150,000 Americans Dead
08-23-2020, 04:11 AM
#411
The NeverEnding Story
Joined APC: Sep 2005
Posts: 7,525
150,000 Americans Dead
Originally Posted by WutFace
The hilarious thing about your quote is that the virus spread is person to person only. So it's 100% in our control. It seems like a total cop-out to think otherwise.
The measures required for spread elimination simply are not practical. They would decimate local, state, national and global economies. Second and third order impacts would ABOUND and reverberate for decades.
Example:
“We could get over this if everybody got paid to stay home for four weeks.”
Everybody??? What’s that gonna look like with nobody staffing hospitals, no first responders, no delivery people?
“Well, maybe not everybody...”
Congrats, you get to go to work and expose yourself and your family and possibly contribute to spread while many others get paid to sit at home, what a swell deal. I’m certain they’ll in no way gather or do things that will further spread, either...
————-
Even New Zealand, a small island with a population barely that of Kentucky, “went hard early” with a shutdown Americans would NEVER tolerate and saw 100+ days of no cases and a return toward normalcy...now they have over 100 cases of unknown origin and are back toward being locked down. “Nature finds a way” and all that...
Mitigation is all we have, but within that reality considerations HAVE to be given to economic and social costs of such policies, not just clinical outcomes.
People are going to get sick, and people are going to die. It happens every day, even before COVID. If we can use strategies to minimize spread to help our economy and society persevere while biding time for hopeful eventual therapies and vaccine, that’s great...but policymakers cannot begin and end their decision tree on total case numbers and total deaths.
Last edited by BoilerUP; 08-23-2020 at 04:25 AM.
08-23-2020, 04:25 AM
#412
Banned
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Apr 2017
Posts: 627
Originally Posted by BoilerUP
Nationally, something approaching half of all COVID deaths were elderly long-term care facility residents. Some got sick from staff or visitors, other facilities were seeded with sick patients on order of their government. How was any of that within the control of the LTC facility deceased?
The measures required for spread elimination simply are not practical. They would decimate local, state, national and global economies. Second and third order impacts would ABOUND and reverberate for decades.
Example:
“We could get over this if everybody git paid to stay home for four weeks.”
Everybody??? What’s that gonna look like with nobody staffing hospitals, no first responders, no delivery people?
“Well, maybe not everybody...”
Congrats, you get to go to work and expose yourself and your family and possibly contribute to spread while many others get paid to sit at home, what a swell deal. I’m certain they’ll in no way gather or do things that will further spread, either...
————-
Even New Zealand, a small island with a population barely that of Kentucky, “went hard early” with a shutdown Americans would NEVER tolerate and saw 100+ days of no cases and a return toward normalcy...now they have over 100 cases of unknown origin and are back toward being locked down. “Nature finds a way” and all that...
Mitigation is all we have, but within that reality considerations HAVE to be given to economic and social costs of such policies, not just clinical outcomes.
People are going to get sick, and people are going to die. It happens every day, even before COVID. If we can use strategies to minimize spread to help our economy and society persevere while biding time for hopeful eventual therapies and vaccine, that’s great...but policymakers cannot begin and end their decision tree on total case numbers and total deaths.
The measures required for spread elimination simply are not practical. They would decimate local, state, national and global economies. Second and third order impacts would ABOUND and reverberate for decades.
Example:
“We could get over this if everybody git paid to stay home for four weeks.”
Everybody??? What’s that gonna look like with nobody staffing hospitals, no first responders, no delivery people?
“Well, maybe not everybody...”
Congrats, you get to go to work and expose yourself and your family and possibly contribute to spread while many others get paid to sit at home, what a swell deal. I’m certain they’ll in no way gather or do things that will further spread, either...
————-
Even New Zealand, a small island with a population barely that of Kentucky, “went hard early” with a shutdown Americans would NEVER tolerate and saw 100+ days of no cases and a return toward normalcy...now they have over 100 cases of unknown origin and are back toward being locked down. “Nature finds a way” and all that...
Mitigation is all we have, but within that reality considerations HAVE to be given to economic and social costs of such policies, not just clinical outcomes.
People are going to get sick, and people are going to die. It happens every day, even before COVID. If we can use strategies to minimize spread to help our economy and society persevere while biding time for hopeful eventual therapies and vaccine, that’s great...but policymakers cannot begin and end their decision tree on total case numbers and total deaths.
