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Originally Posted by SailorJerry
(Post 1291331)
But that's the very reason the airframes come in September. We go from running around like chickens with our heads cut off for 3 months at an ALV of 84 but then the block hours drop in September. So instead of dropping to an ALV of 72 we drop to an ALV of 76 to absorb the training load. It's an economies of scale issue. In a category of 75 line holders, a one hour change in ALV covers the absence of one pilot. If we only add 6 airframes a month, we add an hour of ALV to 12 categories, or a 12 hour increase in the global sum of ALV and we have the staffing issue covered. Hiring MUST commence shortly thereafter to absorb a full schedule of ALV=84 flying for summer 2014. Thus, the reason we won't ever be able to stop hiring, but the reason we've been able to dodge it thus far. Can't say that we weren't sold down the river on the TA thing, but this is the closest I can get to a legitimate, analytical answer regarding hiring (an answer absent the typical political infighting).
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Originally Posted by gloopy
(Post 1291454)
While that seems like a fair assessment based on the facts at hand, hiring could still be a long ways off if we keep shrinking to profitability. The EU is incredibly screwed and nowhere near a sustainable recovery. Neither are we honestly. There may be a few quarters of sugar high money printing bubblenomics here and there, but we better figure out how to compete and win in a severely cut throat economic enviroment and that includes taking it to the competition instead of perpetually yielding capacity. That includes our competition as well as our "partners" AF and Korean and maybe VA. They both think we will keep giving them the better end of the deal but we better be prepared to force it on them, up to and includng changing alliances if necessary. Especially Korean. They are nothing without us. Absolutely nothing. And AF/KLM needs us every bit as much as we need them. Neither one of them has any leverage over us beyond what we chose to gift them.
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Originally Posted by Phuz
(Post 1291357)
I can buy my multi engine rating for $4000 in a 4day program! Probably a good idea i heard i need that before i can fly CAP in the Delta F-16
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Originally Posted by Sink r8
(Post 1291314)
Let's take me, for example. I'm not negative: I'm fully willing to be convinced. I voted for the TA. I just haven't seen the gain in airframes yet, or the reultant advancement. The recent bid(s) have been marginal. Every post-TA AE that doesn't actually help a Delta pilot's advancement, hurts the case for optimism. It's that simple.
As for your last paragraph, it makes little sense. Hiring needs to start before the seats arrive. While the right seat of the 717 can be filled with newhires, the left seat will not. Presumably, since we're going to see benefits in terms of mainline growth, the replacements for those that move to said left seat, need to be in position early. Ergo, advancement must lead the airframes by some period. There is essentially one more bid left to validate or disprove your optimism. I did expect hiring to start by now, based on the noises made by DAL and ALPA in June, but the bottom line is that it's still early to call this. Early 2013 will reveal all. Meanwhile, don't be surprised or upset if some are skeptical. We've learned to be cautious with our optimisim. Do you find that surprising? I'm not pessimistic or optimistic, I'm realistic. I agree that hiring would need to occur ahead of aircraft arrival, so we will see what happens as we get near summer/fall of 2013. There will only be 9 717's by the end of the year and the 739's are slated as replacement for old 320/757 airframes. As mentioned before, upping the ALV for a month or two more will allow the staffing to handle the created openings, but it still has to fall within the TLV limit. Hey, I'm no stranger to the lack of movement, being this close to the bottom of the list is maddening. My original question is better paraphrased: "Why are you surprised by these AE's? We don't have a growing airline and have had few retirements until this fall. There is NO reason to be upset at the stability of the category lists." ***For those who don't know: the TLV is higher by ONE hour in the new PWA, the ALV has an upper limit 2 hours higher; 72-84 instead of 72-82. |
Originally Posted by johnso29
(Post 1291458)
Based on our recent numbers, I think we've got that one figured out.
We can't just keep shrinking to buff the margins. That is pure genius quarter to quarter if youre trying to get an A on an MBA midterm, but very distructive in the long run. Yeah I know, once we hit 10B in debt magic will happen, etc. |
Originally Posted by shiznit
(Post 1291463)
Who said anything about the TA? I don't think the TA has anything to do with the lack of movement this year. Beyond that, I'm not sure why you feel the need to be "convinced" of anything... The last two AE's have resulted in more CA's than FO's and there hasn't been any hiring. We are still negative net airframes since the merger yet there was some hiring in 2010... Overall we haven't been "hurt" by the merger compared to say.... every other medium or large scale airline merger in recent history (and many from further back too)?
