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Old 11-07-2019, 10:13 AM   #21  
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Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 2,702

I say bring on the average Joe's hires. The more the better. Show up with a great attitude, don't get entitled about being given the job, and put effort into making the company profitable. And hire more helicopter guys, they're always the most fun.

Signed, an "average Joe" hire, non-astronaut, non-fighter pilot, and C172 "commander".
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Old 11-07-2019, 10:20 AM   #22  
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I've was literally hearing this pilot shortage crap back in the 80s.
Yeah yeah this hiring boom is bigger. yada yada yada.
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Old 11-07-2019, 10:27 AM   #23  
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Agree, the RTP guys have been a blast to fly with. Way better than any cadet/pipeliner. Rebel Scum Rule!

Since weíve discussed the pilot pool of the fixed wing side, which most wont need a regional for more than a checkride...whatís the size of the RTP eligible pool? Seems pretty big to me.
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Old 11-07-2019, 10:53 AM   #24  
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Hahaha if AA drops the flow program they'll get to sit back and watch as their regionals start to hemorrhage pilots.
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Old 11-07-2019, 11:08 AM   #25  
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Originally Posted by Approach1260 View Post
Hahaha if AA drops the flow program they'll get to sit back and watch as their regionals start to hemorrhage pilots.
Yea honestly thatís how I see this playing out. Theyíre up to their eyeballs in the flow programs. To stop the flow would likely require them to cough up a ton of money to stop the bleeding of regional pilots going literally anywhere else.

Because letís be honest... The pay is less than the contract regionals. The pilot contracts are worse than the contract regionals. And without flow most likely wouldnít show up at all unless it was for a very specific base. They would have to improve all those things to make the WOs competitive and that would cost them millions.

And Iíve heard that AA is making changes to the hiring process at all 3 WOs in 2020. They want a larger hand in the process and a say in who is hired. And I donít blame them.

There are systemic issues with the regional industry right now. There has been a steady decline in the average aptitude of new FOs entering the industry. In my opinion this is a natural byproduct of the relatively massive amount of movement weíre starting to see. The focus is no longer on the quality of time but the quantity of time and it is painfully obvious. Get my 500 hours and interview at a regional. ďGet my 1,000 hours RATP and go to class at a regional. Upgrade once Iíve got 1,000 hours as an FO at my regional (2,000 total time). Become qualified to be a Check Airman once Iíve got 500 hours in the left seat (2,500 total time).Ē There is a lot of inbred and systemic issues starting to come up. A vast amount of inexperience in both seats. We all know whatís going to fix it... But we donít like the means to that end. Itís the same thing that has always triggered change in this industry.
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Old 11-07-2019, 11:08 AM   #26  
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Originally Posted by 6ix9ineYearFlow View Post
The American Airlines flow-thru agreement with its wholly-owned subsidiaries need to end immediately. Here's why:

Starting in 2020, the airline in industry is going to see over 6,000 mainline pilots (legacy, major, national, U/LCC, cargo, etc.) hired per year for the foreseeable future. SIX THOUSAND. United is hiring 4,000 between now and 2022 (averages around 1,300 per year), Delta just announced they're hiring over 1,300 pilots in 2020 which will likely continue for years to come to keep up with their retirements, American Airlines is hiring around 1,300 pilots next year and will continue to hire at least 900 per year to offset retirements, Southwest & JetBlue are on a hiring streak of roughly 600 per year and indicate they will continue to do so. FedEx is both growing and dealing with their own retirements with a forecast of around 800 pilots being hired next year, UPS is dealing with the same issues and will be hiring well over 300 next year. Spirit announced a huge aircraft order last month and will be hiring 600-700 pilots per year for growth for at least the next 4 years. Frontier is hiring at least 30 per month for at least the next 6 years to build up their pilot group given their large purchase order of aircraft. Moxy is allegedly starting up within the next 2 years and will need to hire a few hundred pilots just to get kickstarted. Allegiant is hiring 100-200 pilots per year as well. I guess there is also Sun Country and all those other ACMI outfits as well, but meh.

