Columbia

I read an article from a financial analyst a couple of weeks ago which said that his team has scrubbed the numbers and various bits of financial data and for the life of them, still can't find the $2BB in merger synergies.

Add that to today's CNN article about the frothy market and you have a case for guys to stay in their seats for as long as possible to make up for expected lower rates of return in retirement.

Stocks have nowhere to go but down - Oct. 11, 2010

Stocks have nowhere to go but down



By Shawn Tully, senior editor-at-largeOctober 11, 2010: 10:18 AM ET


FORTUNE -- Don't believe the bulls who predict a new era of rising stock prices. Sure, their arguments sound convincing: Confidence will surge following the arrival of a new, business-friendly Congress, the U.S. economy always rebounds strongly after a deep recession -- it's just taking longer this time. Or, it's the nature of the market to post big gains after a decade or more of poor returns.

Unfortunately, the basic math doesn't support the optimists' case. Put simply, the stock market is in a box that makes high future returns virtually impossible for people who invest in the S&P 500 or another index replicating the overall market. The reason is that corporate earnings are far outpacing the slow, grinding recovery. In fact, they're practically at a cyclical peak -- and possibly in a mini-bubble. At the same time, investors are paying an extremely big price for those already robust profits.

Today's premium multiples wouldn't be a problem if profits could grow at a rapid pace -- in theory at least, high price-to-earnings ratios are a signal that they're destined to do just that.

It won't happen this time, for a simple reason: When earnings are already at lofty levels, they typically stagnate or fall rather than grow. Hence, one route to rising equity prices is effectively blocked by the rise in profits that's already occurred, and the other is closed by high prices. Even if the economy improves dramatically, prices are far more likely to fall than rise. The rich rewards will go the patient contrarians who buy not at these prices, but after a major correction.

NuGuy

While I abhor everything that CNN has to say, this is close to what I believe.

We're in a dead cat bounce. When the real financial problems hit, oil will be $10/bbl.

Cash is King. Repeat it until your ears bleed.

Nu

Columbia

Unfortunately, I listened to you 1,000 DOW points ago. What's 9% of $350K?
Of course, which type of cash is important too. The dollar has been getting hammered as of late. Right now, cash is more of the court jester.

News Headlines

Dollar to Fall in 2010—Fed Goes Pro-Dollar in 2011: Lancz
Published: Monday, 11 Oct 2010 | 4:28 PM ET Text Size
By: JeeYeon Park
CNBC News Associate
The dollar continued to fall Monday, after declining more than 8 percent in the previous quarter. How will the weak dollar impact companies when they start to report earnings? Alan Lancz, president of Alan B. Lancz & Associates, shared his outlook.


"It’s a situation where everyone wants a weaker currency to drive their exports. And with the economies not doing as well as what many expected with this turnaround, that’s a way to fuel growth,” Lancz told CNBC.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if the dollar weakens by year-end as the Fed changes their chatter, [but] into 2011, they actually become pro-U.S. dollar to avoid speculation in commodities and the likes.”

Lancz said he also expects interest rates and inflation to start ticking up in 2011 and 2012.

“Less money will go into fixed income and that’s going to fuel the U.S. and international stocks to continue to move up,” he said. “But it is a precarious situation where if you get too much weakness, the whole valuation might be discounted, so investors have to be careful, especially through the year-end.”

acl65pilot

We will more than likely hit new highs before the cat realizes it does not have wings.

I am only getting in to the market quickly to take a quick gain and then selling. I personally am not holding anything for the long term. Of course DYODD.

NuGuy

Agree. I don't have any exposure to the market at all. Cash is king, but cash isn't necessarily the dollar.

You may see some short term gain if the R's take congress.

Personally, I don't gamble on politics, and I don't see "potential gains unrealized" in the market as a loss.

My savings are all about "is the number of donuts I can buy the same, or less?". If the answer is less, that's bad. If the number is the same, then I am happy.

IMHO, If you are depending on gambling in the market for income, then it's just that...gambling, and you are probably living outside your means. If you are managing your 401K (or other vehicle) to keep pace with inflation, then you are probably OK.

Like you said, DYODD....

Nu

80ktsClamp

Flew with one idiot a few months ago that kept repeating that the Dow would be down around 6000 by this time. ACL has flown with him previously as well.

Well, what now, Negative Nancy?

johnso29

Those articles are written everyday. Yawn.

nwaf16dude

I think I flew with his brother last month...Capt BlackCloud, as he will forever be known. Five straight days of why the world is about to end and how he got screwed by the Navy, Republic, NWA, and now Delta. I was ready to field-dress him by the end of the trip.

flyallnite

Now that the bid is out and the projected training and conversions posted, it's time to start looking forward to the next AE. In other words, never too early. The last I heard on this forum was January. Anyone else?

Razorback one

PBS question:
If I want "Award trip ****, else next" Where is the "else next" button?

TIA
R1