20-25% might be a good number for "future-furlough proof".

TEN

1310 total furloughees to be exact..the shortest duration was about 5 months (6/03 to 12/03). I think the first opportunity to recall was around 07 with many bypassing for over 10 yrs (as we all know).

I think 1500 is a good safety number..but that's just cause we're hiring so many so fast that we'll have 500 in the training pipeline if DL ever has to make that decision to furlough again..(I hope not!). I remember they announced the first 400 about 2 weeks after 9/11.

Do we still have a "flow down" to the left seat of a CPZ 175 or did that die when DL sold them or when the last CPZ pilot "flows up"?

That "flow down" is the only real furlough protection in my humble opinion.

Flow down still exists and it's all seats not just left. Compass size should be around 600 pilots by years end

FTB, like a lot of what you said (as always), but you're FB roommate sounds like a bit of a douche.

My personal favorite


Attachment 1879

Those two footballs look deflated to me!

Is that why Saban wins so much?? :eek:

Is that guy behind Sherman, in the blue jacket and ball cap, the coach who sent in that pass play? Watch him close his eyes! :eek:

1310 is correct but your recall dates are slightly off. Besides the 250 FMII guys the last furlough group was Jan 03 and the recalls started in July 04. I know because I was in the very last group of guys furloughed.

Funny story (kind of). The first furlough recall group was July 04. I believe all those guys went into the 737-200. I bypassed until August correctly thinking I would busting my butt every July for the next 5-10 years.

In July there was an AE for 737-800s that left a lot of FO seats unfilled because most of the 737-200 were staying put thinking next month there would be 45 more guys being recalled and put in below them.

Well the August class went almost 100% to the 737-800s and instead of being at the bottom of the 737-200 list (had I went back in July) I instantly had about 40 guys below me on the 737-800. :)

You can bet a bunch of guys on the 737-200 were not happy.

Sometimes its better to be lucky than good. :D

Scoop

At least now we know what "roll tide" means. :cool:

I think CPZ reserves 10% of its positions for "lifers" to claim (and giving up the right to flow in the process) but I'm not sure how that works once the flows are completed. CPZ is growing, and I don't see why the flow down wouldn't apply to all CPZ positions regardless how big they get, but I'm not 100% sure how that works.

Flow downs keep up to 2 years of their DL longevity in the left seat of CPZ or 4 years in the right for CPZ pay table purposes.

It would be very expensive to dump and flush the entire CPZ list on a rolling basis up and down. The cost of doing so is one of the best defenses against a furlough.

Of course that doesn't seem very likely at this point. We are very "efficient" and productive compared to the last time the industry went in that direction, and we have a lot of retirements coming up starting in just a couple years.

At this point I'd say 1500 is absolutely safe (thermo nuclear world war or asteroids the size of Texas notwithstanding, etc) and pretty soon 1000 will be just as safe, with the likelyhood of even 1 being on the streets lower than at any time in the history of the industry. Still possible in some scenarios, but very unlikely.