Slice - I agree hard to estimate. But G3/G4 CA at even 15 years from now is an incredible ride.

If in a few years a pilot flows at age 30-35, that means they may be a wide body captain at age 45-50. Amazing.

 

What's the current timeline for applicants looking like? I supposedly passed the video interview by receiving the additional info email. I added the info about 10 days ago and haven't heard anything since. Is that normal?

Here are my dates thus far:

6/1: video interview invite
6/4: completed the video interview
6/6: request for additional info

 

Yes, normal.

Lately, I think it's been taking 2 to 4 weeks to hear back. In the past it's taken as long as a year to hear back. It also looks like they've cut the class sizes this summer, so that's probably slowed the response even more.

 

I just checked the seniority projection of the junior guy on the list.

Based on today's fleet he'll be a 767 CA in 12 years and a G4 CA in 17 yrs. He's currently 31 so that projects to 43 and 48 yrs old.

The reality is the G3 fleet is supposed to be perhaps gone by then or shortly afterwards. The good news is the G4 fleet will be larger. Hopefully the A350's are delivered, OR 330NEO or additional 787's, to replace retiring G3 a/c with G4 a/c. Overall the replacement of G3 a/c with G4 a/c will make w/b CA go more senior because G2 to G3 pay is only $13/hr more but G2 to G4 is $50/hr. For $13/hr senior guys might stay on a G2 a/c. For $50/hr at some point the money talks.

Even a pilot corps growth of 1% a year becomes significant over 10, 20, or 30 years. Hopefully the legacy carriers can regain, and maintain, GDP linked growth. With up-gauging of fleet sizes the pilot corps increase would lag the ASM growth.

 

Interesting looking at the junior guy's projections. His seniority number is projected to be the same as the junior CA (11,000 - 8/31/17) in September 2022. Five year 3.5 month to upgrade.

 

Slice,
While I think it is awesome to dream big and ask how long it would take to hold CA on big metal, I wonder if you answer something a little more practical and closer to the canoe?

How many reserve lines are there on junior base/equipment pairs? Specifically those that one are likely to draw as a new hire, either in percentages or raw numbers:
MIA737
MIA320
LGA737
LGA320
DCA737
UDC320
PHL190

I'm thinking this would be more useful earlier on, when trying to determine commutes and crash pads, rather than time to hold CA.

Thanks in advance!
RBA

 

Rhino - I kept the MIA 737/320 and LGA 737 bid statuses combined. In reality they're split between DOM and INT divisions.

I assumed all bid statuses have approx. 25% reserve. PHL E190 is about 50% rsv. Probably due to the amount of guys bidding out every month (churn/turn over). Rounded to the nearest 5 -

MIA 320 - 55 rsv
737 - 115

LGA 320 - 45
737 - 55

DCA 737 - 30

UDC 320 - 40

PHL 190 - 40


I had a previous post about how long it takes to get to a base or how long it takes to become a line holder, or to be able to hold long call rsv (12 hr callout, subject to being assigned SC a couple times a month). Those are the issues new hires are interested in. I'll see if I can repost it.

In general new hires have had the option of LGA and PHL 190. Most, or a lot, of new hire classes also have MIA as an option.

Considerations for choosing a base - how many bases do I cover? How frequently does my a/c fly out of the other airports at the base? What city pair am I going to commute to? How many on line flights are there between those city pairs? How many jump seats are available in those city pairs? Is there already a significant number of commuters (CLT-MIA, DCA-MIA, DCA-LGA, DFW-MIA, MCO-MIA, SAT-DFW, etc). There are city pairs that have fewer flights but more jump seats (737=1, 320=2). Or those city pairs don't have as many commuters listed on the jump seat.

 

Rhino - base availability thread for junior guys -

Base availability/line holder status - 1yr/2y

 

Class drop for 25 July.

22 LAX/FO/320/I
14 LGA/FO/737/D
6 PHL/FO/190/I

 

Just curious if anyone recently hired in the last few months can post the time they waited from getting the "additional info request" email to getting an interview date? My friend has been waiting 10 days since submitting the additional info for background check. When I did it a couple years ago it was only 2-4 days.
Thanks.