The last few vacancies that drove upgrades were to provide the staffing for the scheduled deliveries. The 15 deliveries you mentioned, are already staffed as well as many more that we are not getting. I wouldn’t bank on getting all 15 of those either, it is Boeing we are talking about after all. Other factors also contribute, future load factors, economic variables etc. If we are overstaffed for the summer flying imagine what fall and winter looks like. Typically downgrades also equal furloughs, but furloughs are more difficult to recover if you need pilots again, downgrades are cheap and easy, one sim and everyone is still on property. In addition PBS, while nice that it is easier to bid, requires fewer pilots.

 

It’s highly likely the seniority list snapshot has already been taken. In at least DL/NW, UA/CO and VX/AS mergers, constructive notice was the date of the merger announcement and the snapshot date.

 

Very safe to assume that it will be strict DOH for all hires after early Dec 2023.

 

1Q analyst call didn't seem to hint at furloughs. You might read into ST's commentary that since the original plan was to replace 900's with Max, they can simply keep the 900's longer if they need capacity and the Max's haven't shown up. Also a mention of compensation from Boeing.

If the travel demand tanks, that's a different issue but despite all the doomsayers not only does recreational travel seem to remain a priority for consumers, business travel is now coming back too.

 

Most of those aircraft are replacements for older 900s. The Q1 earnings call they said they wouldn't get rid of as many aircraft to maintain capacity and they would also increase utilization. Which is why we are almost 50% red eyes in Seattle. We aren't downgrading anyone yet but like other posters have said it's cheap and easy. We have all seen stepping over dollars to pick up pennies here.

 

I'd be happy to take an EIL again.

 

Deliveries are coming, we are getting 4 more airplanes this month. We aren't that overstaffed....

 

It isn't cheap and easy when you have to potentially furlough FOs to facilitate the downgrades.

 

When I spoke to a rep the downgrades could happen without furloughs.

 

we have 10 built waiting to be delivered and 12 next year coming. Shane tacked said in the investor call about head count vs fleet count

“We watch that closely. We had to staff up a bit throughout the end of last year to get ready for this year and the spring, but I don't think that were going to be in a significant drag position from a cost perspective. And to the extent that we are having conversations with Boeing in terms of compensating us for that.”

sounds like they are going to ask Boeing to pay us for the extra overhead cost from the lack of plane

seems like we are in good shape

on the fleet plan no max 9’s next year but my guess is they don’t wanna plan for any and wait see on those

but 12 max 8’s next year so nothing huge but much better than the doom and gloom in here

i would tend to agree if load factors and yield suddenly drop then yes I do think we downgrade

but on the Q1 investor call business is good so far

but takes one world event to shake things up in a hurry