American interviews and class dates
06-15-2017 | 07:12 PM
#5482
On Reserve
Joined: Mar 2016
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The biggest thing that caught my attention was that out of a 14K+ pilot group they will be retiring 10K pilots over the next 10 years.
06-15-2017 | 07:20 PM
#5483
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Joined: Jul 2016
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That means if attrition >= hiring, even then a guy hired today would be at 29% seniority in 10 years. That's pretty solid!? Pretty sure that's group 3 CA in some bases? May be mistaken
06-15-2017 | 07:43 PM
#5484
Gets Everyday Off
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 6,995
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From: Fully Retired
Yes, Delta and United have major retirements as well, but the percentage at American is higher.
For those who lived through 9/11, furloughs, bankruptcies, and everything else, as well as those who have been sitting at the regionals for 25 years, it simply takes their breath away.
I am not being a rah rah. The demographics are something one cannot deny. Even if bad stuff happens, the demographics are going to be like a steamroller.
06-16-2017 | 07:16 AM
#5486
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 6,441
Likes: 128
From: Window seat
Public math warning -
10 years from midway through 2017 to midway through 2027 is 8063 published retirements. Actual retirements probably run 15% higher (that's 2017's approximate bump).
Tallflyer's 2012(?) data on apc shows AA having the most retirements until 2027.
Typical 2014/2015 flow through retires in 2030/2031 so AA's new hire data has a secondary bump not shown in Tallflyer's posts.
10 years from midway through 2017 to midway through 2027 is 8063 published retirements. Actual retirements probably run 15% higher (that's 2017's approximate bump).
Tallflyer's 2012(?) data on apc shows AA having the most retirements until 2027.
Typical 2014/2015 flow through retires in 2030/2031 so AA's new hire data has a secondary bump not shown in Tallflyer's posts.
06-16-2017 | 07:25 AM
#5487
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 6,441
Likes: 128
From: Window seat
Without number crunching the drawdown of G3 fleet makes 36%, IMO, doubtful as a G3 CA. Number crunched - Bottom (none MIA- TWA exception) is approx 5400 today.
It does put you at 43% of n/b CA's system wide.
06-16-2017 | 07:16 PM
#5489
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 6,441
Likes: 128
From: Window seat
IMO that's almost impossible to predict. Currently the 757/767 fleet is 56(?). Supposed to be approx. 32 in 2024? Based on where the 32nd a/c is currently manned (estimate) that number will be reached by a guy hired today in approx. 2030-2032. And right now the only word we have is a vague 'the 767 fleet will be here until at least 2028'. The last airplane? Twenty airplanes?
But as the G4 fleet increases you'd expect the G3 CA seat to go more junior. Using the data above, absent changes in bidding patterns which will occur, guys could be a G4 CA before they could be a G3 CA even if the G3 airplane still exists on the property.
That's why I think it's very hard to estimate.
But as the G4 fleet increases you'd expect the G3 CA seat to go more junior. Using the data above, absent changes in bidding patterns which will occur, guys could be a G4 CA before they could be a G3 CA even if the G3 airplane still exists on the property.
That's why I think it's very hard to estimate.
06-16-2017 | 07:20 PM
#5490
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2008
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From: A-320
There are always some senior people that will fly it to the boneyard. Look at the -80 seniority list. A guy hired now might not ever be able to hold 757/767 CA. Guys will get displaced off with reinstatement rights.
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