SAN Base opening, finally…
#241
Prime Minister/Moderator

Joined: Jan 2006
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Likes: 689
From: Engines Turn or People Swim
I’m gonna “do math,” which is always risky, but here’s my back-of-the-napkin tinfoil-hat take.
Management said roughly a 25% reduction across LAX + SFO over the next two bids. If you assume that gets split roughly evenly, call it ~13% per bid — and to make it appropriately Alaska, assume worst-case numbers.
SFO CA BPL: 214
13% of 214 ≈ 28.
Round it Alaska-style: ~30 displaced.
LAX CA BPL: 269
13% of 269 ≈ 35.
Again, worst-case: ~36, but if we want to “Alaska math” our way conservative, call it ~30 from SFO + 36 from LAX = 66 displaced captains in round one.
Now, pair that with what’s actually being added:
SAN is getting ~80 CA vacancies, plus the VP said ~20–30 system upgrades on top of that. Even if we low-ball it to 15 real upgrades, that still means the number of total upgrades (SAN + system-wide) exceeds the number of displacements.
This is where the human-factors roulette wheel comes in:
• Some senior FOs will chase upgrades.
• Some junior CAs who are currently commuting may decide SAN is better than downgrading.
• Others may choose to downgrade rather than commute.
• Nobody can model that behavior cleanly — but the math still leans toward more upgrades than displacements, not a downgrade bloodbath.
With conservative numbers, I get something like:
66 displacements
≈ 80 SAN vacancies + 15 low-ball upgrades
→ Net ~29–31 upgrades
Again, that’s lowballing the system-wide upgrade piece and assuming maximum displacement.
Nothing here looks like the sky is falling. If anything, SAN plus the system upgrades create enough suction that most of the turbulence gets absorbed.
As for PBP, between the IT outage and the federal shutdown, nobody should be expecting anything above about three percent. Hope for more, but I’m gonna gamble mine on Ohio state football future national camps to double it
that would also track with the hiring class of 20 next week puts down to 40 vacancies still left. this San Diego base opening plus additional upgrades will create about 50 additional vacancies getting us to the 90s hiring in Q1 for a total of 130 any of us thought. Skys not falling
Management said roughly a 25% reduction across LAX + SFO over the next two bids. If you assume that gets split roughly evenly, call it ~13% per bid — and to make it appropriately Alaska, assume worst-case numbers.
SFO CA BPL: 214
13% of 214 ≈ 28.
Round it Alaska-style: ~30 displaced.
LAX CA BPL: 269
13% of 269 ≈ 35.
Again, worst-case: ~36, but if we want to “Alaska math” our way conservative, call it ~30 from SFO + 36 from LAX = 66 displaced captains in round one.
Now, pair that with what’s actually being added:
SAN is getting ~80 CA vacancies, plus the VP said ~20–30 system upgrades on top of that. Even if we low-ball it to 15 real upgrades, that still means the number of total upgrades (SAN + system-wide) exceeds the number of displacements.
This is where the human-factors roulette wheel comes in:
• Some senior FOs will chase upgrades.
• Some junior CAs who are currently commuting may decide SAN is better than downgrading.
• Others may choose to downgrade rather than commute.
• Nobody can model that behavior cleanly — but the math still leans toward more upgrades than displacements, not a downgrade bloodbath.
With conservative numbers, I get something like:
66 displacements
≈ 80 SAN vacancies + 15 low-ball upgrades
→ Net ~29–31 upgrades
Again, that’s lowballing the system-wide upgrade piece and assuming maximum displacement.
Nothing here looks like the sky is falling. If anything, SAN plus the system upgrades create enough suction that most of the turbulence gets absorbed.
As for PBP, between the IT outage and the federal shutdown, nobody should be expecting anything above about three percent. Hope for more, but I’m gonna gamble mine on Ohio state football future national camps to double it
that would also track with the hiring class of 20 next week puts down to 40 vacancies still left. this San Diego base opening plus additional upgrades will create about 50 additional vacancies getting us to the 90s hiring in Q1 for a total of 130 any of us thought. Skys not falling
Might an extreme bleeding-edge junior CA or two get downgraded if they're not willing to commute? Maybe. We'll have to wait and see.
#242
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Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2005
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It’s not a percentage, you are inputting the base position number. So if you put 30, you’re saying you want it if in the top 30 physical spots of LAX FO, not percentage.
I don’t see how you bid your own base and seat but at a higher base position. I guess you could try it? LAX at 30 positions, then SAN, and then back it with LA without any qualifier.
