ATSG market cap is around $271M. Atlas has around $500M but has announced a share buyback, so don't know how much cash they have to play with.

 

I would not be surprised if the following happens:

1) ABX-ATI merger
- OC: IXXA544T
- ABX Air

2) DHL and ATLAS enter a joint venture and purchase the "new" ABX

3) DHL attempts to bring all of the DHL airlines under one roof
- Polar/Atlas and ABX/ATI all become one large airline

4) Then they set their sights on Southern Air
- They just moved their headquarters to CVG

This will allow DHL to try what they wanted back in the early 2000s (e.g. on large airline flying under the DHL name like what was tried with Astar but with ABX playing ball this time).

Interesting rumor..... it will change tomorrow though, just like everything else at ATSG

 

Atlas has made offers to buy ABX 2 times without any luck....I do not see them interested in ATSG as a whole....but who knows...the Atlas crews have told us they are interested in ABX....time will tell...they are after the DHL flying and ABX has most of it.

 

Is there anything in the ABX scope clause to prevent the following:

AAWW (Atlas Air World Wide) buys ABX and runs it as a separate company but over time, transfers planes to the Polar and/or Atlas cert. without the crews.

Two things accomplished, giving DHL more control, if the planes were transfered to Polar (49% owned by DHL). I don't think this would happen, most likely be transfered to Atlas cert. since they have the 767 on it, still giving DHL more control.

They would get rid of the ABX contract.

To be clear, I have heard nothing about this, just a question?

 

Well played sir. Well played!

 

An ABX-ATI merger is highly unlikely. When there is a merger, one certificate has to be turned in to the feds. That's whats happening with Crappy. ABX has the Inter-Asia authority and ATI has worldwide OPS SpECS with passenger ops. 2 very hard authorizations to get. You just can get pax on ABX cert very easy and ATI would have to jump through hoops to get the Inter Asia certs. But the hoops for Inter Asia are easier then pax/combi authority. Come March ATI will also have 300 RVR, something that was needed in Europe.

The possibility of Atlas getting ABX is more likely. In the next year when DHL contract comes back for bid, if Atlas was to get most of the flying, they would need airframes that are not currently available. A purchase of ABX would give them the airframes. ATSG gets rid of ABX and their scope and concentrates of the Combi cash cow and ATI. The recent long term lease of the new hangar being built in ILN under ATI is probably a sign that ATSG plans to keep ATI.
But who knows! It's all speculation!

 

A lot of interesting ideas being offered here. But here's another: Whether or not anyone believes that Jakarta is real, let's assume that it is. I believe that would constitute intra-Asia. Maybe that's part of what's holding things up (again, I am only operating under the ass-u-me...ption that it will happen, not prognosticating that it might actually happen). Once that happens, ABX got nuttin on ATI to have a certificate worthy of continuation over ours.

Also, am I correct in the thought that CAM owns all of the airplanes in question here - ABX, ATI, soon to be ex-Cappy? If so, then does that take a little wind out of the sails behind the thought that DHL would want airlines with no assets? Huge element of control lost there. Cheaper in the short term, but (control your guffaws here...), I would hope that DHL still remembers how completely they got "served" a few years back in the US market.

As for Southern, not sure why AAWW doesn't go for them now. Seems they should be ripe for the picking. Besides, a good chunk of Atlas consists of ex-SAT refugees after the original shut down in 1998. I was one of them, but went to ATI.

I still think everything that is happening to us here under ATSG is in preparation for next year's re-up with DHL. We think it's ugly now? Just wait...

 

Glad to see you still with us, hvy! And that my sarcastic comment didn't go non-sequitur...

 

Short answer...yes...Section F. Merger Protections....crews go with aircraft and seniority list merged....not sure "getting rid" of ABX contract would do much for Atlas...with duty rigs I think Atlas pilots are more expensive...(I know they spend more on catering! ) and if ABX has a better contract wouldn't Atlas crews want an improvement?

 

Trust me, Atlas has been thru this before. It would be five or six years down the road for the merged contract to come to fruition.

I had heard that there were still many ABX captains doing $300k, where at Atlas that is rare. Average 744 captain gets just above $200k.

BTW, I'm looking at it from a management point of view. Atlas management is pretty happy with the current Atlas contract. It has very few rules and no protections.

I guess none of us has protection from a rape and pillage mentality.