My suspicion is that we are parking them and something is going to replace them.

A) Delta hasn't said (and nothing has appeared) in the press about parking them. That's 1/4 of the 747 fleet. If we are focusing on capacity and yields you would think that it would come out pretty quick, and boost the stock price

B) We are still hiring a bunch - no word that we are going to hire less because of parking some planes that were not supposed to be parked so early.

C) Because of A, I think we'll see a Press Release with an order for new airplanes announced coinciding with parking the 747 fleet, "the first of which are being retired this Fall"

I think it's some sort of 777 to replace the 747. But not new because it basically takes 18-24 months from ordering to delivery of new Boeing airplanes for us. If we are starting a draw down now, that's too far away to lose all that capacity. We need a long range plane with lots of seats for some of our markets.

It may be part of another order that are 767 replacements too. The 350 is too new, Richard doesn't like new planes, unproven and all that. A330neo is my bet for the 767 replacement.

 

I'll be there. What are your resolutions? PM me if you want.

 

iaflyer,

Yes, Delta's plans for the 747 withdrawal have been reported in the press.

CAPA openly guessed that we'd be a partner in China Eastern's long haul ambitions and noted they are getting their 787's starting this fall.

In years past Delta has been reluctant to partner too extensively with a State Owned carrier like China Eastern. The Chinese have been transparent about their ambitions; they desire our know how, they desire our software tools, they desire our passengers and revenue. When you read their musings you wonder, "what is in it for Delta" ?

I think, "cheap network expansion" might be that answer.

There truly isn't a market where long haul flying is easy money right now. It seems there is money to be made in domestic markets, but long haul service suffers from both the State Owned and Subsidized competition as well as the cost and complexity of simply providing that kind of product.

China Eastern is lately sounding more rational than SkyMark. They are the World's 6 largest carrier with around 100m domestic passengers yearly. Delta could find synergies connecting to that market (and you would think a 747 would be just the thing for the kind of volume required).

Who knows ... there is obviously a near glut of capacity fighting it out over the Word's oceans. I do not like the idea of 10 330's replacing at least that many 747's and 767's, but, if it was our business, that is likely the decision we would make as well.

I think we flow something like 20% of Gol and AeroMexico's passengers across each others' networks. It is accretive to our flying and block hours.

 

I didn't even realize that they hadn't done a press release yet. That moves it to certainty that there is another move to be made in the coming weeks. I think your ideas on aircraft orders/purchases are spot on.

 

It was on Yahoo and other internet news places the day we got the info. Not sure if that counts as a press release, but it's not a big secret.

 

Anyone check out Crew a Resources Sept update? They explain what happened on AE and how the 777 and 330 are gonna pick up. So what happens to the old guys now on the whale? Go to training or bounce on their own?

 

You're correct.

Delta to Begin to Retire Boeing 747s | Frequent Business Traveler

 

Well, if you're to believe the company, it sounds like the 747s brawniness isn't as required as it once was in the pacific.

Supposedly if Delta owns a retired aircraft then they like to part it out, and 4 parked 747s would be a lot of parts to save money on. I think it's odd to do this after the interiors were done but you can part those out, no? So it'd make sense you'd improve your margins on some routes and reduce the cost of operating the 747s on the routes they still reign supreme.

So couldn't it just be that mathematically fewer 747s equals more profitability?

I argue we're a 767 airline. I think that's the nature of operating a global airline from the States where the 767 or now the A330/350/787 would make more money most of the time than a 748, 773 or 380.

 

Park 'em. I couldn't care less. It is not our decision what airplanes to buy, nor how to fly them... We need to get more money for the airplanes we DO fly. If we were paid properly for what we do, we could NEVER be held hostage for airplanes. To borrow a phrase, this is management's manifest destiny.

 

At one time, the 757/767 was 35% of the metal at DAL. We WERE a 767 airline. Soon the 737/MD88 will be the lion's share of DAL metal. Bigger. good plan.