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Old 06-14-2020 | 10:13 PM
  #441  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
your ignorance just doesn’t quit, does it? I BELIEVE you have no idea what I’m talking about because you clearly don’t know even the basics of epidemiology.

Herd immunity is NOT an all or nothing response. Nor would ‘millions need to die.’ All that needs to happen is for enough people to become non susceptible for the Rt to become below 1.0. Sometimes that takes 96-97% of the population being immunized or recovered. Sometimes 10% will do. According to Gov. Cuomo, over 15% of New Yorkers tested positive for coronavirus antibodies.

But there are LOTS of ways to get down to Rt less than 1.0. Immunizations, for one thing. Or do like we have done - well, SINCE BIBLICAL TIMES, and quarantine THE CONTAGIOUS people rather than locking down the uninfected. Or do contact tracing isolation - like we’ve been doing with STD contacts pretty much for a hundred years.

look, nobody can help their ignorance, we are all born that way, but don’t spread yours. Take an epidemiology 101 course or something.

No government has adopted your views and no health official that knows what they’re talking about is advocating going the herd immunity route. As it would cause too many deaths with this virus. That’s not me saying that’s what the professionals that know more about this than you do have said.

They shut down the country to get the R number lower than 1 and are trying to get you to follow the health guidelines. That’s the best way for this to be over in a reasonable time.

Last edited by Knobcrk1; 06-14-2020 at 10:37 PM.
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Old 06-15-2020 | 03:47 AM
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Originally Posted by Knobcrk1
I said it’s the only way to quickly bring it down. As in with least amount of deaths and infections. It’s not the only way unless you want months and years of this.
What about if we all wore hazmat suits when we went out? .....or some other scaled down ppe similarly practical and suitable instead of a lockdown.....my point not the 'only' way.


'Least amount of deaths'....your digging that logic hole deeper. What lives are worth saving? Only those vulnerable to catching covid? What about those vulnerable to suicide etc? Again another baseless conclusion. You should have said (if I agreed with your statement).....'reduce the amount of deaths attributed to being directly infectes by COVID'

'Months and years'. Aren't we just flattening the curve? Thats exactly the aim. Oh and BTW..... The two opposing binary, black and white models of lockdown and no lockdown both have the same or similar infection rates.
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Old 06-15-2020 | 04:52 AM
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Case in point for my second paragraph above...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/14/health/coronavirus-vaccines-measles.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgt ype=Homepage
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Old 06-15-2020 | 08:45 AM
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Res ipsa loquitor
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Old 06-15-2020 | 11:24 PM
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As for the people saying 110,000 dead Americans is nothing because X number die of other causes are missing the point. It’s only 110,000 because we got R down by shutting down.
Originally Posted by Tom Bradys Cat
Prima facie you may be correct. But lets discect your logic because what you have written in one sentence sums up the ENTIRE lockdown argument.



110000 because we got R down. Correct, thats just maths. But you went on to draw a baseless conclusion and herein lies the problem. There is scant evidence that your theory is correct, its still a hypothesis.
In the timeline/universe I inhabit, we exercised a lockdown to mitigate spread while simultaneously instituting various other social distancing measures. What we are seeing is now the result of those combined actions. A squirrel in my neighborhood died, and I stepped on a butterfly. I can’t prove it, but my hypothesis is that lockdown and social distancing were responsible for lowering R more than the squirrel’s sacrifice.

Avoiding the ad populum fallacy; I’ll add that the United Kingdom, Germany, China, Korea, Australia, the UAE and the USA all took pretty much the same measures. I’ve been in/out of all of them since January. So, might I suggest that when the majority of the world has reached the same conclusions, maybe the burden of argument lies with those that are saying the majority is wrong?

Or, if you’re just trying to point out that I drew a conclusion that: the numbers we’re seeing now are a result of our earlier actions and when we acted. Then yes, that is a conclusion.

Last edited by samc; 06-15-2020 at 11:43 PM.
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Old 06-16-2020 | 04:05 AM
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Originally Posted by samc
In the timeline/universe I inhabit, we exercised a lockdown to mitigate spread while simultaneously instituting various other social distancing measures. What we are seeing is now the result of those combined actions. A squirrel in my neighborhood died, and I stepped on a butterfly. I can’t prove it, but my hypothesis is that lockdown and social distancing were responsible for lowering R more than the squirrel’s sacrifice.

Avoiding the ad populum fallacy; I’ll add that the United Kingdom, Germany, China, Korea, Australia, the UAE and the USA all took pretty much the same measures. I’ve been in/out of all of them since January. So, might I suggest that when the majority of the world has reached the same conclusions, maybe the burden of argument lies with those that are saying the majority is wrong?

Or, if you’re just trying to point out that I drew a conclusion that: the numbers we’re seeing now are a result of our earlier actions and when we acted. Then yes, that is a conclusion.
Just becaus eother countries did it doesnt mean its correct. And if thats your argumnet why are the numbers so different? After all it is the most effective measure (your words)

New York was on lockdown.......lots-a deaths.

hmm
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Old 06-16-2020 | 04:18 AM
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Beijing under a new major lockdown. I bet they are trying to improve CNN ratings! It must be another virus hoax.

It's strange how they are handling the virus compared to the United States.
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Old 06-16-2020 | 05:08 AM
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Originally Posted by nludy
Beijing under a new major lockdown. I bet they are trying to improve CNN ratings! It must be another virus hoax.

It's strange how they are handling the virus compared to the United States.
Yes exactly they did a lockdown which was only partly effective then they prematuerly opened it and low and behold the economy came back, alas they had to go back into lockdown. Really gotta snuff it out fully.

Take Canada for example, brilliant plan in Ontario, the exemplar; dont open economy until it is completely dead. No compromises.

And NZ. They sorta killed the virus (but now its back, dang nature and its sneaky ways that us mortal humans will never understand) but they never fully killes the economy. So they may have to go back into lockdown to make sure its dead.

Now the USA.....opened way to early. Its gonna be carnage. Parents will be ripped away from their kids for over 8hrs a day 5 days a week. Children will be forcebly placed in institutions five days a week. Hoards of people will migrate on mass halfway across the country to worship a man sized mouse. Traffic accidents will go up..... Oh the list is endless....and for what?....
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Old 06-16-2020 | 04:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Tom Bradys Cat
Children will be forcebly placed in institutions five days a week. Hoards of people will migrate on mass halfway across the country to worship a man sized mouse. Traffic accidents will go up..... Oh the list is endless....and for what?....
Human sacrifice! Dogs and cats living together. Mass hysteria!
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Old 06-16-2020 | 06:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Excargodog




Res ipsa loquitor
The funny thing about prediction models is that they're always changing.


Arizona and Florida are already spiking past the previous prediction only a few days ago.
Also, what happens after October 1st?

Don't be so smug.
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