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Old 11-15-2020, 02:55 PM   #21  
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Currently there are not many in that democratic anyway.
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Old 11-16-2020, 07:20 AM   #22  
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For starters, three regionals have disappeared altogether and if one or two more donít go before this gets done, Iíd be greatly surprised.

And fleet reductions at some of the legacies may well compel reductions at some of their affiliated regionals, just to meet scope agreements.

Then you are going to have some other career speed bumps. A lot of the senior people at regionals who werenít furloughed will have graduated to a situation where their going to the majors just doesnít make sense, theyíd have to start all over at the bottom of a seniority list while not making all that much more than what they have at the regional with far less seniority based scheduling clout. They basically have become immobile, sitting in those regional slots until retirement.

In the meantime, 1000 pilots a year who could have been getting out of the military but instead have been waiting for this COVID to be over will all be getting out, probably 2500 or so of them.

Some - those current - will go directly to the majors or nearly so. The others will be going to the regionals for probably a year of Ďtouch and goí to get current before they go to the majors, leaving their fellows at the regional behind. Except of course by that time another 1000 military aviators will have worked off their ADSCs too.

Basically there are just too many pilots too far more qualified than you for this to resolve quickly given reduced airline sizes.

Sorry, but if thatís not the reality it will be damn close to it,
I disagree with this. The regionals that have gone under have left their pilots with no option but to look for other work.

Those pilots will all find jobs during the next couple years (perhaps non-flying). Once the regionals start hiring again, theyíre going to offer around 40K starting, no bonus and no hint of upgrading anytime soon.

If the pilots found other, better jobs- I doubt theyíll come back.

Military aviators canít just extend their contract ďuntil COVID is over.Ē They have to commit for a specified time. The ones that were getting out were looking to do so because the civilian path looked better than the military path. Not the case anymore.

Civilian aviators need 1500 hours to get hired. Entry level work is going to be hard to find. Instead of 2 years of flight instructing it will likely take 5 years of grinding it out to get that time.

Once the regionals start hiring there will be applicants. Those applicants will run out pretty quickly in my opinion. I donít think the flood gates will open with qualified applicants until the situation gets bleak to offer hiring bonuses and a reasonable shot at upgrading quickly.

Maybe Iím naive, but itís just hard to imagine a large number of qualified people jumping at the chance to decrease their overall quality of life for the foreseeable future. Thatís why the regionals were so desperate to get people right before the crash. If it were me Iíd stick to the military, fire fighting, cargo/corporate or whatever else Iíve been doing
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Old 11-16-2020, 07:58 AM   #23  
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I disagree with this. The regionals that have gone under have left their pilots with no option but to look for other work.

Those pilots will all find jobs during the next couple years (perhaps non-flying). Once the regionals start hiring again, theyíre going to offer around 40K starting, no bonus and no hint of upgrading anytime soon.

If the pilots found other, better jobs- I doubt theyíll come back.

Military aviators canít just extend their contract ďuntil COVID is over.Ē They have to commit for a specified time. The ones that were getting out were looking to do so because the civilian path looked better than the military path. Not the case anymore.

Civilian aviators need 1500 hours to get hired. Entry level work is going to be hard to find. Instead of 2 years of flight instructing it will likely take 5 years of grinding it out to get that time.

Once the regionals start hiring there will be applicants. Those applicants will run out pretty quickly in my opinion. I donít think the flood gates will open with qualified applicants until the situation gets bleak to offer hiring bonuses and a reasonable shot at upgrading quickly.

Maybe Iím naive, but itís just hard to imagine a large number of qualified people jumping at the chance to decrease their overall quality of life for the foreseeable future. Thatís why the regionals were so desperate to get people right before the crash. If it were me Iíd stick to the military, fire fighting, cargo/corporate or whatever else Iíve been doing
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And, I think you are pretty much wrong about everything else too, but you are certainly entitled to your opinion. Itís not like the airlines have a long track record of dealing with COVID.
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Old 11-16-2020, 09:45 AM   #24  
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I'm with excargodog's aggregate outlook of the next 5-7 years on this one.

