The AA Flow-Thru Agreements MUST END
11-09-2019 | 06:59 AM
#51
Gets Everyday Off
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 6,995
Likes: 1
From: Fully Retired
11-09-2019 | 07:04 AM
#52
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Sep 2016
Posts: 774
Likes: 0
Apparently a market share war is coming followed by a price war when economy slows and no one wants to shrink. Airlines don't like making money. The term "capacity discipline" is ancient greek now.
11-09-2019 | 07:06 AM
#53
Line Holder
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 673
Likes: 5
flow is a huge carrot, I would be amazed if an regional pilot would complain about it. The problem, if it there is one, is that now mainline AA hiring standards are exactly are the same as Envoys.
But that is AA's choice.
But that is AA's choice.
11-09-2019 | 07:10 AM
#54
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Sep 2016
Posts: 774
Likes: 0
The regional pilots without flow or ones far away complain the most, they see it as jobs not available to them. It's ok to become a CA though seniority, but not an FO.
11-09-2019 | 07:50 AM
#55
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 4,601
Likes: 0
From: CRJ FO
My understanding is that AA is going to begin having a much bigger say in the WO hiring process beginning in 2020.
11-09-2019 | 08:18 AM
#56
Line Holder
Joined: Sep 2017
Posts: 65
Likes: 0
I think you are delusional.
A July 30 2019 report to Congress
https://prhome.defense.gov/Portals/5...%20release.pdf
All three services have a shortfall of not only fixed wing but rotary wing pilots that has worsened every year since sequestration took place. The USAF alone is currently 2000 pilots short of authorized production and while the long term goal is to increase production, that is limited by several chokepoints including lack of IPs. But even once production can be increased, there will be a ten year lag period (due to the active duty service commitment incurred during training) before the majority of these individuals would be available for airline hiring.
An excerpt:
It’s demographics. I’m not sure you followed Rickair’s comment about draining the accumulator but it is entirely apt - especially for the state of the US military fixed wing community. The bodies that have historically been there are not there. The vast majority of those pilots available today started their military training over a decade ago and have been in the pipeline ever since, some fir over 20 years. In the meantime, training of new pilots in the military has decreased constantly since the end of the Cold War. Even rotary wing warrants are in short supply, while the airlines are having and anticipating unprecedented hiring.
A July 30 2019 report to Congress
https://prhome.defense.gov/Portals/5...%20release.pdf
All three services have a shortfall of not only fixed wing but rotary wing pilots that has worsened every year since sequestration took place. The USAF alone is currently 2000 pilots short of authorized production and while the long term goal is to increase production, that is limited by several chokepoints including lack of IPs. But even once production can be increased, there will be a ten year lag period (due to the active duty service commitment incurred during training) before the majority of these individuals would be available for airline hiring.
An excerpt:
It’s demographics. I’m not sure you followed Rickair’s comment about draining the accumulator but it is entirely apt - especially for the state of the US military fixed wing community. The bodies that have historically been there are not there. The vast majority of those pilots available today started their military training over a decade ago and have been in the pipeline ever since, some fir over 20 years. In the meantime, training of new pilots in the military has decreased constantly since the end of the Cold War. Even rotary wing warrants are in short supply, while the airlines are having and anticipating unprecedented hiring.
-The 40% at AA is fact (atleast this year). I'm not exactly sure of past numbers, but I would bet past years numbers are similar.
-Greater than 1000 military pilots available per year is also fact. Probably more like 2000 per year, but I can't say for certain. Between the years of 2001 to 2012, 2400 pilots left the military each year. 2400>1000.
-The shortfall of military aviators on active duty has nothing to do with the airlines ability to hire the ones that are separating and retiring.
Your statement: "The USAF alone is currently 2000 pilots short of authorized production and while the long term goal is to increase production, that is limited by several chokepoints including lack of IPs."...This has nothing to do with the price of tea in China.
11-09-2019 | 08:42 AM
#57
Line Holder
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 425
Likes: 1
From: Pipers!
Curious if you have any more details? What say do they have now, if any? What would this look like, ie higher mins, cog testing, AA HR reps sitting in on interviews? What if classes don’t meet stability and growth thresholds?
11-09-2019 | 08:53 AM
#58
Perennial Reserve
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 14,181
Likes: 237
Not sure if you think my numbers or my opinion is delusional. My opinion is my opinion. The numbers are correct.
-The 40% at AA is fact (atleast this year). I'm not exactly sure of past numbers, but I would bet past years numbers are similar.
-Greater than 1000 military pilots available per year is also fact. Probably more like 2000 per year, but I can't say for certain. Between the years of 2001 to 2012, 2400 pilots left the military each year. 2400>1000.
-The shortfall of military aviators on active duty has nothing to do with the airlines ability to hire the ones that are separating and retiring.
