Originally Posted by kiteflyer (Post 1421049)

This just out!

Msp to be all rj by 2018. It's true.

Good job outsourcing your jobs delda.

Originally Posted by MrMustache (Post 1421037)

Wasn't this similar to the scenario that caused the 2010 hiring? And around the same time?

Originally Posted by scambo1 (Post 1421057)

This looks like the pre-757 drawdown plan put into action to me.

I do find it a little interesting that there are no 73N DTW or 717 DTW vacancies posted. The 73N DTW went with 5 fewer Capts last bid than they said they would have.

So tealeaf- wise, this looks like a drawdown the 757 bid and nothing much else.

Originally Posted by Free Bird (Post 1421032)

I thought the 88B cat was fat?

Once again going forward in reverse.

Originally Posted by tsquare (Post 1421058)

I don't think so Scambo. Take a look at reserves req/available for all those categories. The FOs have been really fat for a long time.

Originally Posted by gloopy (Post 1421034)

And 20 of the 100 ER FO displacements are out of NYC. The other 80 are other bases, which is very interesting.

Are we really 100 ER FO's fat, not just right now but for the fallout period during and after the next bid or two?

They could very well be creating a situation where 2014 new hires go heavily to the ER just like in 2007. Maybe that's what they want because of the new 1 year freeze?

If the purpose is to "drive new hires to new hire positions" then this AE, with hiring the better part of at least a year away, doesn't seem to pave the way for that at all. This was clearly 100% about desperately needing bodies in other categories, right now, because they realized they burned themselves by walking over pennies delaying hiring this year and thin bidding existing categories and now they're trying to put out the fire, or at least contain it a little bit.

If this were about setting up some new hire master plan this bid would't have dropped out of the blue, months before an already planned bid, immediately after the last bid, with no notice containing a massive purge from one single fleet type with training/conversions basically effective immediately.

The only other explanation I can see here is the continuation of the great ER purge of 2011-12 continuing. They might have even forced their own hand with no-hiring myopia to save almost nothing in the grand scheme of things and now find themselves in a pickle that could force them to park 75's faster than they otherwise would have had to. That could come in the form of accelerated retirements, or just normal retirements instead of extensions on some of the airframes.

The only scenario I see contrary to the above is a massive all positive AE later this year with no change in 75 retirements (to include some sticking around a little while longer as previously agreed was the consensus), but if that's the case who will fly them after this dump? New hires, of course. Or, even sillier, reinstatement pilots less than a year after getting dumped come back and their positions get filled by new hires. That would be even more of a comedy of errors than the first scenario.

We're either shrinking the ER/75 flying faster (or less slowly) than planned just a month or so ago, or planning is running on fumes, slow and low, trying to work with what they have when they don't have enough to work with. Either way doesn't look good, but it'll look less ungood if there's monster all vacancy AE's right after this one. How likely is that though?

Yeah, I know, the next bid is going to be the one.

Originally Posted by MrMustache (Post 1421054)

Where did this come from?