Last edited by ShyGuy; 12-03-2025 at 08:31 PM.
#243
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Joined: Mar 2022
Posts: 258
Likes: 28
Opening a base due to growth is one thing. Opening a base at the expense of around 128 pilots is completely another.
There will be downgrades. At the expense of people from the PNW moving to San Diego and learning the hard way their income will be taxed at 13% and houses their wife likes are 3-5 million.
There will be downgrades. At the expense of people from the PNW moving to San Diego and learning the hard way their income will be taxed at 13% and houses their wife likes are 3-5 million.
SFO and LAX were predominantly VX pilots and there were a bunch that lived in California before the AS acquisition. You were hired 4 years after the AS/VX announcement and 2 years post SLI, and AS had only an LAX base during that time. After SLI, there were a bunch of 737 CAs who jumped ship from the 737 and came over to the Airbus just to be based in SFO. Then you had the sport bidders who jump around base by base to get their 5 moving days off a month who still do it today.
This entire bid, over two bid cycles, is for 90 CAs and 80 FOs out of 3300 pilots on the current seniority list with more new hires incoming in January to fill any vacancies left over. Per the 05-26 bid, LAX has 14 FO slots unfilled and 44 SFO FO slots unfilled because nobody who comes to AS wants to be based in either base (they're at UA or DL where it's like totally a million times better times a million). That also goes for the SFO CAs who bid down there because SFO is the most junior CA and FO base in the system, and both seats drop all of their trips in SFO to pickup trips in other bases. You can be based in any base in Alaska's system and post your garbage trip for grabs, and 75% of the time a SFO pilot will take it and have it up on the trade board.
What happens during any change, or position bid, or JCBA or CBA or anything in 121 is people get affected. There are 3300 AS pilots and San Diego is coming, and it'll affect 5% of this pilot group. 800 pilots already are based in CA and those who don't commute know how marginal income tax works. Most who want San Diego already live down there or have family or homes coming to them thanks to Prop 13 don't get affected much by taxes. You clearly know nothing about California, but many people don't need 4000sqft homes on 2 acres to buy a "$3-5m" home. I also don't think 95% of this pilot group is going to sit here and fight for the bottom .5% of the pilot group who hate their lives already on reserve as a CA and have other pilots junior to them who want their spot.
#244
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Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 672
Likes: 223
Only reason why I bother responding to drivel like this is because there are people applying to Alaska that do see your bot like FUD and can get nervous. There are also HA pilots probably reading these threads wondering why 3 people on here continuously moan and complain about any news that pops up on here that need to read some facts.
SFO and LAX were predominantly VX pilots and there were a bunch that lived in California before the AS acquisition. You were hired 4 years after the AS/VX announcement and 2 years post SLI, and AS had only an LAX base during that time. After SLI, there were a bunch of 737 CAs who jumped ship from the 737 and came over to the Airbus just to be based in SFO. Then you had the sport bidders who jump around base by base to get their 5 moving days off a month who still do it today.
This entire bid, over two bid cycles, is for 90 CAs and 80 FOs out of 3300 pilots on the current seniority list with more new hires incoming in January to fill any vacancies left over. Per the 05-26 bid, LAX has 14 FO slots unfilled and 44 SFO FO slots unfilled because nobody who comes to AS wants to be based in either base (they're at UA or DL where it's like totally a million times better times a million). That also goes for the SFO CAs who bid down there because SFO is the most junior CA and FO base in the system, and both seats drop all of their trips in SFO to pickup trips in other bases. You can be based in any base in Alaska's system and post your garbage trip for grabs, and 75% of the time a SFO pilot will take it and have it up on the trade board.
What happens during any change, or position bid, or JCBA or CBA or anything in 121 is people get affected. There are 3300 AS pilots and San Diego is coming, and it'll affect 5% of this pilot group. 800 pilots already are based in CA and those who don't commute know how marginal income tax works. Most who want San Diego already live down there or have family or homes coming to them thanks to Prop 13 don't get affected much by taxes. You clearly know nothing about California, but many people don't need 4000sqft homes on 2 acres to buy a "$3-5m" home. I also don't think 95% of this pilot group is going to sit here and fight for the bottom .5% of the pilot group who hate their lives already on reserve as a CA and have other pilots junior to them who want their spot.