Regarding what Americans will "tolerate": We've become lazy, entitled, and self-interested. Here's the perfect opportunity to come together for the common good -- and we failed spectacularly. It makes me wonder how previous generations, especially the Greatest Generation, would have dealt with this crisis.
08-23-2020, 05:59 AM
#413
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,063
Originally Posted by WutFace
If by saying "Trending to 0" you actually mean, "Leveling off at 1,000+ deaths per day for the rest of 2020" then you're absolutely correct.
IHME updated their model on Friday. It's bad. 310,000 dead by December 1 now. And I don't think you fully comprehend what letting the virus play out will do to the economy, your loved ones, and your job. It will be devastating. You want us to lay down and pretend this isn't happening, but that's not a reasonable expectation. This will affect people and will affect their behavior. And doing nothing will cost you more than fighting it.
Half a million Americans dead by the end of next summer at this rate.
"Trending to 0." You're a funny guy.
IHME updated their model on Friday. It's bad. 310,000 dead by December 1 now. And I don't think you fully comprehend what letting the virus play out will do to the economy, your loved ones, and your job. It will be devastating. You want us to lay down and pretend this isn't happening, but that's not a reasonable expectation. This will affect people and will affect their behavior. And doing nothing will cost you more than fighting it.
Half a million Americans dead by the end of next summer at this rate.
"Trending to 0." You're a funny guy.
08-23-2020, 06:13 AM
#414
Banned
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Apr 2017
Posts: 627
Originally Posted by Flyfalcons
OMG! 310,000 out of 2.8 million, half of which were people waiting to die in nursing homes! Shut down the economy until there isn't a single case for three months!
It's sad that you're still fighting that fight.
08-23-2020, 06:30 AM
#415
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2011
Position: A320 FO
Posts: 849
Originally Posted by WutFace
You know what's funny? The comparisons to other death counts have been going on since this started in March. H1N1. Flu. Car accidents. Heart Disease. The COVID death count has exceeded every comparable metric that you now have to use EVERY DEATH IN AMERICA to make COVID look less scary.
It's sad that you're still fighting that fight.
It's sad that you're still fighting that fight.
- 0.011% of the US population under 65 have died of COVID
- 0.005% of the US population under 55 have died of COVID
- 0.0009% of the US population under 35 have died of COVID
- 0.0002% of the US population under 25 have died of COVID
- 0.00008% of the US population under 15 have died of COVID
Holy scary, Batman!
08-23-2020, 06:34 AM
#417
Speed, Power, Accuracy
Joined APC: Sep 2007
Position: PIC
Posts: 1,703
Originally Posted by tallpilot
- 0.011% of the US population under 65 have died of COVID
- 0.005% of the US population under 55 have died of COVID
- 0.0009% of the US population under 35 have died of COVID
- 0.0002% of the US population under 25 have died of COVID
- 0.00008% of the US population under 15 have died of COVID
Holy scary, Batman!
Holy EXTRA scary, Batman!
08-23-2020, 06:46 AM
#418
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,063
Originally Posted by WutFace
You know what's funny? The comparisons to other death counts have been going on since this started in March. H1N1. Flu. Car accidents. Heart Disease. The COVID death count has exceeded every comparable metric that you now have to use EVERY DEATH IN AMERICA to make COVID look less scary.
It's sad that you're still fighting that fight.
It's sad that you're still fighting that fight.
08-23-2020, 06:55 AM
#419
Banned
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Apr 2017
Posts: 627
Originally Posted by Flyfalcons
I think it's sad that you feel 0.1% of the US population dying from this, the vast majority of which are not working age, will have some devastating effect on our way of life. Get out of your mom's basement, turn off the 24/7 news cycle, and see that Americans are generally masking up and trying to do the best they can in the face of idiotic government mandates (make sure you order food with that beer!).
I'm thankful that people are coming around regarding masks. We've all got loved ones at risk. I want this over as quickly and with as few lives lost as possible.
08-23-2020, 06:56 AM
#420
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2011
Position: Left seat on a kite
Posts: 1,884
Trump has ‘major’ announcement tonight at 6pm on veeroos therapeutics.
https://nypost.com/2020/08/23/white-...-breakthrough/
https://nypost.com/2020/08/23/white-...-breakthrough/
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