To make the 1.5X above 80 work, you need to get rid of the cap or it just doesn't make sense to do it. I think we will see DALPA push for a more restrictive cap in 2012 making the 1.5X above 80 even more worthless. Going to 1.5X WS pay and keeping the cap may be the way to go. If PBS builds you a 65 hour line and you WS a trip at 1.5X pay, you would be better off than having 1.5X pay above 80 and no cap. If they leave WS pay at 1X pay, then I would prefer no cap and 1.5X pay above 80, but I don't think DALPA will ever attempt to remove that cap.

Well a certian 747 captain started a rumor to see how long it would take it to get back to him. Pretty bull sh-t thing to do. The asolutely comment came straight from R.A.'s mouth on 747 coming back from nrt to atl in the last couple of weeks. I would say that he probably knows what is going on..

More from the sports bar: 1. JAL apointing a new board and is done. THey will select code share partner by the end of the week. Will be out to the public 14-15 Feb. If DAL gets the alliance it will be the end of the hotel, the flight kitchen and most of our whole operation in NRT. JAL will do all South flying. It will be a big loss of flying for us. It may be more beneficial to the company in terms of revenue but will be a huge loss in flying to us. If we don't get it also bad news in that Jal will make haneda the new International hub to off set the narita airport and make it insignificant.

We are getting routes out of haneda to HNL, SEA, and LAX wheather we get the alliance or not.

So it seems that this news is well who knows good or bad. I prefer that our pilots and airplanes do the flying and we control things. Probably not the best thing for the company.??????

over and out

It has been known/assumed that based on their restructuring plan we would drop some the the "Beach Destinations." Problem with some of the statements you made is this:
Unless DAL has alternate financing for the 2+ billion they used those route authorities as collateral for, we need to keep using them to maintain the stated value. It would be difficult for us to find other collateral for two billion of debt.

As for the 744 rumor, who cares, we will need jets to fly some of those routes either way .

As for net positive or negative. I still say positive. Long term the added revenue is good for the corporation, it just better not cost pilot jobs.

Like I have been stating, the JAL deal is the lesser of the two evils when it comes to the long term effects on the NRT operation.

Also if they wait until next week, it will guarantee that the JV language between the unions and companies is complete. (just a guess)

No dots, just staffing requirements.

32% for DALS

Thank you for the update. What you write makes sense; that we would give the Japanese the flying based in Japan on narrow body jets and they would transfer to us the LR and ULR flying from our bases and focus cities. That saves Japanese jobs and improves Japanese profitability. Management frankly does not care who flies the airplanes, as long as they get a cut of ticket sales. (as demonstrated by DCI outsourcing) D-ALPA also seems to be primarily focused on jobs pilots in their positions aspire to.

Numbers wise the 777-300 is about the perfect airplane for the mission. The really perfect jet is the 787-900, since a downturn would not sting nearly as bad with that airplane's reduced capacity and operational costs. I kind of expect the 787 to do to the 747-4 and 777 about what the 767 did to all the 747's that used to fly the Atlantic.

Frankly, this Japan deal is unfortunate. Wonder if we will get more "furlough protection" and stagnation from the JV. If so, they'll come out and state my fall prognostications were correct ... we'll see.

We have been shrinking at 5% to nearly 20% annually for at least the last 5 years. I thought post bankruptcy would be a reversal of that trend ... . Guess the entire industry has been contracting ... it would take some number crunching to see if we've shrunk less than everyone else during this time period. I think ceding a single job to AirTran, WN, or DCI is a mistake.

See ACL comments re: slots. Slots are slots. If we trade short runway for an equal number of long runway slots that is a gain in crews and flying. Or are short slots valued less than longer one and we are only maintaining the cost value of the slots not a numerical one? If it is neutral or positive on the slots do we not gain flying? LR and URL is doubled crewed vs. single on NB beach flying = more crews no? I think the status of the NRT hotel is the least of our concerns.

What is more relevant is what happens to these shifted routes once JAL is healthy and we no longer need the slots to finance debt?

In response to the first part, spot on. We need to maintain the collateral value of the "slots" as backing of more than two billion in debt. That is a brick wall for our company. I agree a net gain with equal or slightly less departures due to manning requirements.

In response to the bold section:
DAL wants the money not necessarily the operation of said route. So the devil is in the details. The benefit to us is they need to maintain some sort of presence in Asia, so I see much of the flying we get to stay with us. I would be surprised to see us agree to do the flying short term, and willfully give it back at a later date. The only reason to do that is that we would "own" the gained slots in to Haneda.

As we have debated on here and in person, there is going to be a "correction" to the markets etc. What the political element in DC does will determine the next cycle and how fast it happens.

With the above in context, even if they do the politically correct action, the recovery will be less than two years or so,. Deep dive and then a steady increase, at least I hope. Point is that once again the cycle will be too quick to break even on mass furloughs. I have been wrong before, and I may be wrong on this, but I do not see it happening.

I agree that this is a house of cards and all of it will collapse if we do not see sustained job growth in all sectors of this economy. Jobs=money=people willing to travel. Without it we need to stay flat in growth, which complicates other matters.

Based on the current Open Skies quota of 4(?) US based carrier HND slots that would have to be significantly restructured, which also raises the question of what impact does a DAL/JAL deal have on the Open Skies agreement?