SFO and LAX were predominantly VX pilots and there were a bunch that lived in California before the AS acquisition. You were hired 4 years after the AS/VX announcement and 2 years post SLI, and AS had only an LAX base during that time. After SLI, there were a bunch of 737 CAs who jumped ship from the 737 and came over to the Airbus just to be based in SFO. Then you had the sport bidders who jump around base by base to get their 5 moving days off a month who still do it today.
This entire bid, over two bid cycles, is for 90 CAs and 80 FOs out of 3300 pilots on the current seniority list with more new hires incoming in January to fill any vacancies left over. Per the 05-26 bid, LAX has 14 FO slots unfilled and 44 SFO FO slots unfilled because nobody who comes to AS wants to be based in either base (they're at UA or DL where it's like totally a million times better times a million). That also goes for the SFO CAs who bid down there because SFO is the most junior CA and FO base in the system, and both seats drop all of their trips in SFO to pickup trips in other bases. You can be based in any base in Alaska's system and post your garbage trip for grabs, and 75% of the time a SFO pilot will take it and have it up on the trade board.
What happens during any change, or position bid, or JCBA or CBA or anything in 121 is people get affected. There are 3300 AS pilots and San Diego is coming, and it'll affect 5% of this pilot group. 800 pilots already are based in CA and those who don't commute know how marginal income tax works. Most who want San Diego already live down there or have family or homes coming to them thanks to Prop 13 don't get affected much by taxes. You clearly know nothing about California, but many people don't need 4000sqft homes on 2 acres to buy a "$3-5m" home. I also don't think 95% of this pilot group is going to sit here and fight for the bottom .5% of the pilot group who hate their lives already on reserve as a CA and have other pilots junior to them who want their spot.
#245
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Joined: Mar 2022
Posts: 258
Likes: 28
[MOD EDIT]
Also, oh wait:
https://www.enginecowl.com/as-aa-slot-lease-lhr/
Almost like you don’t understand how the airline industry works as much as you’d like to think.
The best part is none of what I’ve mentioned ever happens to manifest. Oh wait:
https://www.enginecowl.com/alaska-airlines-lhr-slots/
https://www.enginecowl.com/alaska-airlines-lhr-slots/
Also, oh wait:
https://www.enginecowl.com/as-aa-slot-lease-lhr/
Almost like you don’t understand how the airline industry works as much as you’d like to think.
Last edited by rickair7777; 12-04-2025 at 07:48 AM. Reason: Civility
#246
Also, oh wait:
https://www.enginecowl.com/as-aa-slot-lease-lhr/
Almost like you don’t understand how the airline industry works as much as you’d like to think.
https://www.enginecowl.com/as-aa-slot-lease-lhr/
Almost like you don’t understand how the airline industry works as much as you’d like to think.
#247
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Joined: Mar 2022
Posts: 1,893
Likes: 186
Only reason why I bother responding to drivel like this is because there are people applying to Alaska that do see your bot like FUD and can get nervous. There are also HA pilots probably reading these threads wondering why 3 people on here continuously moan and complain about any news that pops up on here that need to read some facts.
SFO and LAX were predominantly VX pilots and there were a bunch that lived in California before the AS acquisition. You were hired 4 years after the AS/VX announcement and 2 years post SLI, and AS had only an LAX base during that time. After SLI, there were a bunch of 737 CAs who jumped ship from the 737 and came over to the Airbus just to be based in SFO. Then you had the sport bidders who jump around base by base to get their 5 moving days off a month who still do it today.
This entire bid, over two bid cycles, is for 90 CAs and 80 FOs out of 3300 pilots on the current seniority list with more new hires incoming in January to fill any vacancies left over. Per the 05-26 bid, LAX has 14 FO slots unfilled and 44 SFO FO slots unfilled because nobody who comes to AS wants to be based in either base (they're at UA or DL where it's like totally a million times better times a million). That also goes for the SFO CAs who bid down there because SFO is the most junior CA and FO base in the system, and both seats drop all of their trips in SFO to pickup trips in other bases. You can be based in any base in Alaska's system and post your garbage trip for grabs, and 75% of the time a SFO pilot will take it and have it up on the trade board.
What happens during any change, or position bid, or JCBA or CBA or anything in 121 is people get affected. There are 3300 AS pilots and San Diego is coming, and it'll affect 5% of this pilot group. 800 pilots already are based in CA and those who don't commute know how marginal income tax works. Most who want San Diego already live down there or have family or homes coming to them thanks to Prop 13 don't get affected much by taxes. You clearly know nothing about California, but many people don't need 4000sqft homes on 2 acres to buy a "$3-5m" home. I also don't think 95% of this pilot group is going to sit here and fight for the bottom .5% of the pilot group who hate their lives already on reserve as a CA and have other pilots junior to them who want their spot.
