The AA Flow-Thru Agreements MUST END
11-08-2019 | 10:52 PM
#43
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,215
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From: Capt
I could see AA stopping the flow, because they got so desperate. If that happened, they would absorb all their regionals into mainline, so no more flow...
I think AA/DAL/UAL will get so desperate they will either absorb their regionals, hire directly off the street with no experience (like the military), or both.
I think AA/DAL/UAL will get so desperate they will either absorb their regionals, hire directly off the street with no experience (like the military), or both.
11-09-2019 | 02:10 AM
#44
Goin Streakin!
Joined: Apr 2013
Posts: 70
Likes: 0
From: Hogless
With the bright possibilities of movement I’m hoping for 3 years of stagnation. Age 68 doesn’t solve everything but does help build a pool to pick from. Unfortunately I’m hearing the rumors. Good news is the ones who mention it are the same ones who say they aren’t sticking around.
11-09-2019 | 05:01 AM
#45
Line Holder
Joined: Sep 2017
Posts: 65
Likes: 0
You SERIOUSLY believe that half of AA new hires are going to be military? Really?
Total USAF fixed wing pilot training is only about 1100 a year, including guard and reserve. And the active duty side is about 2000 pilots below their authorized strength. Everybody who isn’t guard or reserve gets a 10 year active duty service commitment start after UPT and considerable bonuses to stay on active duty until retirement.
Realistically, that’s 1000 pilots per year at best SPLIT AMONGST ALL THE MAJORS.
AA alone will be retiring nearly 800 pilots next year who will have to be replaced, assuming no growth, do you seriously think AA will get 400 military pilots - 40% of the whole number - with United, Delta, SWA, Alaska, UPS, FEDEX, and everybody else wanting the same people?
You’ll be fortunate to get 200 military pilots a year in the coming years. The rest will either be OTS hires - which again puts you in competition to everybody else - and the remains of the AA wholly owned regional pilots after everybody else has hired the ones they thought were the best.
That’s reality.
Total USAF fixed wing pilot training is only about 1100 a year, including guard and reserve. And the active duty side is about 2000 pilots below their authorized strength. Everybody who isn’t guard or reserve gets a 10 year active duty service commitment start after UPT and considerable bonuses to stay on active duty until retirement.
Realistically, that’s 1000 pilots per year at best SPLIT AMONGST ALL THE MAJORS.
AA alone will be retiring nearly 800 pilots next year who will have to be replaced, assuming no growth, do you seriously think AA will get 400 military pilots - 40% of the whole number - with United, Delta, SWA, Alaska, UPS, FEDEX, and everybody else wanting the same people?
You’ll be fortunate to get 200 military pilots a year in the coming years. The rest will either be OTS hires - which again puts you in competition to everybody else - and the remains of the AA wholly owned regional pilots after everybody else has hired the ones they thought were the best.
That’s reality.
-The Air Force isn't the only service that makes pilots. Between the Navy, Marine Corps, and Army you have a much larger pool. A 1000 military pilot per year pool is inaccurate.
-You may want to check the "considerable bonus" numbers. $25k-35k/year is not considerable. Those Air Force pilots were going to stay in anyways.
Just my opinion, but I believe you will see between 40 and 50% military hires at AA continue for the foreseeable future. There doesn't appear to be any reason that number will change. One reason I could see is if the USAF or other services actually do offer considerable bonuses in the neighborhood of 75k to 100k per year. That would probably get people the stay in vice going to the Airlines.
11-09-2019 | 05:03 AM
#46
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 338
Likes: 0
From: 737 FO
Then AA would have complete control of their new hires, could bring back Neuro Cog Testing, the Astronaut Physical (including stool sample), raking Cecil’s leaves, and whatever other criteria you deem necessary to ensure the new hires are “worthy.”
You’ll have about as much luck with that argument as your present one. The Flow Through is at this point a staffing scheme for the wholly owned regionals, and seemingly is working. Why would mgt. change that? Certainly there are “outliers” who wouldn’t make it to a legacy any other way, but then again the above described process got us some real tools too. I'd say it’s about even.
11-09-2019 | 05:49 AM
#47
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Sep 2016
Posts: 774
Likes: 0
Flow is a huge carrot, 5-6 year regional CA's flowing is fantastic. Many will not be very competitive when they flow. You think:
4,500tt, 2000tpic
1 type rating
4 year degree
no LCA
no failures
no networking
no advertised volunteer work
no masters
no consultant app review
Is a problem child, or not a competitive teir 1 candidate?
