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-   -   Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta? (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/delta/36912-any-latest-greatest-about-delta.html)

sailingfun 04-15-2013 09:52 AM


Originally Posted by flyallnite (Post 1391403)
I've asked that same ? and have been told that it won't affect/will be in addition to the NRT flying. Personally, I don't believe that. The last thing this company wants to do is increase the fleet size and thus employee head count. I would expect that the capacity will come out someplace if we do in fact get new (used) widebody jets. I'm using the term 'capacity' incorrectly. More accurately 'pilot seats'. We will probably trend towards up gauging.

The company would love nothing more then to grow if they could do it profitably. Sustained growth is the single greatest driver of stock price. The forum seems to always feel that any route we enter we could make money on with no problems. Sadly that is not the case. This is just about the most competitive industry in the world. Management stands more then any other group to benefit from sustained growth. If they can get the airline growing and keep the growth they will be rich beyond their wildest expectations based on their stock option grants. Near term profits will move the stock price but only long term growth will sustain a rising stock.

gloopy 04-15-2013 10:10 AM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 1391535)
The company would love nothing more then to grow if they could do it profitably. Sustained growth is the single greatest driver of stock price. The forum seems to always feel that any route we enter we could make money on with no problems. Sadly that is not the case. This is just about the most competitive industry in the world. Management stands more then any other group to benefit from sustained growth. If they can get the airline growing and keep the growth they will be rich beyond their wildest expectations based on their stock option grants. Near term profits will move the stock price but only long term growth will sustain a rising stock.

All true in theory. But you can't discount or underestimate the "follow the herd" mentality from even the most profitable airlines. Look at many multi billion dollar RJ/Wholly Owned blunders. The peak stock buybacks. The hedge selloffs. The terminal overbuilding and market abandonment. All were bone headed decisions made during record profits by management teams that touted said profits as proof of their managerial abilities even though their plans were radically unsustainable in the long term.

The fact is, we are stuck in trading capacity for yields. It's whats "working" right now, and if history is any guide, they will stay on that path until well beyond the point of dimishing returns. You also can't look at every route as a separate "profit justification or pull it" scenario. If you do that, you let any competitor on earth run you out of any market you do completely on their terms. Stupid routes should be cut, but there are many times in this business where you have to out bleed the other guy. If you are not willing to do that for the almighty yield, your network will simply become a bottomless source for growth for someone else.

Columbia 04-15-2013 10:25 AM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 1391535)
The company would love nothing more then to grow if they could do it profitably. Sustained growth is the single greatest driver of stock price. The forum seems to always feel that any route we enter we could make money on with no problems. Sadly that is not the case. This is just about the most competitive industry in the world. Management stands more then any other group to benefit from sustained growth. If they can get the airline growing and keep the growth they will be rich beyond their wildest expectations based on their stock option grants. Near term profits will move the stock price but only long term growth will sustain a rising stock.

Strange. Stock price also rises with capacity reductions and increases in efficiencies. By the way, rich beyond their wildest dreams? If 7MM a year, not including options isn't wild, I'm not sure what would be.

sailingfun 04-15-2013 10:36 AM


Originally Posted by Columbia (Post 1391558)
Strange. Stock price also rises with capacity reductions and increases in efficiencies. By the way, rich beyond their wildest dreams? If 7MM a year, not including options isn't wild, I'm not sure what would be.

The stock price rise is essentially capped if you restrain capacity. You are getting confused with a industry that has showed long term losses. Wallstreet needs to see sustained profits. That will get the stock up to a point. We have seen that in the last year. To continue pushing the stock up you need growth. There are limits on how much you can push revenue up without growing. We are nearing those limits.

flyallnite 04-15-2013 10:39 AM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 1391535)
The company would love nothing more then to grow if they could do it profitably. Sustained growth is the single greatest driver of stock price. The forum seems to always feel that any route we enter we could make money on with no problems. Sadly that is not the case. This is just about the most competitive industry in the world. Management stands more then any other group to benefit from sustained growth. If they can get the airline growing and keep the growth they will be rich beyond their wildest expectations based on their stock option grants. Near term profits will move the stock price but only long term growth will sustain a rising stock.

I agree. And that is mgmt's stated goal- sustained investment grade stock. That's why I don't see us adding 15 A330's to Asia without trimming the operation at NRT- you can't just dump that much capacity into Asia without cinching up the capacity someplace else, or we'd already be doing that.

flyallnite 04-15-2013 10:49 AM


Originally Posted by Scoop (Post 1391507)
Fly,

I am actually a little more optimistic on this. These new aircraft (Boeing and Airbus already responded to the RFP) were explained to me as growth. The network guy for the Pacific already has long term plans for them.

I think the BOD is pondering this issue right now and we should have a decision NLT June. My money is on the Bus.


Scoop


To a network guy, that is growth. If it means our fleet size grows by that many new airplanes, without the loss of any airplanes or block hours, then I'll consider it growth too. It will be interesting and informative to see what if any new aircraft are ordered and where they will be deployed. Certainly Asia will be the market for them, but where and from which hub?

flyallnite 04-15-2013 11:35 AM

Hope our crews in Boston are OK... not very far from the hotel. Be careful out there, not sure what this is but definitely time to perk up and be aware of your surroundings.

DelDah Capt 04-15-2013 11:58 AM


Originally Posted by flyallnite (Post 1391629)
Hope our crews in Boston are OK... not very far from the hotel. Be careful out there, not sure what this is but definitely time to perk up and be aware of your surroundings.


I live up in the area and the Park Plaza is less than a half mile away straight up Boylston St. Hopefully any of our folks laying over don't like crowds and stayed away. One of the local channels aired some unedited video (and they're going to wish they hadn't because it was very graphic) showing people missing limbs and what appeared to be a couple deceased. No definitive word on the source of the explosions, though it would seem a monumental coincidence to have some natural accident occur at the Finish line on the day of the Marathon. They have Known Crewmember, but I would imagine that security at Logan Airport becomes very tight over the next couple days.

Timbo 04-15-2013 12:05 PM

CNN is now reporting the BOS police are saying 2 dead, 28 wounded, so far...

PilotFrog 04-15-2013 12:13 PM

Prayers for those in Boston.

On another note, I think RA would buy the -300ER if he only had to pay what every other foreign airline has paid in interest. I think there is a reason only one US airline has the 300ER (AA).


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