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Old 04-26-2026 | 08:50 AM
  #311  
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Originally Posted by notEnuf
I think it's coming but the severity is TBD. We made it through the 1970s and we will make it through this. This is why little Peter double tapped drug boats in the gulf of America. We will see sources and production shifts if the straight stays closed.
this guy gets it. the 70s and associated interest rates were tough. really tough. im prepared being long uso (since $80) and heavily in cash (mainly due a tripling of my heavy amd position the past year) however, it won’t be the epic disaster some have predicted and seem to be gleeful for to finally tell the world that they were right (imo).
time to spend some play $$$.
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Old 04-26-2026 | 09:26 AM
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Originally Posted by notEnuf
I have watched trip go from gleeful sailing 2.0 to a realist. He does seem to have a chicken little quality but other than his AI rants and bombast he has some good insights and seems to be weaning off the Kool aide.
The last time i saw him "weened off the koolaid" was not being able to make it on the 4th floor, for lack of a better phrase. I know its more complicated than than, but what a remarkable turn.

anyway:
Peddling FUD because he wants people to share his anxiety of the future is a coping mechanism. I dont recommend people looking at that stuff, be a little more present in life. Theres a big market for FUD, im just not buying, and if you need it to feel prepared theres tons of it to find on your own.
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Old 04-26-2026 | 09:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Uninteresting
, it won’t be the epic disaster some have predicted and seem to be gleeful for to finally tell the world that they were right (imo).
Do you have an example of someone that is a US citizen being “gleeful” to see an economic crisis?

genuinely curious
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Old 04-26-2026 | 09:39 AM
  #314  
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Originally Posted by theUpsideDown
The last time i saw him "weened off the koolaid" was not being able to make it on the 4th floor, for lack of a better phrase. I know its more complicated than than, but what a remarkable turn.

anyway:
Peddling FUD because he wants people to share his anxiety of the future is a coping mechanism. I dont recommend people looking at that stuff, be a little more present in life. Theres a big market for FUD, im just not buying, and if you need it to feel prepared theres tons of it to find on your own.
I didn't know who you are but whatever idea about me and the 4th floor you need to make up to make yourself feel better about yourself keep it up. You've been peddling this story for years.

I have a passion for reading, investing, financial independence and 24hr+ layovers in nice cities/islands, not cubicle life on Virginia Ave.

As far as FUD, there is a Tsunami coming and you're telling people on the Beach to just look away. Brilliant. We'll find out shortly how that works out
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Old 04-26-2026 | 09:41 AM
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Originally Posted by Hubcapped
Do you have an example of someone that is a US citizen being “gleeful” to see an economic crisis?

genuinely curious
I mean, there's the Albert Einstein quote: "In the midst of every crisis, lies great opportunity."

Not saying Albert's statement is "gleeful", but certainly one could imagine a not-insignificant number of people (including US citizens) salivating at the idea of a crisis.
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Old 04-26-2026 | 09:47 AM
  #316  
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Originally Posted by Uninteresting
this guy gets it. the 70s and associated interest rates were tough. really tough. im prepared being long uso (since $80) and heavily in cash (mainly due a tripling of my heavy amd position the past year) however, it won’t be the epic disaster some have predicted and seem to be gleeful for to finally tell the world that they were right (imo).
time to spend some play $$$.
Telling people a Tsunami that's clearly in sight is coming is not being gleeful.

The debate is not whether the glass is half empty or full when it's clearly nearly empty.

5+5 is clearly 10 but folks on here are trying to say no it's 12 because Trip7 was wrong about TA1

Lastly, if you're saying the 70s was really really tough but not an epic disaster well you and plenty of experts having a differing opinion on what's an epic disaster:

Could take 6 Months to Clear Mines according to the Pentagon.

2-3 Months to Clear Storage and Reroute Tankers.3+ Months to Repair Infrastructure and Reactivate Facilities.

The extent of infrastructure damage is not fully understood or potentially even “over”.
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Old 04-26-2026 | 10:05 AM
  #317  
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Originally Posted by Trip7
Telling people a Tsunami that's clearly in sight is coming is not being gleeful.

The debate is not whether the glass is half empty or full when it's clearly nearly empty.

5+5 is clearly 10 but folks on here are trying to say no it's 12 because Trip7 was wrong about TA1

Lastly, if you're saying the 70s was really really tough but not an epic disaster well you and plenty of experts having a differing opinion on what's an epic disaster:
The quote about recovery being long is where we disagree. Once the shooting war is done and there is peace it is in the entire planet's interest to pitch in to help the recovery. Our allies WILL send minesweepers, the gulf oil states WILL step in to cooperate with the oil supplies returning to market, China WILL send proxies to help in their own interest to keep imports flowing. I think even the eco crowd will so opportunities to reduce dependence on oil. etc.

Last edited by notEnuf; 04-26-2026 at 10:17 AM.
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Old 04-26-2026 | 10:06 AM
  #318  
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Originally Posted by Hubcapped
Do you have an example of someone that is a US citizen being “gleeful” to see an economic crisis?

genuinely curious
does the democrat who last ran for president count?
“we knew this was gonna happen and I don’t mean to say I told you so, but I told you so -begin the cackling.
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Old 04-26-2026 | 10:15 AM
  #319  
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Originally Posted by notEnuf
Thye quote about recovery being long is where we disagree. Once the shooting war is done and there is peace it is in the entire planets interest to pitch in to help the recovery. Our allies WILL send minesweepers, the gulf oil states WILL step in to cooperate in the oil supplies returning to market, China WILL send proxies to help in their own interest to keep imports flowing. etc.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/23/b...-android-share

The recovery for jet fuel and diesel will be 12m+. Complex Refineries around the world that produce high yields of jet fuel and diesel aren't grown on trees. It will take several months just to get the trapped medium sour crude oil out of the middle east, let alone getting those tankers returned to normal traffic flow.

We'll get thru this. But like the 70s, it will be a tough tough tough few years. We are already past the breaking point in the Oil market.


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Old 04-26-2026 | 10:20 AM
  #320  
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Originally Posted by Trip7
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/23/b...-android-share

The recovery for jet fuel and diesel will be 12m+. Complex Refineries around the world that produce high yields of jet fuel and diesel aren't grown on trees. It will take several months just to get the trapped medium sour crude oil out of the middle east, let alone getting those tankers returned to normal traffic flow.

We'll get thru this. But like the 70s, it will be a tough tough tough few years. We are already past the breaking point in the Oil market.
There will be damage but agree to disagree on the severity and timeline.
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