I think the combination of the 717's coming on property along with the retirements kicking in at the end of 2013 will hopefully start the hiring wave. Throw in some bad economic news, pilots staying until 65 and the hiring might not happen until 2014 imo. My guess is we're looking at a solid 1.5 - 2 years of additional stagnation.

Well when we see the final early out numbers, I suggest everyone make a copy of the list, ie. how many, and from which categories, and hold on to that for a year, so you can compare how many left, to how many are replaced in each A/E.

I thought this A/E was good for 270 days or nearly that? If that is the case, why couldn't they backfill almost all the early outs now, and train and convert when needed, since it's such a long period, it should cover next summer's flying, right?

251 outs, only being replaced by 86 openings? That don't sound right. Just keep a copy of the final early out numbers and we'll see what the next A/E has...but I'm not holding my breath waiting for all 251 (or 225 if 10% pull out) A/E's to replace them all. I would like to see that, but I doubt we will.

There are some 737-900 positions in there, and they aren't coming until next year, right?

I agree, even though they aren't backfilling all the vacated positions, there are some widebody A seats vacated which results in a chunk of movement.

All upward movement is good.

The one thing I noticed is 9 50 seaters left last quarter and 40 more leave in October. There won't be any 717s and therefore any CR9s for another year.

Unless OH CR2s are being moved?

I suggest you read the memo associated with AE posted on the Crew Resources and Scheduling page. It will answer a lot of your questions. :)

This AE is a 210 day conversion window. Also, it's likely we will see at least 1 more AE this year followed by one very early in 2013. Marketing is still solidifying the 2013 block hour plan.

I agree, this AE is very small. However almost all of the openings are in the left seat. Does anyone really think they won't fill the B seats that are vacated as folks move up.

Read the memo on DLNET. We're still waiting for the network guys and the MBAs to decide which way we'll go for next summer before we really start to do anything. I think this bid is positive with 86 more openings than displacements and while I don't want to put too much sunshine on your doom and gloom parade, WB A positions generate the most training events and as folks move up they'll have to replace some of them. The largest category to lose folks to the RMA was the 7ERA and they didn't take the opportunity to further shrink the ATL 767 category.

For all of your ulcers' sakes, lighten up! For the record, I was a no voter.

Overstaffed? I'm a NYC 7er B reserve, & we ran out of reserves almost everyday in July. I worked 80 hours/4 trips and managed only 3 days of LC. The WX hasn't even been bad this summer as the Midwest is in a terrible drought. The NYC 320B category is the same way. They are often lucky to have 1 guy on SC a day. DTW/MSP 320B is short too. I know Elvis90 has been getting hammered on M88 B reserve. If anything, we are properly staffed. Definitely not overstaffed IMO.

Yep,

July was very profitable for me and many of my NYC APC bubbas. A couple of well placed T-storms and the whole place melts down. Met a guy who had just been called out for his 4th GS of the month.

The other guys in my Crash Pad who are on either reserve on the 7ERA/B are getting used a lot and for really good trips. Zurich, Prague etc

Speaking of GSs, anyone get rolling thunder going? If so, what categories?

This may be anecdotal, but I think we are properly staffed. If on occasion during the summer they have adverse weather during the transition to a new month and that spill over happens on a weekend (where they reduced staffing compared to years past) they run out of pilots, they're probably okay with that.

If they run out of pilots on a clear mid week day with no weather in the forecast, then we're understaffed.