On the contrary, I think time is on our side....the longer this takes the less chance of furlough. Time to furlough was last year. Every day that goes by is one day closer to getting out of the 'overmanning' situation.

 

You know what is funny, I'll bet when your block 8 rep was elected it was with more block 1 votes than block 8 votes.

 

You hit the nail on the head LAG,...junior members need to vote, if they/we aren't then we get what we get. No shot intended against block 8 rep by the way.

 

The last time the Wilson Center called I spent ten minutes blasting away at the "confidentiality agreements" that our union enters into with the company. I have a hunch some "confidential" information was passed while negotiating the the HKG transportation solution.

 

There will always be info passed at that level that will never make it down to the average member. Just how it is.

We need the most honorable people serving to protect us....Sometimes from ourselves.

 

You're right, but it doesn't mean I have to like it. We need communication with enough substance to quell the important questions. Right now, the bottom 300 are not getting any answers. During the silence, they can only hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

 

I think the bottom 300 have the info. You just have to know how to read it.

Furloughs are never broadcast 6 or even 3 months out. Often you get minimum warning. Why? Because no one wants to alarm those affected until the last minute to avoid trouble. It is also dependent on the economy. Right now, for arguments sake, they might be planning on 200 then decide to do more if volume forecasts get worse. Or none if it picks back up. I believe that is what we have been seeing the last 3 months, changes due to declining volume.

The warnings from the union and management are all there, IMHO. More than is usual in this industry. Prepare as best you can.

 

I wonder how many time the company says, "We think we have them now."

Now JG is working on a "global compromise" with the hope that a few of the outstanding issues might get resolved. I liked JG a lot better when he was putting on his knuckle wraps.

My opinion is that there is no furlough. Sure these excess bids are giving us all a moment to pause and reflect. But I still think it can't happen. If we were overmanned by a significant number, 1000 or more, I might have some doubt. But with the great unknown of the 250 flying over 60 guys (who could retire any minute), peak just around the corner, in house economic theories that the recovery could come this fall, the cost of unnecessary training cycles, cost of move packages, perceptions on Wall Street (if there are any) and goodwill in the AOC (if there is any left) just indicate to me that there are not enough of us that are "extra" that they can furlough and come out a nickel richer on the other side.

So now they've got us. We chomped at the bait and are considering a global concessionary LOA, if there are guarantees that there won't be a furlough. I know these are tense and painful times for all of us. But without implying any disregard to the junior guys, and with tongue in cheek, I'd like to tell the company to go ahead and furlough. Then see what they do.

It seems like de ja vu all over again. We oil our weapons, load our magazines and get all camo-ed up, only for some last minute stay of execution, where we all get a small COLA and colorful snacks to munch on as the sun comes up. Then we get to read for years in this forum how we screwed it all up.

 

Popeye,

This whole global LOA idea seems far more aimed at mitigating the effect of reduced BLG's and seat movement than it does furloughs. The potential furloughee part of it really seems to be about: a) trying not to leave anyone behind and b)part of how to produce a definitive exit process for 4.a.2.b so we don't go through this process multiple times in our careers. We'll see though.

 

As a guy who is furlough fodder, I'd certainly not want to see the pilot group give away anything long term that would negatively affect our group going forward. I'd prefer to be furloughed with a better job to come back to than have a job that is decimated in the future.