All that said, six thousand pilots is a conservative estimate for number of pilots needed per year at mainline. That's A LOT of movement. Let's consider the applicant pools --

Regional Airlines. Regionals have roughly 20,000 pilots on their books; given that mainline hires mostly captains, the applicant pool is in the ballpark of 10,000 pilots. Of those, approximately 10% are lifers with another 5-10% that are unhireable due to DUIs, criminal backgrounds, too many checkride failures, etc. That leaves us with 8,500ish eligible regional captains. Now consider the pool of pilots with a pilot resume that differentiates them from the standard "I'm a pilot, I fly" resume (undergrad or graduate degree, volunteer work, veteran status, leadership roles, extra type ratings, etc.). Extremely competitive competitive candidates are going to get purged very quickly.

Non-Legacies & ACMI. This one is a tough one to predict. If the company has a decent contract and a pilot on property is already a captain at a place like Spirit or Kalitta, it'd be tough to leave to give up the pay, schedule, retirement, etc. The people most tempted to leave are going to be first officers at these companies. Interestingly enough, places like Spirit, Frontier, and Allegiant have been to known to hire guys with little to no TPIC time in order to keep them from getting snagged up from the legacy carriers with time in an A320 type. That said, the competitive pool - so long as TPIC is a discriminator - is probably lower than people would think.

Corporate & Fractionals. They definitely have a shot at a major if they want it, but they'll likely need a higher experience threshold to be considered since the majors (or at least the legacies) like 121 experience. This applicant pool is hard to predict in terms of numbers and overall competitiveness.

Military. In any given year, there's roughly 800-1,200 military fixed-wing pilots leaving the service. Not all of them are going to pursue a career in the airlines, but given the career opportunity, many nowadays likely are strongly considering it.

Now consider the current flow-thru agreement with AA....
Approximately 50% of all new hires from AA are coming from their flow-thru. Meanwhile, most pilots at Envoy, Piedmont, and PSA have applications out to all of the aforementioned companies hiring en masse in 2020 and beyond. Therefore, most of the competitive or desirable candidates in the years ahead are going to get snatched up elsewhere before they ever come close to flowing to mainline. AA thinks the flow-thru is a carrot for keeping their regional carriers staffed - which is true insofar as recruitment goes. However, it blows my mind that AA effectively has zero control in 50% of their new hires throughout this hiring wave.

The flow-thru has allowed some highly experienced regional captains familiar with the AA system come over to mAAinline in recent years which is great for the pilot and great for the company. However, that's simply going to be less and less the case in years ahead. It would be one thing if AA's regional carriers applied the same high level of scrutiny to their pilot new hires as did AA mainline, but given the squeeze on recruiting at the regional levels, there were periods of time where the wholly-owned carriers were hiring everyone with a pulse.

By eliminating the flow-thru, AA can have 100% discretion in their hiring practices and compete for the limited pool of highly competitive candidates rather than relegating 50% of their new hires to come from flow through candidates that were undesirable by other major carriers.

You act as though AA has no way to get rid of an undesirable pilot. Pilot's get fired all the time, hell, Delta has fired many 9E SSP folks, and they only take ~60% of 9E pilots that apply. If Endeavor had a flow, I wouldn't be making over $150K here.
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Old 11-07-2019, 12:58 PM   #27  
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Originally Posted by A330FoodCritic View Post
During my initial Eagle class we had class on Thanksgiving Day, that was my motivation.
No entiendo. You didnít like the quality of yourself?
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Old 11-07-2019, 01:26 PM   #28  
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Originally Posted by Surprise View Post
No entiendo. You didnít like the quality of yourself?
I just thought, what kinda company makes people go to class on Thanksgiving? Friends in other industries cannot believe it. I was brand new, three days out of the military when I started at Eagle.
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Old 11-07-2019, 01:58 PM   #29  
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Position: A320 FO
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Originally Posted by A330FoodCritic View Post
I just thought, what kinda company makes people go to class on Thanksgiving? Friends in other industries cannot believe it. I was brand new, three days out of the military when I started at Eagle.
The same one that provides 24/7/365 transportation to the traveling public.
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Old 11-07-2019, 02:06 PM   #30  
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