150,000 Americans Dead
08-22-2020, 07:54 AM
#402
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,030
Originally Posted by Excargodog
OF COURSE I’ve seen those figures for US states. Only five of fifty are in excess of a thousand deaths per million, and for four of those it’s significantly attributable to the bone headed move of state mandated movement of contagious COVID patients to nursing homes full of very vulnerable people.
and if you want to perform the same fractionation process in Europe, picking out the 10% highest fatality rate provinces, or stadts, you’ll find much the same result.
Now if you have some better system than comparing population MEANS to determine rates of infection, do tell. Mathematicians and statisticians haven’t been able to come up with much of anything better for centuries but I’m sure they would appreciate you telling them where they’ve gone wrong.
As for:
a couple of comments:
1. You lack the authority (not to mention the credibility) to give me orders.
2. I post the FACTS. If the FACTS make it seem to you that “we have done good”, then maybe you ought to reconsider your own opinion that we haven’t “done good”.
and if you want to perform the same fractionation process in Europe, picking out the 10% highest fatality rate provinces, or stadts, you’ll find much the same result.
Now if you have some better system than comparing population MEANS to determine rates of infection, do tell. Mathematicians and statisticians haven’t been able to come up with much of anything better for centuries but I’m sure they would appreciate you telling them where they’ve gone wrong.
As for:
a couple of comments:
1. You lack the authority (not to mention the credibility) to give me orders.
2. I post the FACTS. If the FACTS make it seem to you that “we have done good”, then maybe you ought to reconsider your own opinion that we haven’t “done good”.
Last edited by Knobcrk1; 08-22-2020 at 08:09 AM.
08-22-2020, 08:39 AM
#403
:-)
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Posts: 7,339
Originally Posted by Knobcrk1
Yes thanks for pointing out the states I was talking about, they would be at the top of deaths per million for countries, if they were countries. So no we haven’t done well. The “facts” have been misrepresented. You’ve gone from it’s just testing, to death rates are still low, to well death rates are rising but look we’re not doing that bad. Your graphs don’t represent accurate relevant data to how well we’re doing. As far as credibility yes I’m sure you have a lot more than me with a day job of flying planes, if you still are. We all have the right to say something about your opinions on here, it’s a public forum.
08-22-2020, 09:13 AM
#404
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,063
Originally Posted by Knobcrk1
Yes thanks for pointing out the states I was talking about, they would be at the top of deaths per million for countries, if they were countries. So no we haven’t done well. The “facts” have been misrepresented. You’ve gone from it’s just testing, to death rates are still low, to well death rates are rising but look we’re not doing that bad. Your graphs don’t represent accurate relevant data to how well we’re doing. As far as credibility yes I’m sure you have a lot more than me with a day job of flying planes, if you still are. We all have the right to say something about your opinions on here, it’s a public forum.
08-22-2020, 11:00 AM
#405
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2011
Position: A320 FO
Posts: 849
Originally Posted by Knobcrk1
Yes thanks for pointing out the states I was talking about, they would be at the top of deaths per million for countries, if they were countries. So no we haven’t done well. The “facts” have been misrepresented. You’ve gone from it’s just testing, to death rates are still low, to well death rates are rising but look we’re not doing that bad. Your graphs don’t represent accurate relevant data to how well we’re doing. As far as credibility yes I’m sure you have a lot more than me with a day job of flying planes, if you still are. We all have the right to say something about your opinions on here, it’s a public forum.
08-22-2020, 11:04 AM
#406
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2011
Position: A320 FO
Posts: 849
Trending to 0.
Two graphs doing the exact same thing in different ways. One is a huge spike followed by a linear decrease the second is a big spike followed by a big drop followed by multiple spikes and drops caused by varying reopening schedules in different geographic areas.
The response is irrelevant. The virus is doing what all viruses do; it kills vulnerable people until it burns out. Totally sucks but no magic arm waving changes the outcome; it only delays it and causes negative second order effects.
