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Spirit and Frontier… just the beginning

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Old 02-24-2022 | 05:50 PM
  #341  
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Originally Posted by 9mikemike
Outlook for clear skies and smooth sailing. No merger anywhere in the forecast. Amen. Alaska will continue to do what they have always done. It works, they are comfortable with it and it is durable. Returning to single fleet is like hiring 500 pilots. Competing in a volatile furl market with only NEO/MAX creates higher profitability than flights flown…More pilots not needed. 190 seats instead of 150 seats is again many pilots not needed. The ability to profitably throttle expansion back to idle and coast is exceptionally durable. Alaska does not need or want to ever do any East coast flying or East coast to mid con flying….They do not want or need to have a hub off of the West coast. They make staggering profits of the CC program…Profitability that requires no pilots or airplanes. The cost for another airline to attempt a hostile take over is far beyond the value they would gain. Seattle is not that important to anyones operation except Alaskas. The four Major airlines in the country are not interested in the merger game. JetBlue does not have the horsepower to attempt a merger and Alaska has zero interest in them or their type of operation. Spirit/Frontier will be years in the process of cleaning up the mess they have created. Sun Country-not a chance. It brings nothing….Hawaiian-not a chance. Alaska has no use for what they are. And no desire to again spend hundreds of millions getting rid of an entire Airline worth of airplanes…..
If anyone at Alaska is foolish enough to be hanging on hoping for a mythical merjer….Sad times ahead for them.
This belongs on https://www.reddit.com/r/confidentlyincorrect/
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Old 02-24-2022 | 06:01 PM
  #342  
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24 years of “being bought or buying”…..Understanding the language that Alaska speaks with. Actually listening to the answers given to operational and growth questions. Disregarding 100% of what the “10% club” have to say. Disregarding 100% what the “training department”and “senior check-airman” have to say. Disregarding 100% of what the “airline analysts and bloggers” have to say. Other than that. I have no more or less info than the next guy. There have been two mergers…30 years apart..viewed both times by Alaska Airlines leadership as necessary but regrettable.
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Old 02-24-2022 | 07:23 PM
  #343  
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Originally Posted by 9mikemike
Outlook for clear skies and smooth sailing. No merger anywhere in the forecast. Amen. Alaska will continue to do what they have always done. It works, they are comfortable with it and it is durable. Returning to single fleet is like hiring 500 pilots. Competing in a volatile furl market with only NEO/MAX creates higher profitability than flights flown…More pilots not needed. 190 seats instead of 150 seats is again many pilots not needed. The ability to profitably throttle expansion back to idle and coast is exceptionally durable. Alaska does not need or want to ever do any East coast flying or East coast to mid con flying….They do not want or need to have a hub off of the West coast. They make staggering profits of the CC program…Profitability that requires no pilots or airplanes. The cost for another airline to attempt a hostile take over is far beyond the value they would gain. Seattle is not that important to anyones operation except Alaskas. The four Major airlines in the country are not interested in the merger game. JetBlue does not have the horsepower to attempt a merger and Alaska has zero interest in them or their type of operation. Spirit/Frontier will be years in the process of cleaning up the mess they have created. Sun Country-not a chance. It brings nothing….Hawaiian-not a chance. Alaska has no use for what they are. And no desire to again spend hundreds of millions getting rid of an entire Airline worth of airplanes…..
If anyone at Alaska is foolish enough to be hanging on hoping for a mythical merjer….Sad times ahead for them.
I agree with all of that, except the first sentence.
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Old 02-24-2022 | 08:16 PM
  #344  
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Well if oil goes to 150, then every airline is going to be hurting.
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Old 02-24-2022 | 08:28 PM
  #345  
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Originally Posted by 9mikemike
Outlook for clear skies and smooth sailing. No merger anywhere in the forecast. Amen. Alaska will continue to do what they have always done. It works, they are comfortable with it and it is durable. Returning to single fleet is like hiring 500 pilots. Competing in a volatile furl market with only NEO/MAX creates higher profitability than flights flown…More pilots not needed. 190 seats instead of 150 seats is again many pilots not needed. The ability to profitably throttle expansion back to idle and coast is exceptionally durable. Alaska does not need or want to ever do any East coast flying or East coast to mid con flying….They do not want or need to have a hub off of the West coast. They make staggering profits of the CC program…Profitability that requires no pilots or airplanes. The cost for another airline to attempt a hostile take over is far beyond the value they would gain. Seattle is not that important to anyones operation except Alaskas. The four Major airlines in the country are not interested in the merger game. JetBlue does not have the horsepower to attempt a merger and Alaska has zero interest in them or their type of operation. Spirit/Frontier will be years in the process of cleaning up the mess they have created. Sun Country-not a chance. It brings nothing….Hawaiian-not a chance. Alaska has no use for what they are. And no desire to again spend hundreds of millions getting rid of an entire Airline worth of airplanes…..
If anyone at Alaska is foolish enough to be hanging on hoping for a mythical merjer….Sad times ahead for them.
I'll take the other side of that bet..
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Old 02-24-2022 | 11:23 PM
  #346  
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I think people got riled up about mergers because of the Spirit/Frontier announcement. It's the aviation industry and of course anything goes, but IMO (not worth much) I don't see an AS merger anytime soon.
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Old 02-25-2022 | 06:36 AM
  #347  
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Originally Posted by ShyGuy
I think people got riled up about mergers because of the Spirit/Frontier announcement. It's the aviation industry and of course anything goes, but IMO (not worth much) I don't see an AS merger anytime soon.
Recent management and board shenanigans hint that the merger clock is a few minutes closer to midnight than it normally is.
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Old 02-25-2022 | 06:43 AM
  #348  
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Originally Posted by nene
Reminds me of a Poli sci professor asking the class how many think that the US will be here forever (or at least till the end of humankind).....almost everyone raises their hand, then he shows a chart basically showing that 98% of the known "nations" of the world that have ever existed, cease to exist. How many Romans thought they had the world by the shorthairs? Everything has a first and last time.
US will likely be around in some form (perhaps by another name) for a very long time. We have vast resources and very wide moats... and they'll seem even wider when your naval forces are getting picked off by attack submarines. If push comes to shove, imagine what a resistance/insurgent movement would look like in the inter-mountain west, deep south, Texas, etc That has held true through the revolutionary war, civil war, both world wars, and the cold war. Closest we came was brits trying again in 1812.... unless you count Hitler's attempt to talk Mexico into invading the US


