to offset at least part of any actual shortfalls which develop. They do not want prices through the roof... that both damages economies and in this day and age forces consumers to green alternatives, from which they won't return. OPEC takes the long-term view.


Could be. Definite uncertainty right now.

 

The 4 years after the Alaska merger were the strongest financially in airline history. The two years post pandemic were not financially challenging with the government bailout.

 

One other unknown is what the feds will ALLOW by way of merger. WN has a pretty huge market share. Would the antitrust guys even permit a merger or acquisition? Would someone have to give up some Hawaii flying to make it happen? Assuming it could happen at all? NK and F9 combining would up their domestic market share to market share to what..? Maybe 8%? AS and any of the Big Four would be well over that. Maybe 25-26%?
With this administration wanting to show its antitrust bonafides any merger with a larger carrier would sure be no slam-dunk.

 

I'm sorry if my post caused you distress. It's normal for people with cluster B personality disorders to lose the ability to think abstractly so don't get down on yourself. There's hope. DBT therapy has proven to be effective.