I'm not pessimistic or optimistic, I'm realistic. I agree that hiring would need to occur ahead of aircraft arrival, so we will see what happens as we get near summer/fall of 2013. There will only be 9 717's by the end of the year and the 739's are slated as replacement for old 320/757 airframes. As mentioned before, upping the ALV for a month or two more will allow the staffing to handle the created openings, but it still has to fall within the TLV limit. Hey, I'm no stranger to the lack of movement, being this close to the bottom of the list is maddening. My original question is better paraphrased: "Why are you surprised by these AE's? We don't have a growing airline and have had few retirements until this fall. There is NO reason to be upset at the stability of the category lists." ***For those who don't know: the TLV is higher by ONE hour in the new PWA, the ALV has an upper limit 2 hours higher; 72-84 instead of 72-82. |
Originally Posted by gloopy
(Post 1291466)
We're definately doing some things right for sure. But for long term sustainability, we can't keep shrinking to profitability. I'm pleased to see us taking it to JB and VA in limited circumstances/markets. That's definately a positive sign IMO. But that's over shadowed by the blank check our management's given to a rabidly ambitious Alaska as well as admissions from our VP's that we're running from marketshare to yield to the dual subsidized SJS super premium "heros of Farnsborough" foreign carriers. That can not continue. Something has to give. It will be them or it will be us. The domestic LCC's have hundreds of growth narrowbodies on firm order too and many are planing on further invading DL hubs counting on us gifting them that capacity to preserve our margins at any cost. Again, something will have to give and I'm still not confident we are able, and especially willing, to compete and win, long term.
We can't just keep shrinking to buff the margins. That is pure genius quarter to quarter but very distructive in the long run. Yeah I know, once we hit 10B in debt magic will happen, etc. |
Average daily seats comparison from Oct 08 to Oct 12 (16 largest DL cities on 2012):
Hub/ Oct08/ Oct12/ Chg/ Pct chg ATL: 112,804/120,540/7,737/6.9% DTW: 44,968/42,629/(2,339)/(5.2%) MSP: 44,280/40,824/(3,456)/(7.8%) SLC: 22,173/22,591/418/1.9% LGA: 13,928/22,481/8,552/61.4% JFK: 20,672/20,243/(429)/(2.1%) LAX: 9,755/13,871/4,116/42.2% MEM: 16,979/8,239/(8,740)/(51.5%) CVG: 19,882/8,112/(11,771)/(59.2%) MCO: 7,683/7,983/300/3.9% BOS: 10,057/7,778/(2,279)/(22.7%) NRT: 7,354/6,470/(885)/(12.0%) LAS: 5,608/6,383/775/13.8% DCA: 8,232/5,933/(2,299)/(27.9%) SFO: 4,669/5,683/1,014/21.7% SEA: 5,908/5,575/(333)/(5.6%) Total system capacity down 9% compared to Oct 2008. |
About this shortage of inexpensive pilots...
I saw an interesting post elsewhere that made me think about the "shortage", and the leverage it would produce for us. I've been thinking that, with the supply of pilots going down, our value would go up. After all, considering what we make now, who is going to want to risk the intial investment, and the uncertain outcome, of starting an airline pilot career? Which answers my own question. You don't have to make the career worth the investment, you just need to remove the investment hurdle. What if, in lieu of a signing bonus, airlines provided free training in a 2-year program for hand-picked applicants? College requirement: waived. College debt: zero. Time to graduate: cut in half. Negotiate something with the FAA to further loosen the 750-hour requirement under the excuse of needing to match the JAA Multi-Crew Pilot license, invest a few million in lobbying, say... 500 hours (more than the Europeans). Put in proper training notes so that people have a lengthy commitment, and you have a program. Think that wouldn't attract some pretty bright people? Depressing, I know, but it seems to me you could get pilots cheaper by investing heavily in the new pilots, not the old pilots. I wonder if the contract allows the company to have future pilots on the book that aren't pilots yet? |
I'm looking to get a new headset, I've been looking at the Bose A20, the Telex 850, Sennheiser HMEC 46 and also Telex's new Ascend headset.
Anyone have any experience with these? The Bose appears to be the best, but I'm concerned that the passive noise reduction will block out the other pilot, not just general conversation, but also checklists. Maybe this headset is better suited for GA aircraft or turboprops then our jets. Is that a valid concern? Does the Sennheiser and Telex 850 do an adequate reducing noise? And what about this Ascend headset from Telex. Looks interesting in that it uses the aircraft power, not batteries, like the 850, but can also be used in the back of the aircraft listening to music on your iPhone or watching a movie. Seems a little more substantial than the 850. I'd be interested in hearing about any experience with these or other headsets in our Delta aircraft. |
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