I think the point is they need to hire 2 in order to net 1. So in order to staff 19 more 767's for Amazon they would need to net around 450 additional pilots from now until the end of 2018. With current attrition rates that means they need to hire between 8-900 in the next 21 months which is a tall order but not impossible. Clear as mud?

 

My apologies....I did in fact mis-read the dates...I thought Dave was saying net loss between Dec'15-Feb'17. Dave is absolutely correct on the net loss.

Mute, yes, I get all that...mis-read Dave's dates. Probably why I'm still stuck at Atlas. I can't even read a post properly. 😳

 

Anybody else notice how much they've front loaded the 767 operation? I know Captains who have been sitting hard reserve and barely flying for months. People are having a hard time getting their consolidation hours (100 hours in 120 or 150 days). I think they might be saying they need X number of pilots for Amazon but Id be willing to bet they've already hired many of those, we just can't tell. They've front loaded it or they can shift labor away from less lucrative contracts to staff Amazon. If they want the Amazon flying to be staffed, it'll be staffed regardless. These guys are WAY ahead of us.

I believe hanging our hat on the attrition argument can come back to bite us. Prior to this lawsuit (and maybe now, still), pilots were applying, interviewing, and getting through training. Yes, pilots were and are leaving at decent rates. I hope encouraging people to leave and promoting large attrition numbers isn't our "strategy", because its got flaws and doesn't seem to be working. The jets are still moving, and there are a ton of reserves sitting around waiting to legally move the jets! Oh, and they beat 4th quarter earnings with ease...carry on!

 

My thoughts exactly. I hope we have smart people in the right places to get what we need.

 

If you look closer at the SEC filings....beating earnings is questionable at best. Why....?

EPS was suspiciously only one penny over estimates with several curious other numbers. Apart from the fact that last year Southern Air was not accretive on the balance sheet, which alone makes year over year comparison a little more complicated......how is it that we have more aircraft than last year, yet MX costs are down almost $20 million.

The company goes as far to mention that mx will be higher in Q1 2017. Delayed action????

Revenue per block hour is lower and cash is down ~$300 million. Yet we manage to post said EPS.

....not saying it's illegal. All legal. Just fancy accounting for the headlines.

Not so sure about them staffing 767s early. We've had an extra amazon 767 sitting idle for some time as a spare for the one operating, and the third has no task in sight. In addition, according the companies public numbers the 2017 and 2018 estimates have been corrected lower twice now by my count.

Looks like all the pressure on management is building. IMHO.

 

There is certainly enough leeway in the law for them to massage the numbers in a way that benefits them, and they are hardly the only execs who do this. Either way, my point is that they always win. Even if they miss earnings, they probably have a reason or a strategy in place allowing them to take advantage of it. None of us knows whats going to happen (I hope, maybe The Teamsters has a good crystal ball?!). If the attrition stays equal and the incoming stream fully dries up, then we have something... Which goes back to my question to the perspective new hires I asked a couple of pages prior. How does Atlas suing its pilot group change your employment decision with Atlas, if at all?

 

Very late reply but thanks to everyone for the good info. I am very much an optimist but I try to do as much research as I can before making any moves. I am around 6 months out from being competitive outside of the regional market so I am trying to get ahead of the curve and plan my next move. Hopefully it's to somewhere permanent. Thanks again.

 

It's about 20 per airplane. If the last one gets here by the end of 2018 then they need 380 more pilots by September of 2018. 260 of those must come this year because a pilot takes 4 months (at least) to train. So every month they shrink turns into a pretty big problem... My guess is that IF we keep shrinking that we'll have to decide in the 4th quarter which contracts get served and which don't.

If they are only going to retain 1 for ever two they hire then they need 520 this year.... But now it's the end of February so they only have 10 months to do that.

 

Maybe- maybe not.

Lot of 76 pilots sitting around doing NADA.

 

And it's sounding like Atlas just picked up about 18 Florida West crew members. So HR can now sit back, take a break and sip their Kool-Aid for another couple of months.

More interesting info...

AtlasFacts.org