If I was in the OPs shoes I'd keep plugging away at the LE job and building up that pension if able. Sometimes we're simply priced out of jobs, housing markets et al, by timing, personal, medical or family demographics, good bad or indifferent. It is what it is.

Private small airplane ownership has treated me very well; it can be done on a non-upper middle class income if you align your ducks at home right, especially experimental. Of course, that outlet being sufficient to appease the individual is my biased position due to having high overhead costs at this juncture in my life now as a head of household, and never been drawn to piloting transport-category flying. The bit of it I did in the military frankly almost cured me from wanting to continue flying professionally. So I'll defer to those who legitimately enjoy that kind of flying to more positively answer whether the alternative I propose is sufficient for ya. Good luck OP.
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Old 11-17-2020, 05:27 AM   #25  
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And, I think you are pretty much wrong about everything else too, but you are certainly entitled to your opinion. Itís not like the airlines have a long track record of dealing with COVID.

Iím wrong that unemployed pilots have to look for other work? And that if they find the right job they may stay there?

Iím wrong that people with wet commercial certificates are going to have a hell of a time reaching ATP minimums?

Iím wrong to assume that people in this thread (with firefighter or law enforcement backgrounds) are still going to be eager to jump ship and retire early?

With low entry pay and slow upgrades, a big city fireman would be leaving hundreds of thousands of dollars of career earnings on the table (as well as job security) in order to fly for a regional.

As stated before, my main point was that as soon as regionals start hiring they are going to get flooded with applicants who only have flying backgrounds and never found other jobs. A lot of 2,500 hour CFIís will be applying. I donít think too many other people will be eager to give up stability and good pay to fly for a regional (including military aviators- regardless of if they have served their 8 years or not).

I could be wrong. As you mentioned, weíre all entitled to our opinions. Time will tell.
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Old 11-17-2020, 05:57 AM   #26  
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My take...

Turbine 135 is going to be the next step in the career progression ladder. That might actually get you on with a regional sooner than you might think... sometimes regionals prefer lower-time pilots to more experienced people who came from a defunct regional (they are concerned about those folks having bad attitudes, especially if they were senior).

As for career change at this point, hard to call. Obvious risk and uncertainty, although we should know more as vaccines deploy early next year and we see how big of an impact that will have.

Fortune favors the bold in this industry, when the cyclical stop-n-go traffic does start moving, it usually pays off to have advanced yourself as far as possible during the slow times to be ready for the next step.

But you have to manage your finances too.. I slow-rolled my aviation career while I did other things on the side. I was actually regretting that just a little during the recent airline boom, but covid reminded me why I stayed conservative. But some of my buds from back in the day are major CA's now, they chased the opportunities more aggressively.
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Old 11-17-2020, 06:56 AM   #27  
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The only requirement I see changing is needing an unrestricted ATP. Can't see any airline paying for an ATP until they need to.

Prior part 121, 135 or fixed wing mil time will be preferred. You'll need to consult your crystal ball to see how long before the fully qualified pool of talent will be exhausted.
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Old 11-18-2020, 03:21 PM   #28  
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Turbine 135 is going to be the next step in the career progression ladder. That might actually get you on with a regional sooner than you might think... sometimes regionals prefer lower-time pilots to more experienced people who came from a defunct regional (they are concerned about those folks having bad attitudes, especially if they were senior).
This is interesting info and kind of the next logical step from what I asked about hiring furloughed regional pilots. Again I don't know this industry intimately, but I have spent a fair bit of time on the other side of the interview desk. I know that it is not always (not even usually) about hiring the most qualified person, or the thickest resume, but about hiring the right person. Right could be attitude, perceived fit within a corporate culture, trainability, all kinds of things.

