The AA Flow-Thru Agreements MUST END
11-11-2019 | 05:22 PM
#71
Line Holder
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 864
Likes: 37
From: Guppy
I just based my opinion on past actual numbers and knowledge of the military pipeline and available pilots. For every 2 people I know that got hired by a major airline after separating/retiring, I know one that is still waiting on a call or with a regional. I guess that makes me delusional that this supply will dry up.
Your statement of most pilots find careers elsewhere may have been true when the airlines paid crap and were not hiring. That is not the case these days.
I don't know where a rickair post is, but the military will continue to make pilots and they will continue to separate at a high rate. The accumulator is not running out. Over 2000 military pilots available each year is going to continue until the end of time.
I separated at 13 years, and many more have done so and will continue to do so bearing a $100k per year increase in military pay or a $100k decrease per major airline pay per year.
I believe it is delusional to think that military pilots will not continue to seek per pay and quality of life. The supply IS there.
Your statement of most pilots find careers elsewhere may have been true when the airlines paid crap and were not hiring. That is not the case these days.
I don't know where a rickair post is, but the military will continue to make pilots and they will continue to separate at a high rate. The accumulator is not running out. Over 2000 military pilots available each year is going to continue until the end of time.
I separated at 13 years, and many more have done so and will continue to do so bearing a $100k per year increase in military pay or a $100k decrease per major airline pay per year.
I believe it is delusional to think that military pilots will not continue to seek per pay and quality of life. The supply IS there.
It is a fact that the military fixed-wing pilot supply is shrinking. The evidence was provided up-thread. Not only is this pool shrinking, but by the nature of the work, it won't be noticed for years because of required commitments. This idea that the US Armed Forces can simply will military pilots into existence is based on an emotional argument, not one supported by the facts.
excargodog's comment about pilots finding careers elsewhere refers to the outrageous idea that AA is going to somehow get anything approaching a majority of military aviators that are separating and joining the airlines. He wasn't talking about military pilots leaving aviation. And even if you assume 2,000 military aviators separating each year continuing into perpetuity (which I don't believe for a second), there might be 1,000 that are the types of pilots the majors are looking for. Others, like virtually all of the helicopter pilots, will wind up in the regionals or other transport-category opportunities to flesh out their resume. It's virtually unheard of to see a 250-hour fixed-wing PIC with a wet CMEL guy get hired by the majors, which is what an overwhelming majority of the helo guys will have. Those guys might have an advantage compared to one of their peers at a regional after they've spent some time at the regionals, and I think it's reasonable to expect that at some point, they're a more desirable candidate than a strictly civilian guy from the same regional class, but that process can take years, further diluting the numbers.
Of that 1,000 immediately "hireable" military pilots, they will be divided up across AA, UA, DL, WN, FX, and 5X, among others. And quite frankly, what at AA would make a military guy want to go there over another one on that list? That's his point. AA is in last place on that list for just about every metric a prospective new hire might be looking at. I'm not saying they won't get theirs, they will, but AA isn't the holy grail that it perhaps once was to a newly-separated military pilot. So if you're generous and assume AA breaks even, they might get 200 of those 1000 pilots. If AA is hiring 1000 pilots a year for quite a while (which is likely conservative), they'll get 500ish from flow, 200ish from military, leaving 300ish to be filled off-the-street.
When AA was "only" hiring 500 pilots, getting roughly 250 from flow and 200 or so military pilots was attainable, leaving just a very select few true OTS civilian hires. As the need for more hiring increases and the supply of military pilots slowly but steadily decreases, it leaves only one possibility to pick up the slack.
Flow + military is not a tenable option for AA going forward. It's a simple math problem and it doesn't add up.
11-11-2019 | 06:09 PM
#73
Gets Summer Off
Joined: May 2009
Posts: 667
Likes: 0
From: AA
I’m happy to tell it like it is and complain as much as the next guy, but to be fair, I do believe AA probably wins on seniority progression for the next year or three. Another possibly desirable point is that lots of people seem to want to live around DFW, for some reason...