Your statement: "The USAF alone is currently 2000 pilots short of authorized production and while the long term goal is to increase production, that is limited by several chokepoints including lack of IPs."...This has nothing to do with the price of tea in China.
-The 40% at AA is fact (atleast this year). I'm not exactly sure of past numbers, but I would bet past years numbers are similar.
-Greater than 1000 military pilots available per year is also fact. Probably more like 2000 per year, but I can't say for certain. Between the years of 2001 to 2012, 2400 pilots left the military each year. 2400>1000.
-The shortfall of military aviators on active duty has nothing to do with the airlines ability to hire the ones that are separating and retiring.
Your statement: "The USAF alone is currently 2000 pilots short of authorized production and while the long term goal is to increase production, that is limited by several chokepoints including lack of IPs."...This has nothing to do with the price of tea in China.
But you miss the significance if Rickair’s draining the accumulator analogy.
The average military person being hired today went to UPT over 10 years ago, many over 20 years ago. The military has been training at less than previous rates throughout that entire period of time. The accumulator is running out just as the deep and is ramping up.
11-09-2019 | 09:30 AM
#59
Line Holder
Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,576
Likes: 20
I've flown a few trips with a pilot who was on the recruitment team for many years. He told me that AA is, in fact trying to get as many military pilots as possible into the door, and that they are attempting to get roughly a 50/50 civilian vs military hiring ratio. Considering most Flows are civilian, and they make up roughly half of the new hires, AA has balanced that with military pilots comprising 87% of the 2019 off the street new hires so far.
He also told me that they (AA) are well aware that the military pool of pilots will shrink significantly over the upcoming years, so they are front loading as many as they can now. The number of civilian trained pilots will increase markedly over the next few years as the military pool drains and the flow through numbers remain stagnant or even decrease.
He also told me that they (AA) are well aware that the military pool of pilots will shrink significantly over the upcoming years, so they are front loading as many as they can now. The number of civilian trained pilots will increase markedly over the next few years as the military pool drains and the flow through numbers remain stagnant or even decrease.
11-09-2019 | 09:50 AM
#60
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 793
Likes: 0
From: FO
The AA Flow-Thru Agreements MUST END
It's going to be a problem. I finally got seriously motivated to leave the regionals in significant part because the quality of new FO's plummeted abruptly as staffing pressures first caused the elimination of most screening standards, and then caused the training dept to start dragging candidates through the system.
As a CA I didn't mind training/mentoring the occasional noob but it turned into perpetual IOE with weak (by historical standards) pilots. It turned into a rare treat to fly with an FO who knew his flows and could do a GA or TCAS RA and not get into an UAS without my intervention.
That was annoying. What really concerned me was the fact that the company was going to start dragging these people through upgrade next, and MY financial future depended on these pilots (upgrading without about 20% of the airline experience that I had when I upgraded) not bending metal and thereby getting feed contracts revoked.
Not looking forward to seeing more of the same flowing up to mainline.
Not sure what the regionals are going to do about quality candidates, since they've already about exhausted the accumulator of previously experienced folks waiting in the wings. The need to incentivize *talented* candidates to enter the pipeline.
As a CA I didn't mind training/mentoring the occasional noob but it turned into perpetual IOE with weak (by historical standards) pilots. It turned into a rare treat to fly with an FO who knew his flows and could do a GA or TCAS RA and not get into an UAS without my intervention.
That was annoying. What really concerned me was the fact that the company was going to start dragging these people through upgrade next, and MY financial future depended on these pilots (upgrading without about 20% of the airline experience that I had when I upgraded) not bending metal and thereby getting feed contracts revoked.
Not looking forward to seeing more of the same flowing up to mainline.
Not sure what the regionals are going to do about quality candidates, since they've already about exhausted the accumulator of previously experienced folks waiting in the wings. The need to incentivize *talented* candidates to enter the pipeline.
Facts! Truth! Truth! Truth! Just simple reality of the situation over the last 3 years and going forward. I’ve taken noticed, I’ve heard similar thoughts from other WO captains as well. Most feeling as tho they’re doing a lot of teaching/guiding/mentoring ON THE LINE than they should be. Performing “like” a LCA’s on IOE along with associated career risks, but without the pay and glory.
Makes WO captains strong pilots if you look at it from a different light. Should not be that way. Not on the line in 121 “crew” environment. Overall I’ll be surprised if APA is not fully aware of the situation playing out. I know they do not want to touch WO flow thru or flow back & quality of WO new hires discussed above (50% or more of all AA NH class) with a 50ft pole.
Strategically thinking, APA members need to be more aware. For the sake of future “crew culture dynamics“ and “voting strength of the membership.”
Last edited by SilentLurker; 11-09-2019 at 10:01 AM.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