Two graphs doing the exact same thing in different ways. One is a huge spike followed by a linear decrease the second is a big spike followed by a big drop followed by multiple spikes and drops caused by varying reopening schedules in different geographic areas.
The response is irrelevant. The virus is doing what all viruses do; it kills vulnerable people until it burns out. Totally sucks but no magic arm waving changes the outcome; it only delays it and causes negative second order effects.
08-23-2020, 01:23 AM
#407
Banned
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Apr 2017
Posts: 627
Originally Posted by tallpilot
Trending to 0.
IHME updated their model on Friday. It's bad. 310,000 dead by December 1 now. And I don't think you fully comprehend what letting the virus play out will do to the economy, your loved ones, and your job. It will be devastating. You want us to lay down and pretend this isn't happening, but that's not a reasonable expectation. This will affect people and will affect their behavior. And doing nothing will cost you more than fighting it.
Half a million Americans dead by the end of next summer at this rate.
"Trending to 0." You're a funny guy.
08-23-2020, 03:00 AM
#408
Banned
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Apr 2017
Posts: 627
For those who are wondering..
- The red line represents what would happen if we went back to normal with no restrictions today.
- The purple line represents the current situation and is IHME's primary projection for the future.
- The green line represents what would happen if we instituted a national mask wearing mandate today.
08-23-2020, 03:28 AM
#409
The NeverEnding Story
Joined APC: Sep 2005
Posts: 7,526
Assuming an IFR of 0.3%, 500k deaths would represent 166.7M actual infections. That’s a big top-line number for deaths, but only a year from now will we MAYBE actually have an idea how many excess deaths there were and what they were attributed to.
Pandemics gonna pandemic, and the cost of interventions (or lack thereof) HAS to consider not only the human toll, but the economic one.
Mitigations are to “Slow the spread” to insure medical resources for those who would need them...not “stop the spread” at any and all economic and societal cost for an IFR akin to 1968 H3N2 that is primarily killing senior citizens.
Take what we do know now and use it for targeted interventions to reduce bad outcome probabilities. To that end...
I’m not anti-mask at all - they are low cost and potentially high reward mitigation - but I’m admittedly somewhat dubious of a “national mask mandate” to meet their projected national impact. 34 states already have mandates and many population centers in states without a mandate have local mandate. How will capturing rural Alaska or Idaho (when ANC and BOI have mandates) substantially change the pandemic’s trajectory? Words don’t necessarily change behaviors; that comes from self-interest.
“The arrogance of man is thinking nature is in our control, and not the other way around.”
Pandemics gonna pandemic, and the cost of interventions (or lack thereof) HAS to consider not only the human toll, but the economic one.
Mitigations are to “Slow the spread” to insure medical resources for those who would need them...not “stop the spread” at any and all economic and societal cost for an IFR akin to 1968 H3N2 that is primarily killing senior citizens.
Take what we do know now and use it for targeted interventions to reduce bad outcome probabilities. To that end...
I’m not anti-mask at all - they are low cost and potentially high reward mitigation - but I’m admittedly somewhat dubious of a “national mask mandate” to meet their projected national impact. 34 states already have mandates and many population centers in states without a mandate have local mandate. How will capturing rural Alaska or Idaho (when ANC and BOI have mandates) substantially change the pandemic’s trajectory? Words don’t necessarily change behaviors; that comes from self-interest.
“The arrogance of man is thinking nature is in our control, and not the other way around.”
08-23-2020, 03:55 AM
#410
Banned
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Apr 2017
Posts: 627
Originally Posted by BoilerUP
How will capturing rural Alaska or Idaho (when ANC and BOI have mandates) substantially change the pandemic’s trajectory? Words don’t necessarily change behaviors; that comes from self-interest.
“The arrogance of man is thinking nature is in our control, and not the other way around.”
“The arrogance of man is thinking nature is in our control, and not the other way around.”
The hilarious thing about your quote is that the virus is spread by person to person only. So it's 100% in our control. It seems like a total cop-out to think otherwise.
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