Depends on if you're fine never really having much seniority and possibly being an FO the rest of your career or very junior captain.

 

21 years to go and never being a Captain?

 

Historically, for many, 20 years or so to upgrade was typical. Took me 17 years to get to the left seat of the MD88.

Given the current state of the world I'd be surprised to see the kind of movement of the last few years.

When I got hired, it was 5 years to the left seat.

 

Nowadays with “normalized” hiring/staffing, I think someone hired today would wait 7-8 years for first upgrade.

the insanity of the past few years, and the 20 year upgrades of your generation, are two extreme ends of the spectrum. We are currently firmly in the middle of the spectrum.

 

The second 737MAX, lay flat 321’s, 35K’s, and new expected WB order EOY all quit being delayed way past scheduled.. movement and hiring will be a solid 2-5 years to upgrade depending on BES..

The question is when. The days of anything near 10+ yr upgrades are long gone.. At the moment

 

Perhaps. Thinking and planning with certainty in this career will likely lead to disappointment. Considering the state of the world and our current political situation, a black swan may be right around the corner.

 

Coming in at 17,5xx with the jr captain at 14,1xx and trending senior... yep that's about 7 years just to be the plug again. Which is pretty quick, all things considered. I'll believe all the orders when they show up on the ramp. I'll believe the movement when I see it on the seniority list.

Not to mention, I'm sure there are plenty of senior FOs waiting for the right AE to upgrade. Won't help the 2023 hires in the left seat.

 

It will always be based on need to hire. Poor financial performance will stall hiring and stagnate movement. Furloughs will build in long upgrades. Conversely mass early outs will create need and fast upgrades. Hopefully we don't see ethier again anytime soon. Replacement plus 2.5% growth would be about 950 per year and gradually increase. If 1st opportunity to upgrade is 80% seniority, then it will take about 4 years. Many will wait for better seniority and normal upgrades will be about 6+ years.

 

Couple of questions... Are you a 44 year old with an interview/CJO/potential class date? What are you walking away from? These things change the calculus. Many (like myself) came to DAL later in life and have been very happy with the jump, I was >50, but that was in 2014. My timing was a merely product of Devine intervention. It was a different time, and those days are over here. The new normal here is still pretty good but do your own due diligence. The value of driving to work can be difficult to quantify. YMMV

Verdell posted a splatter chart on a thread here that displayed pilots on the seniority list with age vs seniority #, it's a fabulous graphic to visualize where you sit in the pecking order by age. As time passes the graph continuously shifts to the right until your dot falls off.



Use caution, I would reemphasize what CBreezy stated, if you get here, you will be junior, likely for the duration.

 

I didn't say that. If he's coming over here for QOL, with 21 years (likely 20 since I'm assuming he isn't in the pool yet and there are probably going to be hiring him in 27, he has to be okay with just being an FO with decent seniority OR a pretty junior NB captain for the remainder of his career.