I'm saying these numbers were and are bogus. Started at 2.2 mill, down, and down. Last I heard the Great Fauci revised his to 60 to 80K. Everything is trending down and moving towards the fact that we need to get back to life and work. If you break your arm, you don't put your whole body in a cast.

 

I think what you're missing here is that the 2.2million projection *assumed no mitigation or social distancing efforts*. The team who came up with that number was very, very clear about that.

 

And remember, the estimated death toll is thru August 4th or thereabouts. Many places haven't even reached their peak yet. Here in CLT we won't peak until late June. The 2M+ was with no preventative measures. I believe we'll see at least 200K by August, maybe a lot more depending on how the lifting of restrictions plays out.

 

Yeah, but then it doesn't fit his narrative

 

Probably because the 50+K dead already isn't accurate and vastly inflated. Just follow the money in this whole thing. How much money does Medicaid/Medicare pay per hospital bed people? $13K. How much if that person just happens to have Covid? $39K. The experts freely admit that if someone has severe comorbidities but has Covid, they died of Covid even though they smoked for 25 years and were 100 lb overweight. If you look at the actual numbers the CDC has put out we are at less than 1% mortality. Out of 100 Covid patients 96 will recover. Of the 4 that die 90% of those had severe health problems to begin with. "We need 30K ventilators". they used 5K in NY. What a joke. We made GM make ventilators!!! This is such a self inflicted event folks. Absolutely crazy. Sweden must be laughing their butts off.

The Governors who are still beating the lockdown drum are waiting for the bailout money from Uncle sugar. This whole thing was an exercise on how much control our leaders can exercise in emergency situations. It has worked really well for them. Wake up now folks!

 

That begs the questions

How much distancing has *actually* occurred?
How effective has said social distancing been vs other drivers?

I guarantee people will find data vehemently supporting both sides.....or at least a woke article from vox.

 

I think what you are missing here is that the 2.2 million projection had an iFR of 0.9, the actual fatality rate is about half that or less. I think what you are missing here is that Neil Ferguson and Imperial College have made some dreadfully inaccurate forecasts in the pasts about previous pandemics, none of which have panned out.

Here are some reasonable questions asked about the authors of the study and the results of previous predictions:

In 2005, Ferguson said that up to 200 million people could be killed from bird flu. He told the Guardian that ‘around 40 million people died in 1918 Spanish flu outbreak… There are six times more people on the planet now so you could scale it up to around 200 million people probably.’ In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.

How did he get this forecast so wrong?

Q2.

In 2009, Ferguson and his Imperial team predicted that swine flu had a case fatality rate 0.3 per cent to 1.5 per cent. His most likely estimate was that the mortality rate was 0.4 per cent. A government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ was that the disease would lead to 65,000 UK deaths.

In the end swine flu killed 457 people in the UK and had a death rate of just 0.026 per cent in those infected.

Why did the Imperial team overestimate the fatality of the disease? Or to borrow Robinson's words to Hancock this morning: 'that prediction wasn't just nonsense was it? It was dangerous nonsense.'

Q3.

In 2001 the Imperial team produced modelling on foot and mouth disease that suggested that animals in neighbouring farms should be culled, even if there was no evidence of infection. This influenced government policy and led to the total culling of more than six million cattle, sheep and pigs – with a cost to the UK economy estimated at £10 billion.

It has been claimed by experts such as Michael Thrusfield, professor of veterinary epidemiology at Edinburgh University, that Ferguson’s modelling on foot and mouth was ‘severely flawed’ and made a ‘serious error’ by ‘ignoring the species composition of farms,’ and the fact that the disease spread faster between different species.

Does Ferguson acknowledge that his modelling in 2001 was flawed and if so, has he taken steps to avoid future mistakes?

Q4.


In 2002, Ferguson predicted that between 50 and 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. He also predicted that number could rise to 150,000 if there was a sheep epidemic as well. In the UK, there have only been 177 deaths from BSE.

Does Ferguson believe that his ‘worst-case scenario’ in this case was too high? If so, what lessons has he learnt when it comes to his modelling since?

Q5.


Ferguson’s disease modelling for Covid-19 has been criticised by experts such as John Ioannidis, professor in disease prevention at Stanford University, who has said that: ‘The Imperial College study has been done by a highly competent team of modellers. However, some of the major assumptions and estimates that are built in the calculations seem to be substantially inflated.’

Has the Imperial team’s Covid-19 model been subject to outside scrutiny from other experts, and are the team questioning their own assumptions used? What safeguards are in place?

Q6.

On 22 March, Ferguson said that Imperial College London’s model of the Covid-19 disease is based on undocumented, 13-year-old computer code, that was intended to be used for a feared influenza pandemic, rather than a coronavirus.

How many assumptions in the Imperial model are still based on influenza and is there any risk that the modelling is flawed because of these assumptions?

 

I propose a one-month closing of all gas stations in the US, starting now. No stay at home order, just no gas.

Typically people who own electric cars are responsible/intelligent enough to follow government guidelines, or at least use discretion when venturing out in public.

CV mitigated by June 1st.

 

And the Great Fauci failed to ever mention ingesting Clorox was a cure. Whats with that??

POTUS HAS THE ANSWERS. just listen and learn, young Palawan

 

I like it! “The Great and Powerful Fauci!” Truly the man behind the curtain.

Also, I think it’s “Padawan.” Autocorrect errors immediately expose the poster as an idiot, so watch out for that.