And those flight times are when they flow not 6-12 months prior when Delta and United would be screening them. Many may not even have apps at UPS, Fedex, or Southwest.
4,500tt, 2000tpic
1 type rating
4 year degree
no LCA
no failures
no networking
no advertised volunteer work
no masters
no consultant app review
Is a problem child, or not a competitive teir 1 candidate?
And those flight times are when they flow not 6-12 months prior when Delta and United would be screening them. Many may not even have apps at UPS, Fedex, or Southwest.
11-09-2019 | 06:04 AM
#48
Perennial Reserve
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 14,177
Likes: 236
-AA is already getting 40%+ military.
-The Air Force isn't the only service that makes pilots. Between the Navy, Marine Corps, and Army you have a much larger pool. A 1000 military pilot per year pool is inaccurate.
-You may want to check the "considerable bonus" numbers. $25k-35k/year is not considerable. Those Air Force pilots were going to stay in anyways.
Just my opinion, but I believe you will see between 40 and 50% military hires at AA continue for the foreseeable future. There doesn't appear to be any reason that number will change. One reason I could see is if the USAF or other services actually do offer considerable bonuses in the neighborhood of 75k to 100k per year. That would probably get people the stay in vice going to the Airlines.
-The Air Force isn't the only service that makes pilots. Between the Navy, Marine Corps, and Army you have a much larger pool. A 1000 military pilot per year pool is inaccurate.
-You may want to check the "considerable bonus" numbers. $25k-35k/year is not considerable. Those Air Force pilots were going to stay in anyways.
Just my opinion, but I believe you will see between 40 and 50% military hires at AA continue for the foreseeable future. There doesn't appear to be any reason that number will change. One reason I could see is if the USAF or other services actually do offer considerable bonuses in the neighborhood of 75k to 100k per year. That would probably get people the stay in vice going to the Airlines.
A July 30 2019 report to Congress
https://prhome.defense.gov/Portals/5...%20release.pdf
All three services have a shortfall of not only fixed wing but rotary wing pilots that has worsened every year since sequestration took place. The USAF alone is currently 2000 pilots short of authorized production and while the long term goal is to increase production, that is limited by several chokepoints including lack of IPs. But even once production can be increased, there will be a ten year lag period (due to the active duty service commitment incurred during training) before the majority of these individuals would be available for airline hiring.
An excerpt:
The DoD is experiencing a significant pilot shortfall. While the shortfall reaches across each of the military departments, the Air Force is experiencing the largest shortfall. Military aviation capabilities have been in high demand over the last 17 years of combat operations. The challenges of operating at this sustained level of engagement, coupled with reduced budgets, has resulted in inadequate funding for pilot production and aircraft material readiness accounts. These shortfalls have been further exacerbated by high attrition among experienced pilots who have transitioned to opportunities within the commercial aviation industry. Commercial aviation hiring is at an all-time high, as major airlines are experiencing an unprecedented number of mandatory retirements, additional Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) requirements, and industry growth. The last time the airline industry experienced elevated levels of hiring (above 3,000 pilots/yr), it was limited to the five years between 1997 and 2001. By contrast, the major airlines have hired an average of 4,000 new pilots over the last five years and current industry forecasts estimate that they will require at least 4,000-5,000 pilots per year, for the next ten years.
It’s demographics. I’m not sure you followed Rickair’s comment about draining the accumulator but it is entirely apt - especially for the state of the US military fixed wing community. The bodies that have historically been there are not there. The vast majority of those pilots available today started their military training over a decade ago and have been in the pipeline ever since, some fir over 20 years. In the meantime, training of new pilots in the military has decreased constantly since the end of the Cold War. Even rotary wing warrants are in short supply, while the airlines are having and anticipating unprecedented hiring.
Last edited by Excargodog; 11-09-2019 at 06:34 AM.
11-09-2019 | 06:07 AM
#49
Line Holder
Joined: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,226
Likes: 29
From: baller, shot caller
With the bright possibilities of movement I’m hoping for 3 years of stagnation. Age 68 doesn’t solve everything but does help build a pool to pick from. Unfortunately I’m hearing the rumors. Good news is the ones who mention it are the same ones who say they aren’t sticking around.
Ah what the hell, might as well go ahead and increase the retirement age for old times sake so we can relive 2008 since that was so much fun. Can't do nothin' half way in this industry!
11-09-2019 | 06:47 AM
#50
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 1,285
Likes: 0
From: 175 CA
Age 68 and a recession would indeed "make airlines great again."
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