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Old 09-15-2025 | 07:51 AM
  #5631  
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Originally Posted by Ripinpeace
The second 737MAX, lay flat 321’s, 35K’s, and new expected WB order EOY all quit being delayed way past scheduled.. movement and hiring will be a solid 2-5 years to upgrade depending on BES..

The question is when. The days of anything near 10+ yr upgrades are long gone.. At the moment
Many things still remaining for MAX 10 cert - bleed system, cowl ice and up until recently the HUD. Also lurking out there after cert is the FAA production cap on MAX. The lie flats are back to the drawing board.

Originally Posted by CBreezy
I didn't say that. If he's coming over here for QOL, with 21 years (likely 20 since I'm assuming he isn't in the pool yet and there are probably going to be hiring him in 27, he has to be okay with just being an FO with decent seniority OR a pretty junior NB captain for the remainder of his career.
This is pretty spot on.
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Old 09-15-2025 | 07:54 AM
  #5632  
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Originally Posted by Hotel Kilo
Many things still remaining for MAX 10 cert - bleed system, cowl ice and up until recently the HUD. Also lurking out there after cert is the FAA production cap on MAX. The lie flats are back to the drawing board.


This is pretty spot on.
I don't know how true it is, but I saw an article talking about SWA having to accept that the MAX 7 pulled its certification exemption which pushes it back until likely 27. And the MAX 10 can't be certified until after the 7.
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Old 09-15-2025 | 08:10 AM
  #5633  
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Originally Posted by Hotel Kilo
The lie flats are back to the drawing board.


Why not install current/updated 1st class seating and get these airplanes flying while we wait for the lie flats to go through the process again? Any downsides to this?
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Old 09-15-2025 | 08:34 AM
  #5634  
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Originally Posted by sailingfun
21 years to go and never being a Captain?
never being a senior CA is a possibility, especially in ATL.

someone hired today with 21 years to go would retire between 7,500-8,000 system seniority. In ATL today that roughly translates to 55-70% 320/737/ER CA.

A lot of that movement comes in the last 5 years, they would still be around 10,000 at 60 yo.
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Old 09-15-2025 | 08:51 AM
  #5635  
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Originally Posted by CBreezy
I don't know how true it is, but I saw an article talking about SWA having to accept that the MAX 7 pulled its certification exemption which pushes it back until likely 27. And the MAX 10 can't be certified until after the 7.
Pretty close. I've pretty much been posting on here MAX 10 is a 2027 event.

I dont know about the serial cert of MAX 7 to MAX 10. Last I heard they are similar and running parallel
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Old 09-15-2025 | 08:55 AM
  #5636  
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Originally Posted by planejoe
Why not install current/updated 1st class seating and get these airplanes flying while we wait for the lie flats to go through the process again? Any downsides to this?

Not sure how those will "fit" into the NEO seating plan, and whether the attachment rails are compatible.
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Old 09-15-2025 | 12:28 PM
  #5637  
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Originally Posted by Tyler Brisbon
Historically, for many, 20 years or so to upgrade was typical. Took me 17 years to get to the left seat of the MD88.

Given the current state of the world I'd be surprised to see the kind of movement of the last few years.

When I got hired, it was 5 years to the left seat.
I never saw 17 year upgrades. The old gouge was always 12 years to CA and 20 to widebody CA. If you waited until 17 years it likely was to get the base and seniority level you desired. There were some slow periods such as when the 96 contract pulled 350 CA positions from pilots about to upgrade and sent them to junior pilots and what happened after 911.
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Old 09-15-2025 | 01:47 PM
  #5638  
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Originally Posted by sailingfun
I never saw 17 year upgrades. The old gouge was always 12 years to CA and 20 to widebody CA. If you waited until 17 years it likely was to get the base and seniority level you desired. There were some slow periods such as when the 96 contract pulled 350 CA positions from pilots about to upgrade and sent them to junior pilots and what happened after 911.
Yeah but plenty of 16 year upgrades
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Old 09-15-2025 | 02:00 PM
  #5639  
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Originally Posted by sailingfun
I never saw 17 year upgrades. The old gouge was always 12 years to CA and 20 to widebody CA. If you waited until 17 years it likely was to get the base and seniority level you desired. There were some slow periods such as when the 96 contract pulled 350 CA positions from pilots about to upgrade and sent them to junior pilots and what happened after 911.
You must be dehydrated from all the sailing. You're making a bunch of assumptions.
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Old 09-15-2025 | 02:41 PM
  #5640  
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Originally Posted by Tyler Brisbon
You must be dehydrated from all the sailing. You're making a bunch of assumptions.
His overall point is valid though. There really isn’t a historical norm. It’s always changing. And it certainly isn’t 17 years, which is an extreme outlier, caused by the lost decade.

2 years is the other extreme. The middle of that is 9-5 years, give or take. And that’s probably about right for ‘stable’ times.
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