Alaska Air Hiring
09-04-2022 | 08:11 AM
#6941
On Reserve
Joined: Dec 2015
Posts: 124
Likes: 31
It's time to think about payrates in a whole new way. This pilot shortage has taken all conventional wisdom up a dark alley, beaten it within an inch of its life, and stole its wallet.
Let me explain how the airline industry works 2022 to 2027...
Passenger demand will outstrip airline capacity. Airlines will have pricing power unlike we've seen since deregulation. Airlines that have trained crews will make money, a lot of money. Airlines that don't have enough trained crews will lose money.
Payrates that look obscene and unreasonable could very well make economic sense to large carriers. When you spread $500 per hour across 170 passengers, it's only a few bucks per person. In an environment where there are not enough seats moving between cites, costumers will have no choice but to pay up. I'm guessing that the airlines will make more off of this pilot shortage than the pilots by many orders of magnitude. They can afford to pay us but don't expect management to tell you exactly how much you're worth to them in this strange new world. This is every corporation's dream scenario: a restricted supply environment. And, they didn't even need to cheat by doing price and capacity collusion. File the pilot shortage under sh$t happens, but don't forget that we pilots are the PIN number to management's free money ATM. Get your fair share of the prize.
Capitalism, for all its ability to distribute wealth and reward productivity, has one major bug, it often produces extreme and unpredictable outcomes. This pilot shortage will become an economic case study that's written about in every Econ 101 text. We need to recognize our worth and grab that cash while we can. It's only a matter of time until the feds lower requirements and the flight schools start pumping out 250 hour wannabe millionaires.
In terms of our new Alaska contract, we need to get paid more than any other narrow body operator. Our career needs to be competitive with a United career. In the short run, it's essential for management to meet the moment. It's in their best interests to make alaska the best place to work. We could grow into the pilot shortage and gobble up market share simply because we have planes and pilots to fly them. That's the new secret sauce.
Let me explain how the airline industry works 2022 to 2027...
Passenger demand will outstrip airline capacity. Airlines will have pricing power unlike we've seen since deregulation. Airlines that have trained crews will make money, a lot of money. Airlines that don't have enough trained crews will lose money.
Payrates that look obscene and unreasonable could very well make economic sense to large carriers. When you spread $500 per hour across 170 passengers, it's only a few bucks per person. In an environment where there are not enough seats moving between cites, costumers will have no choice but to pay up. I'm guessing that the airlines will make more off of this pilot shortage than the pilots by many orders of magnitude. They can afford to pay us but don't expect management to tell you exactly how much you're worth to them in this strange new world. This is every corporation's dream scenario: a restricted supply environment. And, they didn't even need to cheat by doing price and capacity collusion. File the pilot shortage under sh$t happens, but don't forget that we pilots are the PIN number to management's free money ATM. Get your fair share of the prize.
Capitalism, for all its ability to distribute wealth and reward productivity, has one major bug, it often produces extreme and unpredictable outcomes. This pilot shortage will become an economic case study that's written about in every Econ 101 text. We need to recognize our worth and grab that cash while we can. It's only a matter of time until the feds lower requirements and the flight schools start pumping out 250 hour wannabe millionaires.
In terms of our new Alaska contract, we need to get paid more than any other narrow body operator. Our career needs to be competitive with a United career. In the short run, it's essential for management to meet the moment. It's in their best interests to make alaska the best place to work. We could grow into the pilot shortage and gobble up market share simply because we have planes and pilots to fly them. That's the new secret sauce.
09-04-2022 | 08:13 AM
#6942
On Reserve
Joined: Apr 2020
Posts: 90
Likes: 13
It's time to think about payrates in a whole new way. This pilot shortage has taken all conventional wisdom up a dark alley, beaten it within an inch of its life, and stole its wallet.
Let me explain how the airline industry works 2022 to 2027...
Passenger demand will outstrip airline capacity. Airlines will have pricing power unlike we've seen since deregulation. Airlines that have trained crews will make money, a lot of money. Airlines that don't have enough trained crews will lose money.
Payrates that look obscene and unreasonable could very well make economic sense to large carriers. When you spread $500 per hour across 170 passengers, it's only a few bucks per person. In an environment where there are not enough seats moving between cites, costumers will have no choice but to pay up. I'm guessing that the airlines will make more off of this pilot shortage than the pilots by many orders of magnitude. They can afford to pay us but don't expect management to tell you exactly how much you're worth to then in this strange new world. This is every corporation's dream scenario: a restricted supply environment. And, they didn't even need to cheat by doing price and capacity collusion. File the pilot shortage under sh$t happens, but don't forget that we pilots are the PIN number to management's free money ATM. Get your fair share of the prize.
Capitalism, for all its ability to distribute wealth and reward productivity, has one major bug, it often produces extreme and unpredictable outcomes. This pilot shortage will become an economic case study that's written about in every Econ 101 text. We need to recognize our worth and grab that cah while we can. It's only a matter of time until the feds lower requirements and the flight schools start pumping out 250 hour wannabe millionaires.