The movie "Miracle" about the 1980 US Hockey team is a staple of leadership training, and includes a great scene where coach Herb Brooks is culling down the final roster for the team. His assistant coach challenges him on some of the choices, and Herb's response is basically, "I'm not looking for the best players, I'm looking for the right players." That line has always stuck with me when it comes to hiring decisions.
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Old 11-19-2020, 06:55 AM   #29  
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The only requirement I see changing is needing an unrestricted ATP. Can't see any airline paying for an ATP until they need to.

Prior part 121, 135 or fixed wing mil time will be preferred. You'll need to consult your crystal ball to see how long before the fully qualified pool of talent will be exhausted.
I started this career change with a cost benefit analysis using the R-ATP. That means I only needed 25 hours of multi (another 25 come from the sim in training).

So for a ATP I would need a full 50 hours of multi. About 4 to 5k for the CTP class. Another 1-2k for a checkride and rental costs for thr checkride. Also an additional 500 hours of TT.

All for a regional FO spot with no signing bonus, little seniority movement to get a good schedule and good base, along with no upgrade timeline that can be planned for.

I think I am going to be driving a fire engine for quite a few more years.

This situation puts me at a crossroads- do I get pay to get my MEI and hope to get enough students to get me to 50 hours of multi? (Not likely witnh current training demand from MEIs I know) Or find a piston twin job (not likely) or 135 job with horrible QOL while I have young kids? Maybe buy my own twin and teach in it.....lots of ways to go about it....and none of them really entice me right now.

I think the better option is to stay in the current career and hope hiring returns to 2019 levels where CFIs are getting scooped up before they even hit minimums sooner rather than later. I might not be on the front end of the wave, but I guess it comes down to how (more) much I want to invest.
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Old 11-19-2020, 08:57 AM   #30  
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I started this career change with a cost benefit analysis using the R-ATP. That means I only needed 25 hours of multi (another 25 come from the sim in training).


So for a ATP I would need a full 50 hours of multi. About 4 to 5k for the CTP class. Another 1-2k for a checkride and rental costs for thr checkride. Also an additional 500 hours of TT.


All for a regional FO spot with no signing bonus, little seniority movement to get a good schedule and good base, along with no upgrade timeline that can be planned for.


I think I am going to be driving a fire engine for quite a few more years.


This situation puts me at a crossroads- do I get pay to get my MEI and hope to get enough students to get me to 50 hours of multi? (Not likely witnh current training demand from MEIs I know) Or find a piston twin job (not likely) or 135 job with horrible QOL while I have young kids? Maybe buy my own twin and teach in it.....lots of ways to go about it....and none of them really entice me right now.


I think the better option is to stay in the current career and hope hiring returns to 2019 levels where CFIs are getting scooped up before they even hit minimums sooner rather than later. I might not be on the front end of the wave, but I guess it comes down to how (more) much I want to invest.

I feel your pain, as I'm sure thousands of others do as well. I did the career change after I got my CFI in fall 2019. My wife and I sacrificed a lot for me to quit my job and go be a full time flight instructor. Moved away to instruct at an academy leaving my wife and kids at home, all to build time on a more consistent basis than I could if I stayed home. Things were going great and as I hit 1100 hours, COVID hit. School let go of a truckload of instructors, me included. So now what? I keep reading to get my MEI. I have 55 hrs of ME, but there is not an airport within a 50 mile radius of me that has a twin so I can't see the ROI paying for my MEI. Is it worth it to pay for my ATP (at least the written)? I've tried to get personal with a couple 135 ops flying caravans, but was told I'm not competitive enough. Unfortunately, we're not getting any younger so the hope is things somewhat recover sooner than later.


There is no crystal ball and all of us have hard decisions to make without much data to go on. Some are calling 2-5 years before hiring resumes (competitively), others predict sooner with a vaccine being introduced. However, every prediction about the virus up to this point has not been on the same planet so we don't know whos information to rely on.
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