I expect them to skip a month in early summer, and maybe again later in the fall. It will be strategic.

By skipping a month, that means that the WO Regional Airlines get to keep a handful of experienced captains which they will need to survive.

AA has done this in the past. In 2019, AA was hiring about 100 per month, but skipped August all together. 2017 they skipped October and December. Both were times that regional captains were needed so it stopped flow. Just increase hiring for a couple months prior, and a month after, and the net gain is the same. But it reduced the number of flows.

Once the AA WO regionals start parking airplanes in the late Spring next year leading into the summer, watch what happens.

 

Poppycock.
The 2019 August had nothing to do with regional staffing, it was the MD displacements that blocked the training center.
AA doesn't give a damn about regional staffing, they need every soul they can hire. Thinking they hire and block flow strategically is just another APC urban legend.
I'd say there are more people with AA interviews from WOs than ever before.

 

Their stated goal for 2022 is to hire 1,800.

 

They you haven't been paying attention. AA is absolutely panicking about regional staffing. Most people do not understand that more passengers at AA are flown on regional jets every day than flown on the entire Airbus fleet. The regional lift is far more important than most people realize.



That was updated about 2 weeks ago. Over 2100 now for 2022, classes of 45 every week for 2022 and to continue "for the foreseeable future". This was first announced a couple weeks ago and again confirmed at RTAG this past weekend.

 

I'm somewhat certain I have more information about this than you do.

AA is only panicking about their mainline staffing. If you are the right candidate, it makes no difference if you come from a WO. They will hire you. They know the numbers.
If the WO feed dies, Skywest has plenty of capacity to sell. It's cheaper to dump 61 million per quarter to the retention programs than pay SKW. It cuts the WO Eagle profits to half. But if mainline can't staff their flying, there is no more AA.

 

First they'll increase the regional pay and work rules more. Then they'll increase the flow. I'd expect it to drop to 1-1.5 years as an RJ Captain, then flow. The could get it down to 2.5-4 years total.
How many will leave the AAG regional for the LCC then if flow to AA is a sure thing in one more year? You'll still have the FO's going to DL-UA-FX-UPS though.

After that, they'll be after the APA for a new B-scale to bring the E175-CRJ700/900 onto the mainline certificate. They'll work a deal that allows Military, 121 pilots with over 5 years experience (or 7,000TT) to direct entry on the larger jets. New civilian pilots or college programs go to the small jets then bid up when their seniority can hold it. A fence to prevent super senior from either side from displacing somebody junior on the other side. Pilots hired after date of merge have no displacement protection (except for large plane not being displaced by small plane, this keeps the direct entry military guys in seat), and eventually when all the old guys retire you have a single list.
tons of little details to address, but the big ideas will probably look something like that.

We had something similar penned out in 2012-2013 between Eagle ALPA and the APA at the time, but the SLI and the addition of two new regionals that didn't play well with others at the time ended it from moving forward. The brass (in Tempe at the time) were okay with it, IF the Maintenance and FA's could reach a similar agreement.

The take away is they will do exactly that once it makes more financial sense.... and that time is rapidly approaching.

 

As much as you and I disagree at times, I think you're pretty close on the above, although you should be smart enough to know that who you're describing isn't a B-scale to anyone who isn't a keyboard warrior that doesn't know any better.

That said, you're still way too optimistic on how much they can crank up flow and still having functioning FFD carriers. Not every regional is stacked with lifers who think their God's gift to aviation.

 

Interesting that they would be bringing the regional jets onto the mainline certificate. To do this, it might be beneficial to send some pilots from mainline back to the regionals and put them into key roles in training and management to start working towards this. It would require a few months of certifications and taking all of the required training and operating manuals and customizing them for AA. Hmmm.....

 

They already have been populating the WOs with ex mainline people and trying to get their manuals to be like AA.

 

True, my use of the "b-scale" word was for effect. In reality it would be a pay and work rules increase for the regional guys..... and worse work rules and pay than current APA book. Not exactly a B-scale... but pretty close. just bump all the categories up one level creating a new Class 1 aircraft group which would be the RJ's. You'd still need a carve out for work rules on the RJ's, but not as large as some would think. Heck, with all the triple time pay going out the door now, they'd actually save money just merging and getting rid of the triple pay.