Let me explain how the airline industry works 2022 to 2027...
Passenger demand will outstrip airline capacity. Airlines will have pricing power unlike we've seen since deregulation. Airlines that have trained crews will make money, a lot of money. Airlines that don't have enough trained crews will lose money.
Payrates that look obscene and unreasonable could very well make economic sense to large carriers. When you spread $500 per hour across 170 passengers, it's only a few bucks per person. In an environment where there are not enough seats moving between cites, costumers will have no choice but to pay up. I'm guessing that the airlines will make more off of this pilot shortage than the pilots by many orders of magnitude. They can afford to pay us but don't expect management to tell you exactly how much you're worth to then in this strange new world. This is every corporation's dream scenario: a restricted supply environment. And, they didn't even need to cheat by doing price and capacity collusion. File the pilot shortage under sh$t happens, but don't forget that we pilots are the PIN number to management's free money ATM. Get your fair share of the prize.
Capitalism, for all its ability to distribute wealth and reward productivity, has one major bug, it often produces extreme and unpredictable outcomes. This pilot shortage will become an economic case study that's written about in every Econ 101 text. We need to recognize our worth and grab that cah while we can. It's only a matter of time until the feds lower requirements and the flight schools start pumping out 250 hour wannabe millionaires.
Enjoy Labor Day!
S
09-04-2022 | 02:47 PM
#6944
Banned
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 1,241
Likes: 0
It's time to think about payrates in a whole new way. This pilot shortage has taken all conventional wisdom up a dark alley, beaten it within an inch of its life, and stole its wallet.
Let me explain how the airline industry works 2022 to 2027...
Passenger demand will outstrip airline capacity. Airlines will have pricing power unlike we've seen since deregulation. Airlines that have trained crews will make money, a lot of money. Airlines that don't have enough trained crews will lose money.
Payrates that look obscene and unreasonable could very well make economic sense to large carriers. When you spread $500 per hour across 170 passengers, it's only a few bucks per person. In an environment where there are not enough seats moving between cites, costumers will have no choice but to pay up. I'm guessing that the airlines will make more off of this pilot shortage than the pilots by many orders of magnitude. They can afford to pay us but don't expect management to tell you exactly how much you're worth to them in this strange new world. This is every corporation's dream scenario: a restricted supply environment. And, they didn't even need to cheat by doing price and capacity collusion. File the pilot shortage under sh$t happens, but don't forget that we pilots are the PIN number to management's free money ATM. Get your fair share of the prize.
Capitalism, for all its ability to distribute wealth and reward productivity, has one major bug, it often produces extreme and unpredictable outcomes. This pilot shortage will become an economic case study that's written about in every Econ 101 text. We need to recognize our worth and grab that cash while we can. It's only a matter of time until the feds lower requirements and the flight schools start pumping out 250 hour wannabe millionaires.
In terms of our new Alaska contract, we need to get paid more than any other narrow body operator. Our career needs to be competitive with a United career. In the short run, it's essential for management to meet the moment. It's in their best interests to make alaska the best place to work. We could grow into the pilot shortage and gobble up market share simply because we have planes and pilots to fly them. That's the new secret sauce.
Let me explain how the airline industry works 2022 to 2027...
Passenger demand will outstrip airline capacity. Airlines will have pricing power unlike we've seen since deregulation. Airlines that have trained crews will make money, a lot of money. Airlines that don't have enough trained crews will lose money.
Payrates that look obscene and unreasonable could very well make economic sense to large carriers. When you spread $500 per hour across 170 passengers, it's only a few bucks per person. In an environment where there are not enough seats moving between cites, costumers will have no choice but to pay up. I'm guessing that the airlines will make more off of this pilot shortage than the pilots by many orders of magnitude. They can afford to pay us but don't expect management to tell you exactly how much you're worth to them in this strange new world. This is every corporation's dream scenario: a restricted supply environment. And, they didn't even need to cheat by doing price and capacity collusion. File the pilot shortage under sh$t happens, but don't forget that we pilots are the PIN number to management's free money ATM. Get your fair share of the prize.
Capitalism, for all its ability to distribute wealth and reward productivity, has one major bug, it often produces extreme and unpredictable outcomes. This pilot shortage will become an economic case study that's written about in every Econ 101 text. We need to recognize our worth and grab that cash while we can. It's only a matter of time until the feds lower requirements and the flight schools start pumping out 250 hour wannabe millionaires.
In terms of our new Alaska contract, we need to get paid more than any other narrow body operator. Our career needs to be competitive with a United career. In the short run, it's essential for management to meet the moment. It's in their best interests to make alaska the best place to work. We could grow into the pilot shortage and gobble up market share simply because we have planes and pilots to fly them. That's the new secret sauce.
This is all 100 percent correct. Finally, someone really understands. I am expecting 1,000.00 an hour for NB’s in 2023. ALPA’s analyst’s are idiots, they are not as smart as the average line pilot. I am mean we are experts in every field, especially economics, I think that’s why almost every pilot works until 65.😂😂😂. This will be a fun post to revisit in a few years!