11-12-2019 | 03:50 PM
#75
Banned
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 4,208
Likes: 5
It's going to be a problem. I finally got seriously motivated to leave the regionals in significant part because the quality of new FO's plummeted abruptly as staffing pressures first caused the elimination of most screening standards, and then caused the training dept to start dragging candidates through the system.
11-12-2019 | 04:14 PM
#76
Line Holder
Joined: Sep 2017
Posts: 65
Likes: 0
Herein lies the flaw(s) in your logic. As the old investing adage goes, "past performance is not indicative of future results." You're basing your information on historical data and anecdotes, and ignoring the current reality being presented to you.
It is a fact that the military fixed-wing pilot supply is shrinking. The evidence was provided up-thread. Not only is this pool shrinking, but by the nature of the work, it won't be noticed for years because of required commitments. This idea that the US Armed Forces can simply will military pilots into existence is based on an emotional argument, not one supported by the facts.
excargodog's comment about pilots finding careers elsewhere refers to the outrageous idea that AA is going to somehow get anything approaching a majority of military aviators that are separating and joining the airlines. He wasn't talking about military pilots leaving aviation. And even if you assume 2,000 military aviators separating each year continuing into perpetuity (which I don't believe for a second), there might be 1,000 that are the types of pilots the majors are looking for. Others, like virtually all of the helicopter pilots, will wind up in the regionals or other transport-category opportunities to flesh out their resume. It's virtually unheard of to see a 250-hour fixed-wing PIC with a wet CMEL guy get hired by the majors, which is what an overwhelming majority of the helo guys will have. Those guys might have an advantage compared to one of their peers at a regional after they've spent some time at the regionals, and I think it's reasonable to expect that at some point, they're a more desirable candidate than a strictly civilian guy from the same regional class, but that process can take years, further diluting the numbers.
Of that 1,000 immediately "hireable" military pilots, they will be divided up across AA, UA, DL, WN, FX, and 5X, among others. And quite frankly, what at AA would make a military guy want to go there over another one on that list? That's his point. AA is in last place on that list for just about every metric a prospective new hire might be looking at. I'm not saying they won't get theirs, they will, but AA isn't the holy grail that it perhaps once was to a newly-separated military pilot. So if you're generous and assume AA breaks even, they might get 200 of those 1000 pilots. If AA is hiring 1000 pilots a year for quite a while (which is likely conservative), they'll get 500ish from flow, 200ish from military, leaving 300ish to be filled off-the-street.
When AA was "only" hiring 500 pilots, getting roughly 250 from flow and 200 or so military pilots was attainable, leaving just a very select few true OTS civilian hires. As the need for more hiring increases and the supply of military pilots slowly but steadily decreases, it leaves only one possibility to pick up the slack.
Flow + military is not a tenable option for AA going forward. It's a simple math problem and it doesn't add up.
It is a fact that the military fixed-wing pilot supply is shrinking. The evidence was provided up-thread. Not only is this pool shrinking, but by the nature of the work, it won't be noticed for years because of required commitments. This idea that the US Armed Forces can simply will military pilots into existence is based on an emotional argument, not one supported by the facts.
excargodog's comment about pilots finding careers elsewhere refers to the outrageous idea that AA is going to somehow get anything approaching a majority of military aviators that are separating and joining the airlines. He wasn't talking about military pilots leaving aviation. And even if you assume 2,000 military aviators separating each year continuing into perpetuity (which I don't believe for a second), there might be 1,000 that are the types of pilots the majors are looking for. Others, like virtually all of the helicopter pilots, will wind up in the regionals or other transport-category opportunities to flesh out their resume. It's virtually unheard of to see a 250-hour fixed-wing PIC with a wet CMEL guy get hired by the majors, which is what an overwhelming majority of the helo guys will have. Those guys might have an advantage compared to one of their peers at a regional after they've spent some time at the regionals, and I think it's reasonable to expect that at some point, they're a more desirable candidate than a strictly civilian guy from the same regional class, but that process can take years, further diluting the numbers.
