What's your source?

 

That's the old OTZ we know and love. Making predictions that he couldn't possibly know.

Last week the economy was overheated with full employment and high inflation. Now we're heading straight into recession.

I know you all love your bad news porn, but please try to keep it consistent.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...p?srnd=premium


https://investor.alaskaair.com/stati...8-cfc1fdd86cd4

filing looks like a 3-5% reduction.

 

https://nypost.com/2022/03/09/heres-...ck-on-flights/




US airlines cutting back on flights over skyrocketing oil prices

By Ariel Zilber
March 9, 2022 11:06am Updated


US airlines have begun to scale back the number of flights they are offering to customers, citing the skyrocketing cost of fuel that has been exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Alaska Air said it will reduce its offerings by as much as 5% in the first half of this year citing “the sharp rise in fuel costs.” Allegiant Airlines will cut flights by somewhere between 5% and 10% in the second quarter, the company’s chief financial officer said.


Allegiant’s financial chief said the company plans to scale back its flight schedule primarily during times of weaker demand. His comments were reported by Bloomberg News.


Air travel industry observers fear that high gas prices at the pump will force consumers to cancel vacation plans and make them less likely to fly.

Airlines must make the choice of either allowing higher fuel costs to eat into their profits or passing the expense onto the consumer and forcing them to pay more for their seats.


The average American motorist was forced to pay a record price at the pump on Tuesday as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to disrupt global energy shipments and gooses the cost of gas.

The national average price of a gallon of gasoline was $4.25 as of Wednesday morning, according to AAA data. The latest numbers shatter the previous record of $4.11 established in July 2008.

Analysts are warning that prices could get even worse in the days ahead — especially if geopolitical tensions between Russia and Western nations escalate.

US crude was down more than 5% in early morning trading on Wednesday, selling for $116 a barrel. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell 5.4% to $121.1 per barrel.

Americans aren’t the only ones who are feeling the squeeze of higher energy prices, which is hampering the travel industry’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

Global airline capacity dipped 0.1% this week to 82 million seats, and remains 23% below the corresponding week in pre-pandemic 2019, according to aviation data firm OAG.

Total scheduled airline capacity in North East Asia in the week to Monday dropped 4.5% from the previous week, more than any other region, while international capacity to and from the region remains 88% below the corresponding week in 2019.

 

Except for probably not even China wants to be 70% dependant on Russia oil.

 

It’s funny because I think you are a great guy, but comments like these display why most pilots work to 65, why most are terrible at investing. Pennies become millions in our industry… ok news can be terrible news to an industry where overhead is only sustainable with significant continuous revenue. And yes, unlike the crazy 15% on the far far left believe, our economy will run on oil for a long long time or people will starve. If oil stays above $100 a recession will occur if not already here, but your right, it should fix the sky high inflation.

 

I have a bad feeling about not only the rest of this year, but also next year. I don't see oil or inflation coming down anytime soon.


I'll say this, I'd hate to be on the bottom of a list right now. Especially one that is 12,000+.

 

A pilot wouldn’t be any better off at the bottom of a 3000 pilot list. At least the majors have retirements, I agree with you though, retirements won’t be enough to save everyone, but for those at the bottom here, there is nothing that’s going to prevent or even lower potential furlough numbers.

 

​​There are reasons to be more optimistic. The price of oil is already down off its highs. There are several reasons to believe oil might not spike any higher. First off, OPEC countries always cheat and export more than their stated quotas when prices are high. They can't resist. Second, Russian oil will find its way onto the world market, via China or some other route, that's just the way these things work. And third, the United States has excess capacity. US fracking operators took a huge hit during COVID and hundreds of wells were shut down. US fracking is a price stabilizing force but it lags because it takes a long time to spool up operations.

 

For those who need a translation of that press release:

"We are having terrible staffing issues and 737 Max delivery issues, so we'll be using this fuel price increase (even though we are hedged substantially against it) as our excuse to 'reduce' capacity while we put out our fires."