flysnoopy is notoriously cynical about the state of this airline. And thankfully often incorrect.

 

Downgrades honestly would not surprise me. We are overstaffed. And the cost effective argument only really works for multi-fleet, narrowbody+widebody carriers. Downgrades and furloughs are costly for them. A single fleet carrier? Downgrades and furloughs are not expensive. You can get rid of them quick and bring them back quick. SFO has been a major bust ever since the pandemic. And it's also where the most junior CAs seem to be. A downgrade would basically make the most junior CAs in SFO and SEA FOs again, unless a displacement bid opens in a more senior base (eg, LAX). Then that would result in multiple displacements.

Cheapest way for them to do it would be to publish a displacement CA reduction only in SFO and SEA CA. That will knock out the bottom of the CA list with people who couldn't have held ANC, PDX, or LAX CA.


Our hiring for late 2023 was to build up for 2024's deliveries and flying. With the ongoing Boeing issues with no end in sight, they have to re-adjust. I'll even venture a guess that we are not going to be able to take the planned 2025 deliveries either. If that comes in less than planned, expect no hiring and very possible likeliness of downgrades later this year.

 

Trouble is, I wrote this exact same thing December of 2023 and I am always RIGHT! This is exactly the state of hiring right now. It could change, 2025 is a long way off but Snoopy is 100% right now, that is the plan.

 

I said 100 first, I’m hoping it’s zero but right now my best guess is 46. Right now the company is saying 100. Obviously, this could all get worked out, union could help, economy could change, Boeing could get there act together. I’m hopeful, but also a realist. I think they are going to downgrade, PBS has really worked out far better than anticipated for the company so far. I just think the number rings in about half of where the company is right now.

 

I'm hopeful that the union and the company can figure out that CA on IL costs as much as an FO on reserve.

The union should be very motivated to keep as many captains in their seats as possible with a merger snapshot pending. A lot is riding on that, and not just for junior captains.

 

I feel like downgrades will not help with pilot retention but I also feel like messaging from managment has indicated retention is no longer a concern.

 

I would agree that attrition is no longer an issue in the eyes of management, especially seeing that we lost one or two last month according to the union information.

 

why are we downgrading we still have 15 airplanes or so coming this year and max 9s and 8s still coming next year still need to staff those planes

 

And why are trying to buy an almost bankrupt airline with another 1100 pilots and a crappy Amazon contract that needs to be staffed yet.
If the company wants downgrades, this place will implode.
I’m in the “ I hope the merger fails” camp.

 

One answer is that the company needs to get bigger to hold up against the big-four in the long term. Organic growth is hard because you can't just go down to Airline Depot and load up your cart with all the gates and slots you need. Even harder these days because boeing.

Other answer is it's an ego/vanity project on the part of top execs.

Truth might be somewhere in between, but I think mostly the former.