Perhaps you should take a look at this little gem thats in front of every call and investor slide:

Forward looking statements

This presentation as well as oral statements made by officers or directors of Allegiant Travel Company, its advisors and affiliates (collectively or separately, the "Company“) will contain forward-looking statements that are only predictions and involve risks and uncertainties. Forward-looking statements may include, among others, references to future performance and any comments about our strategic plans. There are many risk factors that could prevent us from achieving our goals and cause the underlying assumptions of these forward-looking statements, and our actual results, to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, our forward-looking statements. These risk factors and others are more fully discussed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Any forward-looking statements are based on information available to us today and we undertake no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of future events, new information or otherwise. The Company cautions users of this presentation not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which may be based on assumptions and anticipated events that do not materialize.

 

OK, hiring slowed and "we" didn't get a one year upgrade. Hell, we may not get a four-year upgrade. IDK.

However, attrition the last four months has been 16 (5, 3, 4, 4) and 11 in the last three months. Kind of shoots down the 10-15 in 2019. My guess is that attrition will pick up in the next few months (after the holidays and disgruntled pilots leaving, looking at you CB).

That doesn't mean we will get closer to upgrade, but attrition will be higher than what the company is expecting, at least I believe it will.

 

Of course. But in between
- "forward looking statements..." from company during investor calls;
- "a guy during rgs heard somebody saying..."
Which one would you pick?

 

For the record our fleet manager was the one saying this and showing it. It wasn’t just made up by some guys there. I find it odd this would be talked about/shown if there was absolutely zero chance of it happening. Again I’m not saying it is.

Like I said time will tell. I just found it interesting. As others have said - the investor call in a few weeks will say a lot.

 

Before the last big surge in hiring (the first being in 2006/2007) they only hired about two classes of 6 or 12 in the fall only.

And again, before the last big hiring cycle, there were FOs who didn't even have an option to upgrade for 5-6 years.

 

Look for a new hire class in April.

Attrition is up quite a bit and there are a number of people (12-15) who have been hired by Delta and Fed Ex that have not sent in resignations yet.

 

April 2020

 

LOL. Nope.

 

I think there are a couple more leaving for Spirit and Frontier as well (FOs)...

 

As much as I'd really enjoy seeing a class show up in April it really goes against everything the company has been putting out. I believe in the last town hall they said staffing will be perfect for March then officially be at an overstaffed level starting in April and going forward until we "grow into" the pilot group. We have a lot of growing to do to get anywhere near their desired pilot/airframe # (which I feel they'll find somewhere along the way doesn't work). An April class at this company would hit the line somewhere around June if there's no wait on OE so maybe they know something we don't if that's true.