SFO and LAX were predominantly VX pilots and there were a bunch that lived in California before the AS acquisition. You were hired 4 years after the AS/VX announcement and 2 years post SLI, and AS had only an LAX base during that time. After SLI, there were a bunch of 737 CAs who jumped ship from the 737 and came over to the Airbus just to be based in SFO. Then you had the sport bidders who jump around base by base to get their 5 moving days off a month who still do it today.
This entire bid, over two bid cycles, is for 90 CAs and 80 FOs out of 3300 pilots on the current seniority list with more new hires incoming in January to fill any vacancies left over. Per the 05-26 bid, LAX has 14 FO slots unfilled and 44 SFO FO slots unfilled because nobody who comes to AS wants to be based in either base (they're at UA or DL where it's like totally a million times better times a million). That also goes for the SFO CAs who bid down there because SFO is the most junior CA and FO base in the system, and both seats drop all of their trips in SFO to pickup trips in other bases. You can be based in any base in Alaska's system and post your garbage trip for grabs, and 75% of the time a SFO pilot will take it and have it up on the trade board.
What happens during any change, or position bid, or JCBA or CBA or anything in 121 is people get affected. There are 3300 AS pilots and San Diego is coming, and it'll affect 5% of this pilot group. 800 pilots already are based in CA and those who don't commute know how marginal income tax works. Most who want San Diego already live down there or have family or homes coming to them thanks to Prop 13 don't get affected much by taxes. You clearly know nothing about California, but many people don't need 4000sqft homes on 2 acres to buy a "$3-5m" home. I also don't think 95% of this pilot group is going to sit here and fight for the bottom .5% of the pilot group who hate their lives already on reserve as a CA and have other pilots junior to them who want their spot.
#248
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Joined: Mar 2022
Posts: 1,893
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He doesn't know how anything works. Some of us have watched him complain about the same stuff for years, at multiple different jobs, on another forum. He will continue this path with great confidence, which will continue to make him a bitter and unenjoyable CA to fly with (as evidenced by people on this very forum, and the fact that he circulates in the SEA FO chat groups). It is sad that he won't do some work on himself to make even a little bit of change.
#249
Prime Minister/Moderator

Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 44,895
Likes: 689
From: Engines Turn or People Swim
The comical thing is that I owned a home in the SF Bay and dealt with prop 13. Sure it's better than what I am dealing with in WA but not by as much as you'd think. There are so many add ons to your property tax to pay for schools, open space etc. You can count on your property taxes going up every year. Sure it can't be adjusted to your home's value but it will go up. I'd encourage anyone to open up Zillow and check the housing prices anywhere remotely close to the airport and do some math. The rest of this post is just as false as what I've addressed. Other than the fact that most pilots at AS don't care that a lot of people will be displaced from their bases. Even though some were forced down to SFO on the last reduction bid. It's wild that the pilot group is cheering this on.
There's no point in arguing about domicile shuffles, that's a company business decision. The only pilots at the company who might have any influence on such decisions is the SEA/MEC crowd, and apparently they've been able to block the SAN base for many years. Of course people who live in San Diego county are happy, everybody gets their turn in the barrel in this industry. Don't need to feel bad when it benefits you (because it won't always).
#250
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Joined: Mar 2022
Posts: 258
Likes: 28
Next you're going to tell me that the cheap housing has almost no traffic on the drive to SAN. The comical thing is that I owned a home in the SF Bay and dealt with prop 13. Sure it's better than what I am dealing with in WA but not by as much as you'd think. There are so many add ons to your property tax to pay for schools, open space etc. You can count on your property taxes going up every year. Sure it can't be adjusted to your home's value but it will go up. I'd encourage anyone to open up Zillow and check the housing prices anywhere remotely close to the airport and do some math. The rest of this post is just as false as what I've addressed. Other than the fact that most pilots at AS don't care that a lot of people will be displaced from their bases. Even though some were forced down to SFO on the last reduction bid. It's wild that the pilot group is cheering this on.
Nothing I have posted here is false. I think the only thing that most people on here hope is that only you end up getting reduced so you can finally get some sleep. The rest of the pilot group at Alaska can at least try and be happy that there are 75 737s on order, and more 787s on order that are on the way with more international destinations. The airline is growing, but not at the pace you'd like which is hiring 2000 pilots a year for the next 5 years. United and Delta are doing that though.
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