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Originally Posted by satchip
(Post 729471)
I've been perusing the AE bid this morning and trying to figure out where I will land.....
I'm looking at some old data that NWA made availiable to us after every Award/AE and it looks like close to 25 DC-9 FO's have recall rights back to to 320. So, if I'm thinking right, I'm sure they will be going back, or at least trying to. As for the 63 -400 FO's that are getting displaced, Wile I think some will get displaced from the bottom, I think a lot of guys will AE or VD from the top of the list. I know a lot of those guys and one of the main reasons they are on the -400 (besides having a cake job) is that they HATE to commute. A lot of them commuter from the East coast and Florida, and they are VERY senior. About a year ago, I took a 757 A out of ATL who had bid 744 B because he had a two leg commute and only wanted to do it once a month. And he was not a junior 757 guy when I flew with him. Guys like him IMO are prime targets to bid for something closer to home. Or, they may stand pat and see where the -400 winds up. :D That's the beauty of this deal (not really), we have no idea who will do what. After this AE lot of us may wind up saying "wow, I didn't know I would have got that!" And lot of us may wind up saying, "Crap, I thought for sure I would have got that!" My crystal ball is very cloudy. :) New K |
Originally Posted by forgot to bid
(Post 729532)
Slow, care to throw in your $0.02?
Kyodo News December 16, 2009 Headline: Minister expected American to make more positive pitch for Japan Air Transport minister Seiji Maehara said Thursday he expected a more positive explanation from the executives of American Airlines Inc. on the merits of the U.S. carrier forging capital ties with cashstrapped Japan Airlines Corp. after their meeting a day earlier. ''American promoted itself to a certain extent, but it spent most of the time explaining why JAL cannot partner with Delta,'' Maehara told reporters after meeting with American's Chief Executive Officer Gerald Arpey. ''To be honest, I wish they had given us a slightly more forward-looking explanation.'' The government will carry out a closer analysis on the feasibility of a partnership between JAL and rival Delta Air Lines Inc. in view of whether the two companies would be granted antitrust immunity, he also said at a press conference. American has offered to invest up to $1.1 billion with global oneworld alliance members and U.S. private-equity firm TPG to block JAL's defection to the rival SkyTeam grouping led by Delta. American executives have argued vehemently that Delta and JAL would not be granted antitrust immunity since they would hold a share of over 60 percent in the Japan-U.S. market while Delta has said the partnership would not face any regulatory hurdles. The tug-of-war over JAL to tap into lucrative Asian routes has hit a new level of intensity after Japan and the United States just days ago struck a andmark ''open skies'' accord to liberalize air traffic, which will pave the way for airline companies in the two countries to work together more closely in scheduling and pricing. Japan's largest airline, headed for its fourth annual loss in five years, is seeking financial support from a government-backed corporate turnaround body, which can raise up to 1.6 trillion yen in government-guaranteed funds. ''Since JAL is seeking aid from a scheme built on the use of taxpayers' money, which partner it chooses will be major point that will make a huge difference to how the money is utilized,'' Maehara said. |
Originally Posted by forgot to bid
(Post 729532)
Slow, care to throw in your $0.02?
UPDATE 2-JAL likely to choose Delta over American -Asahi 6:31am EST * JAL likely to leave American and Oneworld for Delta-Asahi * JAL says not leaning either way, still in talks with both (Updates with background, analyst comments) TOKYO, Dec 18 (Reuters) - Japan Airlines Corp <9205.T> is likely to choose Delta Air Lines <DAL.N> as its overseas partner, ending its ties with American Airlines <AMR.N> and the Oneworld alliance, Japan's Asahi newspaper reported on Friday..... |
Originally Posted by newKnow
(Post 729547)
To me, it's kind of big that this is coming from a Japaneese newspaper. They are not like the ones here in the U.S. where they just make stuff up or take shots in the dark. I don't think they are the types to go out on a limb like that unless they really know something.....
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Originally Posted by DAL4EVER
(Post 729566)
Agreed. To me there are two scenarios here. 1. It's a controlled leak to a newspaper designed to get DAL and AMR panties a little tighter thereby garnering slightly more cash for a deal or 2. They are reporting a controlled leak based on fact and is perhaps why our stock is up 20% in the past two weeks. I doubt 20% has to do with SOC. Either way, I hope our first rights of refusal on Alaska are solid. If the JAL deal comes to fruition, AMR is going to be feeling like a pit bull being put in a rather small cage.
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Originally Posted by DAL4EVER
(Post 729566)
Agreed. To me there are two scenarios here. 1. It's a controlled leak to a newspaper designed to get DAL and AMR panties a little tighter thereby garnering slightly more cash for a deal or 2. They are reporting a controlled leak based on fact and is perhaps why our stock is up 20% in the past two weeks. I doubt 20% has to do with SOC. Either way, I hope our first rights of refusal on Alaska are solid. If the JAL deal comes to fruition, AMR is going to be feeling like a pit bull being put in a rather small cage.
My guess is that the Bn or so dollars means less than the jobs involved and internal political struggles to see growth at one, or another, politician's home turf. This isn't a traditional business deal any more than the shenanigans at AIG over the last year. Trying to handicap this using traditional business logic may be impossible for us. I don't think the story is much more than a open request for a rebuttal to keep the debate active in public. In the end I expect the Japanese politicians to act very conservatively and in keeping with tradition, leaning towards status quo with unfair tweaking to make the deal more advantageous to them. That's just they way they have acted in the past. Governments playing in business (including our own) can't be expected to act completely rationally. |
Originally Posted by DAL4EVER
(Post 729566)
....2. They are reporting a controlled leak based on fact and is perhaps why our stock is up 20% in the past two weeks. I doubt 20% has to do with SOC. Either way, I hope our first rights of refusal on Alaska are solid. If the JAL deal comes to fruition, AMR is going to be feeling like a pit bull being put in a rather small cage.
I wouldn't read too much into leaks on the JAL deal. Much of it is semi-public negotiating influenced by a wide variety of interests.;) The Japanese media is more than capable of acting just like American media.... |
Originally Posted by newKnow
(Post 729568)
So, we have a right of first refusal with Alaska? How many pilots do they have again? :rolleyes:
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Originally Posted by slowplay
(Post 729522)
Their business models are running out of places to profitably put airplanes.
They've moved away from primarily point to point service a long time ago. Play around on their website. Most of their city pairs I've ever looked up to consider buying for my personal use involve 2 or more legs and a plane change at what the rest of the industry calls a "hub". |
Originally Posted by Chente
(Post 729417)
You are correct unfortunately. Until we grow out West (Feed ourselves instead of letting Alaska do it to "save money") there is no way a junior guy will be able to get out there. Kind of funny but a lot of Captains I fly with for some reason think that the West is "Junior"????? After I tell them I want SLC they mention how it is very "Junior" and how I will be able to hold it right away. They must be looking at the wrong seniority list but the feeling I get is that a lot of guys out East, for some reason think the West is Junior. Doesn't change anything but thought I would throw out that mentality that I sense from some guys I fly with.
Basically, it's junior if you want to be on reserve, senior if you want good schedules, great if you live here, and an RJ nightmare if your going to commute from anywhere other than LAX. |
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