Same reason Iranian people and society have existed continuously for millennia... hard to dig them out from behind the Zagros mountains. North America, even more so.

The Roman Empire actually existed in some form, name at least, until the late 18th century... it actually slightly overlapped the foundation of the USA.
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Old 02-25-2022 | 06:56 AM
  #349  
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
US will likely be around in some form (perhaps by another name) for a very long time. We have vast resources and very wide moats... and they'll seem even wider when your naval forces are getting picked off by attack submarines. If push comes to shove, imagine what a resistance/insurgent movement would look like in the inter-mountain west, deep south, Texas, etc That has held true through the revolutionary war, civil war, both world wars, and the cold war. Closest we came was brits trying again in 1812.... unless you count Hitler's attempt to talk Mexico into invading the US


Same reason Iranian people and society have existed continuously for millennia... hard to dig them out from behind the Zagros mountains. North America, even more so.

The Roman Empire actually existed in some form, name at least, until the late 18th century... it actually slightly overlapped the foundation of the USA.
I could see the US breaking apart into 3 or 4 separate countries. It may happen in our lifetimes at the rate we're going. Our kids will very likely be dealing with it.
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Old 02-25-2022 | 07:06 AM
  #350  
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Originally Posted by ShyGuy
I think people got riled up about mergers because of the Spirit/Frontier announcement. It's the aviation industry and of course anything goes, but IMO (not worth much) I don't see an AS merger anytime soon.
Except the SEC filing giving the top executives golden parachutes should a merger occur. And the fact that AS just became the smallest fish in the top 10 pond.

There are no mer VX's to buy that would really stave off a bigger fish from buying us this time, especially now with Frontier and Spirit merging.
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