Nothing personal, but the narrative is spot on.

 

Unfortunately, he would never allow any self-reflection, and actually make a change.

 

No more van tips for you lol

 

I’m gonna “do math,” which is always risky, but here’s my back-of-the-napkin tinfoil-hat take.

Management said roughly a 25% reduction across LAX + SFO over the next two bids. If you assume that gets split roughly evenly, call it ~13% per bid — and to make it appropriately Alaska, assume worst-case numbers.

SFO CA BPL: 214

13% of 214 ≈ 28.

Round it Alaska-style: ~30 displaced.

LAX CA BPL: 269

13% of 269 ≈ 35.

Again, worst-case: ~36, but if we want to “Alaska math” our way conservative, call it ~30 from SFO + 36 from LAX = 66 displaced captains in round one.

Now, pair that with what’s actually being added:

SAN is getting ~80 CA vacancies, plus the VP said ~20–30 system upgrades on top of that. Even if we low-ball it to 15 real upgrades, that still means the number of total upgrades (SAN + system-wide) exceeds the number of displacements.

This is where the human-factors roulette wheel comes in:
• Some senior FOs will chase upgrades.

• Some junior CAs who are currently commuting may decide SAN is better than downgrading.

• Others may choose to downgrade rather than commute.

• Nobody can model that behavior cleanly — but the math still leans toward more upgrades than displacements, not a downgrade bloodbath.

With conservative numbers, I get something like:
66 displacements

≈ 80 SAN vacancies + 15 low-ball upgrades

→ Net ~29–31 upgrades

Again, that’s lowballing the system-wide upgrade piece and assuming maximum displacement.

Nothing here looks like the sky is falling. If anything, SAN plus the system upgrades create enough suction that most of the turbulence gets absorbed.

As for PBP, between the IT outage and the federal shutdown, nobody should be expecting anything above about three percent. Hope for more, but I’m gonna gamble mine on Ohio state football future national camps to double it

that would also track with the hiring class of 20 next week puts down to 40 vacancies still left. this San Diego base opening plus additional upgrades will create about 50 additional vacancies getting us to the 90s hiring in Q1 for a total of 130 any of us thought. Skys not falling

 

oh wow he has to go be top 25%

that’s terrible!!

 

Did you read that Q4 profit was just revised down by 75%

https://m.uk.investing.com/news/sec-...0301?ampMode=1

 

You probably shouldn’t look at PBP as a guaranteed thing, just like a spot as a junior CA

 

Got it. Still profitable.

What about commentary on the math from the post you replied to?

 

Yes, from $0.40 a share down to $0.10 a share. Still a profit if they pull it off. I genuinely want this place to do well. That’s why I said I’m expecting around 3% from coming in 4th and not getting the profit multiplier that would’ve pushed us toward 6%.

I’m pretty sure I said almost the same thing yesterday, but I’m not sure how that came from a displacement doom senario. It felt like you got news that wasn’t nearly as negative as you feared, and your instinct was still to drop a little bad news confetti on the table.

I wish I could take on some of the weight you’re clearly carrying, the stuff that makes every bit of good news look like a storm cell with a hook echo. Praying for you, brother. I hope your bike trails stay dry, that you stick the jumps you’re chasing, and that the bike you want pops up with a ridiculous discount

Crack the heart open a bit. Let a little light in. Riding around with everything set to “low IFR” gets old fast.

 

It was super well thought out. We both arrived at the same numbers to be displaced. He seems like a super smart guy but IMO gives the company way too much credit in terms of new captains to be hired. Another problem is a lot of very senior FOs will upgrade and sit reserve in SAN. Some of the coolest people I’ve flown with. Who found a really solid niche flying trips out of SNA and avoiding the drive up to LAX.

Im of the mindset that the company shouldn’t be downgrading their pilots before an SLI. This will have a big impact on 40-60 pilots careers, earning potential and retirement. At an airline that has traditionally not provided their pilots with a reliable or enviable career track. It seems extremely callous but that’s been my general impression of this place since I started working here.