I don’t recall saying “it [lockdown] is the most effective measure.” I just didn’t list other alternative measures.

That said, I think, among the measures we took it could have been the most effective at reducing R; followed by mask wearing. Calling the virus a “democratic hoax” or waiting till you’d sold all your stock and shorted travel companies, was not effective.

 

🥱




Two months ago you could only get a test if you were already dying. Now anyone who wants a test in Florida can get one. There are 3 drive through testing sites within 10 mins of me and 1 in the low income area of town with walk up services.

Florida has been in phase 1 for over a month and a half already. No spike in deaths. Phase 2 for almost 2 weeks already. No spike in hospitalizations.


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I suggest grabbing your popcorn. Florida's just getting started.

 

Oh ok. Good thing you fly planes for a living and not in charge of public health. You think the virus will be over Nov 3rd?

 

Ah yes the “just wait two weeks” refrain.

Florida has been open for a month and a half already!

Gyms and beauty salons for over a month.
Churches for weeks.
Bars going on two weeks.

If we were going to see a hospitalization spike we would have already seen it.





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So, a few questions. What % of the population in the US needs to be infected for seeking herd immunity to be an effective strategy. Don’t forget we have no vaccine and no consensus that SARS-CoV-2 doesn’t reinfect hosts.

If you contact trace effectively (that’s a big IF) and you isolate the the contagious, how long does that delay herd immunity? Don’t you need either a vaccine, exposure, or viral mutation to increase herd immunity?

It looks to me like:

In Jan/Feb
1. We didn’t have reliable nucleic acid tests.
2. We didn’t have reliable antibody tests.
3. We didn’t have enough contact tracers or people to train them.
4. We didn’t know the R0 until weeks after the fact but know it went to 3.9 (6.6 now discovered) at least.
5. We didn’t know if immunity or reinfection was possible.
6. We didn’t know how many asymptomatic transmitters there could be.
7. We didn’t know how many presymptomatic spreaders there could be or were.
8. We couldn’t derive an appropriate population exposure for herd immunity if it even works in this case (which it probably would in the long long run).

So with these uncertainties, you would have enacted your strategy of contact tracing, isolating the contagious, and left inter and intrastate travel open? Concerts ok? Restaurants ok? Parties ok? Packing into trains ok? Force at risk people to go to work or be fired?

Or would you have taken some other action? Why do you assume most of the world acted differently than you would have?

 

Nonsense. Death rates are still a small fraction of those of N.Y. and NJ. And overall deaths are still coming down.

 

I would have used the same tactics that have ALWAYS been used in previous epidemics. THIS case is the outlier. This has not been done before. And those issues were ALWAYS PRESENT with every previous epidemic. We listened to the Chicken Littles of the world and will pay a terrible price for the shutdown, and I don’t just mean in dollars.

in thevUS alone, three million people a year are diagnosed with a serious cancer. Ultimately we cure (or at least put in remission long enough the patient dies of something else) two-thirds of those people. But for three months nobody was doing Pap smears, mammograms, colonoscopies, and other tests to detect those cancers early, so they will be detected later, when the cancer is more advanced, the surgery/chemotherapy/radiation therapy will be more extreme, and the odds of cure less.

Same sort of thing applies across the board. Stop routine medical diagnosis and care, the cardiovascular disease gets worse, the renal disease gets worse, diabetes... etc. let alone increases in mental illness, child abuse, suicide, domestic violence, etc.

you can’t just count one side of 5he equation, you gotta count both sides.

 

Someone asked what happens Oct 1. Very simple. Most airlines furlough the numbers they have predicted. That is 20-30%. Going forward, as the virus refuses to leave and in fact gets worse, the airlines realize they need even less pilots. Country will be preoccupied with elections and so won’t be worried about Cares Act 2 etc. By January with a third wave in full swing and markets collapsing because of political wrangling, even less people with travel and airlines will continue to furlough. By March of next year I’d expect 50-60% numbers at best. 70% at worst. Only when a vaccine (late 2021) finally becomes available will people begin to travel. A robust recovery will happen beginning early 2022 and we should be back to pre COVID 19 levels by late 2024 once the country has settled down and the depression eased up.

 

And what happens if we NEVER develop an effective immunization against Coronavirus?

We’ve never developed one against:

• Chikungunya
• Dengue
• Cytomegalovirus
• HIV/AIDS
• Rhinovirus
• Respiratory Syncytial Virus
• Adenovirus
• Herpes virus (except Zoster)
• Powassan virus

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/03/healt...ntl/index.html