Mostly in terms up upgrade time... how accurate are the upgrade times according to WS? trianing department folks keep making comments about how upgrade times are ~1-2 yrs. I understand this was the case for folks hired 3 years ago or so; but for a new hire today, this seems highly unlikely according to what I see in WS. how much stock should new hires put in WS projections?

 

No one can tell you that. There are several thousand FOs who could upgrade but haven't. The only reason someone can hold the left seat at Delta in 2-3 years is because an 8-year FO decided not to upgrade.

 

As of right now, the projections are pretty accurate. Widget seniority accounts for 1% growth in the model as well. That's a bit conservative (or is it?).

You are looking at minimum 5-6 years to hold the plug as a narrowbody captain at the current pace. Crystal ball is hazy.

I will say one thing....1-2 year upgrade times are not a thing anymore. If you're just now getting on property, you won't be able to upgrade before 2030.

 

Speaking for my own base/seat.... 73NA plug is 13,100-ish. I'm 15,100-ish after 1.75 years. I'm guessing upgrade in 3-5 years? So 5-6 years on property? I think I could upgrade sooner if I left my base and commuted to the Big Apple....but aint nobody got time fo dat.

 

To add to this...
15.1k seniority after 1.5 years on property.
16.4k seniority after 1 year on property.
NB plug is around 14.3k-ish?

New hires come in at 17.5k and move up 500 numbers per year. Extrapolate from there to get to ~14.5k. 6 years. No one knows what the fleet will look like at that point. Hopefully MAX and NEO have picked up. 75/76 slowly retiring. 717 could be gone by then with all the cracks they're finding.

 

I'm still trying to figure out how a 3rd party vendor can access personal data about Detla pilots, sold out by Delta, so the vendor can montize it.

But it's probably since the clown running it was one of the most managment-friendly union shills in airline history. Yeah, that's you, curly.

Amazing how this guy gets a complete pass on Delta's privacy and cyber security policies.

 

We can't see WidgetSeniority "as you", so it's hard to know what the upgrade timing is showing, but I will confidently tell you that 1-2 year Captain upgrades are absolutely, 100% not happening for someone hired today. Unless you misunderstood what the training department folks said, anyone saying that is doing you a disseervice, and I would disregard them completely.

IF you haven't seen it, check out the AE Analysis thread (it's pinned within the DL forum, hit 'back' once). You can see the last 18 months of data for each bid, which shows a pretty consistent senior trend for NB Captain, which now sits in the very low 80's% overall seniority. ("Percent overall seniority" is by far the most accurate predictor, and has stayed relatively stable over time, regardless of the size of the list). There will always be some outlier bids (especially if relatively small in size, or suddenly large after a period of time). Note that WB FO trends are quite flat about 72% overall.

While past reality is clear, future predictions are always tough, as unforseen variables can change the calculus, even subltly. But the question you should ask is, "how long to hold X% seniority", knowing that we are retireing pretty close to 500/year for the next 7-8 years, then 400/year after that. What "Pilot Hiring" does is super hazy, but 1% growth is conservative. The company is saying 3-4% growth (note, that's not necessarily in pilots), but 2-3% pilot growth is probably reasonable. Doing the math, you are likely looking at 4-5 years, at least.

 

add in the inevitable age 68 and all bets are off.

 

It's 68 now? Since when?

 

thought it was 67 and 364 days?