TransWorld

…and the Monday morning quarterback always completes the pass.

Seriously, first of 2021 I was saying loads this summer would be 70% to 80% of 2019. That is what the industry turned out to have. I was ridiculed and told I was making foolishly high predictions, by almost all the pilots here. The majority of the pilots were predicting, on here, AA was going to declare bankruptcy.

In that environment it is easy to see AA management was trying to conserve cash, was overly conservative, and was overly slow to respond. They were making the same call the pilots on here were.

dera

Loads are really a useless metric though. They might have had 70 to 80% loads, but yields were what, 40%? of 2019.

TransWorld

Initially, in the spring, the ticket prices were artificially low. As we got into summer, I heard friends complain, “what happened to all those cheap seats they were talking about?” They seem to be gone. Seems like yields are back closer to that of 2019.

dera

I prefer data and metrics over anecdotal experience to look at this.

In Q2 2019, AAG flew 62.658 million revenue pax miles with a yield of 17.57 cents. Their passenger revenue per ASM was 15.22.
In Q2 2021, AAG flew 42.022 million revenue pax miles with a yield of 15.57 cents. Their passenger revenue per ASM was 12.00.

International, in Q2 2019 AAG had 21.181 million revenue passenger miles, in Q2 2021, it was 7.151. The international flying is still totally flatlined at 30% from pre-COVID numbers.

That is a massive drop. This is why without PSP AAG would have lost 1.1 billion in Q2 2021. And Q3 is looking a lot worse with further shutdowns from lunatic governments.

Covid is a gift that keeps on giving, and it's far from over.

Al Czervik

everyone who has been a naysayer has been wrong. Wrong about the economy, the airlines and about the virus.

TransWorld

Thanks for the data.

Assume this data is for domestic.

Do you have data on ASM for 2Q20?

Do you predict AA or other majors filing for bankupcy?

dera

Those were systemwide numbers.

Predictions are pointless because the system is being manipulated by irrational reactions and responses, and by definition those are impossible to predict.
AA has enough cash to survive a few years of this without the big B. I doubt it's something they seriously consider.

Dobbs18

If we are talking about AA hiring and pilot staffing, which this thread is about, yields are a useless metric as well. IMHO....AA's game plan from the start of this pandemic has been to try an capture as many paxs as they can at whatever price, "yield", that maybe...they may have done a **** poor job of executing that plan but that's what they set out to do...its why we have been flying a much more robust schedule then our brethren over at DL and UAL...I'd say the results have been mixed at best, but the amount of segments we are flying is way more an indicator of future staffing/hiring needs than the loads or yields AA is generating...as you said it's very hard to predict and just bc the yields are low for certain markets at this time I doubt you see a course correction from AA anytime soon...but I am probably wrong, I just know that we are set to hire 1,350 pilots or so from now through 2022 and I believe that number is more than just attrition.

biigD

I'm a lot more bullish about our future than I was at this time last year, that's for sure! That said this Delta variant has me worried that the international stuff especially isn't going to have the kind of robust recovery that AA was hoping it'd have. Just hope we see the end to this stupid 'spike' soon so we don't backtrack on any of the planned hiring.

El Peso

Just using Israel as a sample group, they have 78% of the population vaccinated. Yet their COVID cases have jumped from 8 per day in June to 9000 per day with this Delta variant. In short, COVID is here to stay. If international boarders are going to close every time there’s a spike, then the international community, and particularity the international business community needs to realize that doing business is going to become a lot more localized.

If the majority of our long haul flying doesn’t return and we do start seeing the older 777s head for the desert, well then we won’t see much career advancement for the time being. Luckily we have massive retirements so no one should be getting furloughed in this new environment. Just a very real possibility that many will have to forget about wide body long-haul flying. All the more reason to shoot for the stars on the next contract as that 737 might be your last stop.