Is she legal?

 

I beleive so. Not 11% like some have said but there is a good deal across all fleets.

 

If we want to be more efficient the first thing we needed to do was fix the reserve problem- and the TA did do that.

We've got pilots averaging 45 hours a month, some flying 0 a month under the new bucket system. That's a problem. Maximum efficiency will be reached at 60 hours per reserve pilot on average.

The old PWA, I'll admit this, prevented this from happening with the 70 hour reserve pilot. With ALV+15, the WB categories will need fewer pilots right now. Then as attrition or the RMA kicks in, we can begin to increase line holder ALVs as fewer pilots fly the same amount (or less) block hours and therein help push the reserve pilots to 60 hours.

Then we'll hire. And do so knowing we've hit maximum staffing efficiency.

 

Bar....... you had me all excited for about a second.... Then let down the next!

 

Then less than 10% isn't really much of a carry, especially in small categories, especially when we still have a good bit of mandatory retirement movement in those fleets in the coming years. I was suprised to see how few age 64'ers took it. I think we had 85 mandatory outs for 2013 and only 20 something took this out? I bet several dozen of the remaining ones for 2013 are from the large WB fleets. Not only that, but ALPA says the average age to punch out is 62 or 63 anyway, so we will start to see more leave from later years next year as well.

Would they really run a displacement for what, 5-7% of relatively small categories, just in time to immediately post an AE to backfull the displacement? I don't think so, and if they don't, is it realy fair to call that slight buffer a carry?

They aren't flushing the tiny transient surplus because it makes no sense to do so. Not because we're sitting on a lot of fat and they are just trying to be nice about it.

 

That was the LBO. Point is CH11 and we are far from it. Bunker mentality has got to stop.

So what? They don't and cannot flex bodies between peaks and lulls. They flex in summer and so do we. We have effectively matched the efficency and staffing. Good on us.


Line consstruction is the initial part of it. Most line holders fly to max pickup if they can. That is 87 in a month with a ALV of 72 and 99 in a month with 84.

They rerun the avg fly every year and it is between 85-87 hrs almost every year. Even fat years.


Bad for you if we are going to match efficencies. The FT/DT LOA still needs to be done next year.

What are you willing to match?
ULH augmentation
8-12 hr augmenation to FT DT?

Little nuggets like the CAL IRO DH stuff are areas we can eek efficiency out of. Keep that in mind.

We are in a non concessionary environment and we conceded work rules and efficiencies. My Reps say that those that filled out the surveys were more than willing to concede working more for a few hrs of pay each month. When I did the math on how I have credited and timed out, it could be four to six more days on the hook.

Many want it to be ALV +7.5 not 15. Well its going to take bargaining captial to get that back next time.


We have what we have and the TA was hashed out and the majority voted yes, even if they did not like it. That is fact. Lets look at what we have and try to improve on it. We will have consolidation or the FT/DT LOA that are our nearest opportunities and threats to what we currently have as our book. We need to find ways to raise the bar, industry wide, not match the lower book in hopes of being more competitive. If max efficiency is our goal, then what is the point of work rules? Just make it FAR limits and be done with it. I want to see improvements in our career, not the other way around.

 

ACL is right... the economy overshadows all of this. Right now, things are touch and go at best. Currently, there are 3 million less passengers PER MONTH flying domestically industry wide than there were in 2007.

The reasons why are one thing, but when running an airline profitably is the main consideration, growth into these kinds of numbers would be a disaster.

SD's letter about waiting for marketing's plan is essentially saying the same thing. The tea leaves point towards more shrinkage right now... it's just not a good economy.

 

Well look at it this way.

If the 757's are kept no, they will not, but if they are parked, they can staff the initial 739's with those bodies. Most likely from ATL.

With the work rule changes and the ability to hire for winter and not summer, we are able to flex the summer. That change allows DAL to hold when it comes to hiring. As for those pilots that are soon to be retired. They are gambling. Will the age get raised or not? Probably not, but the 35K or so was not worth them leaving I guess. Its a small amount of bodies until about 2015 when real attirition starts to kick in.

On the 744 they added some but not all of the bodies back in. They can do that due to the mod line currently going on. Come the Oct AE those bodies will need to be added back in. On the 777 they have been cutting staffing overall on the last few bids. The 765 has many trips that cannot be covered in the initial line construction and for that fact, the reserve staffing will remian high. This is partially true for the 330 as well, but it has some shorter trips in there as well. On the ER, they were short system wide for about six week this year. With the reserve changes they can get though next summer with no changes, and can staff the 739 from the domestic 767 category as the total block time for all 767/757 flying goes down. If they use the 757 and flex, then it will trigger hiring. The 73N has been short and ATL has been doing a ton of NYC flying. The 320 has been generally short as well, and the reserve changes will really help these categories. On the 88 they have been short since they added 20% to their block plan.

With the cuts they have announced for next year combined with the work rule changes there is a slight overstaffing in each seat. In my estimate, it ranges from 5-15 bodies in each seat in each base. One thing that muddies the water is reserve utilization and how efficient the rotation construction is of the assigned trips. Calling pilots out for rotations that had to be created due to IROPs cause the efficiency to go down. We have seen a lot of this in the last six weeks.

If I were a guessing man, work rule changes and the combined drop in capacity will allow DAL to get through most of 2013 with no need for new pilots. Any event like keeping the 757's around will change that.

As for the surpluses in each seat, I agree it makes no sense, unless you do not see a need for them within 12-15 months. The 767 category and what they do with the 757's is the key on how the narrow body staffing and AE's or displacements will result.

 

There is no longer an Oct AE planned.

 

What Oct AE? SD's letter Monday stated an AE the END of this year or EARLY next year. Sounds to me it will be a other disappointing small ONE AE, with NO hiring. They can staff the 900's with the overages we are carrying and the 717's with the drawdown of the dc9. I'm a half FULL glass kinda guy, but with the economy overshadowing everything....looks dim for hiring until 2014.