09-04-2022 | 03:56 PM
#6945
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 44,847
Likes: 654
From: Engines Turn or People Swim
This is all 100 percent correct. Finally, someone really understands. I am expecting 1,000.00 an hour for NB’s in 2023. ALPA’s analyst’s are idiots, they are not as smart as the average line pilot. I am mean we are experts in every field, especially economics, I think that’s why almost every pilot works until 65.😂😂😂. This will be a fun post to revisit in a few years!
Will the union push way outside the envelope? Will the company realize where this could be headed? I dunno.
Six months ago nobody thought regional pilots would be making $200-400k. I thought the regionals would shrink to oblivion before that happened. I literally do not recall anyone suggesting pay raises of that magnitude.
09-04-2022 | 04:57 PM
#6946
Banned
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 1,241
Likes: 0
The establishment folks may be prone to confirmation bias or just plain disbelief when confronted with a new reality. I've seen it (and been guilty) in the military. But I learned my lesson... sometimes the paradigm changes. Not often, but this looks like one of those times.
Will the union push way outside the envelope? Will the company realize where this could be headed? I dunno.
Six months nobody thought regional pilots would be making $200-400k. I thought the regionals would shrink to oblivion before that happened. I literally do not recall anyone suggesting pay raises of that magnitude.
Will the union push way outside the envelope? Will the company realize where this could be headed? I dunno.
Six months nobody thought regional pilots would be making $200-400k. I thought the regionals would shrink to oblivion before that happened. I literally do not recall anyone suggesting pay raises of that magnitude.
09-04-2022 | 05:11 PM
#6947
Line Holder
Joined: Mar 2022
Posts: 1,886
Likes: 183
That is not an honest assessment. Most, like 95% of regional FO’s will be making 100 x 95 x 12= 114k a year… seems about right for anyone at that skill level involving that much cost and time. Most, like 95% of the regional CA’s will make (most are no where near the top of a 20 year scale)… so 150-170 an hour or 150-193k, depending wether they are working 80-95 hours a month. I think that is a very sustainable wage. I have been asked not to post any more numbers with regard to NB rates, an ask I feel obligated to comply with but it’s safe to say, I don’t think NB pilots will make the same as WB pilots, hopefully I am woefully behind in my ability to see the paradigm shift.
09-04-2022 | 05:13 PM
#6948
Banned
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,112
Likes: 140
That is not an honest assessment. Most, like 95% of regional FO’s will be making 100 x 95 x 12= 114k a year… seems about right for anyone at that skill level involving that much cost and time. Most, like 95% of the regional CA’s will make (most are no where near the top of a 20 year scale)… so 150-170 an hour or 150-193k, depending wether they are working 80-95 hours a month. I think that is a very reasonable wage. I have been asked not to post any more numbers with regard to NB rates, an ask I feel obligated to comply with but it’s safe to say, I don’t think NB pilots will make the same as WB pilots, hopefully I am woefully behind in my ability to see the paradigm shift.
Of course no new ground will broken at Alaska. The company and the old guard are both far too committed to the status quo. It will be up to other more hungry carriers to push the pilot pay envelope.
AAG was a follower when it came to $215 for QX. Not until 4 or 5 other regionals had already made the move did they feel compelled to respond in kind.
If we reach a TA first in this cycle, I fully expect it to be more of the milquetoast modest gains that define this culture.
The regionals have doubled their pay in the last 8 years. Doubled. I don't fault them for it. The pay was near criminal before the 1500 hour rule.
As they say, "a rising tide lift all boats." The entry level of our industry just got a huge boost. Every airline pilot should now anticipate those waves to ripple upwards through the industry. Maybe not 100% gains, but significant.
09-04-2022 | 05:20 PM
#6949
Line Holder
Joined: Sep 2020
Posts: 33
Likes: 0
That is not an honest assessment. Most, like 95% of regional FO’s will be making 100 x 95 x 12= 114k a year… seems about right for anyone at that skill level involving that much cost and time. Most, like 95% of the regional CA’s will make (most are no where near the top of a 20 year scale)… so 150-170 an hour or 150-193k, depending wether they are working 80-95 hours a month. I think that is a very sustainable wage. I have been asked not to post any more numbers with regard to NB rates, an ask I feel obligated to comply with but it’s safe to say, I don’t think NB pilots will make the same as WB pilots, hopefully I am woefully behind in my ability to see the paradigm shift.
09-04-2022 | 05:45 PM
#6950
Banned
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 1,241
Likes: 0
My understanding is a rate has been agreed too, our bonus is miles apart right now. JR manning, p/u, and reassignment pay should be worked next week. Sharing any numbers, wether they are accurate or not will only create turmoil. I am hopeful we will cross the finish line this week or next. The schmuck clause will hopefully protect us, should our analysis be way off.
And since I know nothing this shouldn’t bother anyone. I was told QX is in the final stages of being sold😱. November everyone, NOVEMBER!
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