Of that 1,000 immediately "hireable" military pilots, they will be divided up across AA, UA, DL, WN, FX, and 5X, among others. And quite frankly, what at AA would make a military guy want to go there over another one on that list? That's his point. AA is in last place on that list for just about every metric a prospective new hire might be looking at. I'm not saying they won't get theirs, they will, but AA isn't the holy grail that it perhaps once was to a newly-separated military pilot. So if you're generous and assume AA breaks even, they might get 200 of those 1000 pilots. If AA is hiring 1000 pilots a year for quite a while (which is likely conservative), they'll get 500ish from flow, 200ish from military, leaving 300ish to be filled off-the-street.
When AA was "only" hiring 500 pilots, getting roughly 250 from flow and 200 or so military pilots was attainable, leaving just a very select few true OTS civilian hires. As the need for more hiring increases and the supply of military pilots slowly but steadily decreases, it leaves only one possibility to pick up the slack.
Flow + military is not a tenable option for AA going forward. It's a simple math problem and it doesn't add up.
11-12-2019 | 05:18 PM
#77
spin 2
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 441
Likes: 1
From: the big one
I hope you don’t get rid of it.. I’ve been in the regionals for 12 years left seat for 7 years now. I have no degree and therefore can’t get hired. Left my previous regional for said flow. Looking like 7 years till I flow as of now. No failed check rides no violations. No accidents nothing!, not even a speeding ticket. Can’t get a call to save my life. Hoping the flow works for me. Just a normal guy who likes to fly airplanes, I love being home with the wife and kids. Never been in any trouble. Don’t know what the secret is to getting hired. I guess I just have bad luck..
11-12-2019 | 06:08 PM
#78
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 2,329
Likes: 4
From: A320 CA
I hope you don’t get rid of it.. I’ve been in the regionals for 12 years left seat for 7 years now. I have no degree and therefore can’t get hired. Left my previous regional for said flow. Looking like 7 years till I flow as of now. No failed check rides no violations. No accidents nothing!, not even a speeding ticket. Can’t get a call to save my life. Hoping the flow works for me. Just a normal guy who likes to fly airplanes, I love being home with the wife and kids. Never been in any trouble. Don’t know what the secret is to getting hired. I guess I just have bad luck..
11-12-2019 | 07:03 PM
#79
Line Holder
Joined: May 2013
Posts: 72
Likes: 0
One thing not mentioned about the pilot shortage in the military (and specifically the 2,000 number mentioned in the USAF), is that this shortage of pilots isn’t a shortage of pilots to fill cockpits; it’s really a shortage of pilots to fill staff-coded billets. Yes, there is a shortage of experienced IPs, but that’s because many of them are at a point in their careers where the machine wants them to go to staff, taking them out of the cockpit. But, by that point they have likely reached their commitment and leave instead, and most of which leave for the airlines.
There is no shortage of young pilots in fighter/heavy squadrons. In my neck of the woods teaching UPT, we have a boatload of new pilots who keep getting their IFF and B-course dates continuously pushed to the right due to backlog at each level in the pipeline. Hell, we can’t even crank out pilots through UPT fast enough with the aircraft fleets breaking at record rates since we are abusing them so much. Hence the “great ideas” like PTN to cut corners and create pilots faster. But I digress...
Bottom line, at least on the USAF side, is that currently well over 90% of pilots that reach their initial commitments and decide to leave do so for the airlines, since they are current and are at the pinnacle of their military flying careers. Those who stay longer for that sweet $35k bonus were going to do so anyways, and most of whom will spend the latter half of their careers rotting at a desk.
There is no shortage of young pilots in fighter/heavy squadrons. In my neck of the woods teaching UPT, we have a boatload of new pilots who keep getting their IFF and B-course dates continuously pushed to the right due to backlog at each level in the pipeline. Hell, we can’t even crank out pilots through UPT fast enough with the aircraft fleets breaking at record rates since we are abusing them so much. Hence the “great ideas” like PTN to cut corners and create pilots faster. But I digress...
Bottom line, at least on the USAF side, is that currently well over 90% of pilots that reach their initial commitments and decide to leave do so for the airlines, since they are current and are at the pinnacle of their military flying careers. Those who stay longer for that sweet $35k bonus were going to do so anyways, and most of whom will spend the latter half of their careers rotting at a desk.
11-12-2019 | 07:49 PM
#80
Hire me
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 406
Likes: 0
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