TOGA LK

If my memory serves me correctly, Boeing owns the paper on Air Tran's 717's. Boeing surely won't let SWA out of those leases unless another carrier agrees to take them in lieu; they would be a tough lease/purchase for Boeing to negotiate in this market. On the other hand, DAL may be able to secure a preferable rate or price on the 717's when considering the colossal failure of the 787 and the financial impact to DAL caused by the Boeing delays. In all reality, those 717's hold little value to the other US major airlines and the rest of the world has long gone the route of 737/320.

If what I have heard is true, the 717 shares commonality with the Saudi MD-90's which might make for a common fleet type and a fleet large enough with sustainable economics well into the future. The last results I heard of showed strong sustainability with the MD-88 at $3.50 gallon over ten-year leases on 320/737's.

It would be interesting if DAL would consider updating the existing or longer-term 88/90's to the newer cockpit configuration. I buddy of mine claims $2 mln a copy to convert an 88/older-90 to glass.

TOGA LK

Excellent points. It would be something if LUV sent the 717's away and then attempted another merger with Alaska. Some interesting changes going on over there, Alaska seems to be the hot ticket for someone.

Sink r8

Thanks, it fits in with your other post, above.

...I didn't know that LUV ever made a run at ALK (?). What do you think is happening over there to indicate an imminent change?

And since I'm asking questions, why does everyone assume LUV would be hesitant to operate the 717? It's said to have great economics, and since it's a smaller gauge, it's a good opportunity to compete with our RJ's, while offering a "large" airplane, yet not offering too much capacity on thin routes. I know that analysts love to talk about LUV's single-fleet miracle being the key to success, but they also buy into Delta's love for having all kinds of new airplanes to match demand with capacity post-merger.

I think what makes LUV work is great yield management, directly selling to the customer, and their relationship with their employees. Add a little luck, and a model that's allowed them to operate from a secondary airport to a secondary airport (until now), good management, and "pouf" you've got a great airline. "Great" doesn't mean afraid of experimenting. If the 717 could be such a valuable asset to us, there is a pretty good chance it might be valuable to them.

Bucking Bar

Anybody really think with the holes in our Section 1 and all the talk about signing up providers for additional outsourced flying that 117 seat jets are coming to mainline?

I would be very surprised.

acl65pilot

Bar, I would say that too until I announced otherwise. Think about it.

TOGA LK

From my understanding Horizon was being rebranded as a connection carrier, losing their jets and other feed operators would step in with CRJ's. Just seems like a strange move for an airline with a niche market and a desire to stand alone. Just a hunch, but it seems like Alaska wants the RJ's off their books; whether that desire is internal or external remains to be determined.

Alaska would bring a stronger west coast presence, Hawaiian, Mexico and Canadian flying to LUV. At the same time this would pull the rug out from under AA and DAL on the west coast. After LUV targeted DAL in ATL such a move would only make sense, especially when considering the point to point flying Alaska performs.

I'm not so sure if the purchase of Air Tran wasn't simply to take another LCC off the map and better align LUV against the big 3. The next five years should be some of the most interesting in history.

I'm probably way off.

forgot to bid

Alright let me see if for arguments sake I can build a case for SWA offloading the 717 and sending them towards DAL.

Background

• The AirTran 717s. There 'will be' 88 of them. They seat 117 passengers (12/105).
  
• SWA has 733s, 735s and 737-700s. The 733 and 700 seat 137 passengers with 32-33" seat pitch. The AAI 737 seats 137 in a two class configuration stealing some seat pitch from the economy and giving it to first. It can be assumed however all of AAI's 737s will be 137 seaters in a single configuration and 735s will stay at 122.
  
• The 717 in a single class configuration using SWA normal seat pitch would be around 23 rows and 115 seats. Less than AAI's current FTB leg crushing seat pitch because of the increased seat pitch SWA uses. That's my guess. FWIW, Boeing says 717-200 seats 106 in two class and 117 in single class seating and 134 on the type data certificate in the Lord help us in the elf configuration.
  
• Now SWA will have 88 115-seat 717s, 25 122-seat 735s, 173 137-seat 733s and 349 137-seat 737-700s. Plus they have outstanding orders for 113 more 737-700s and options for 37 more. And 20 175-seat 738s on the way.
  
• SWA has announced they'll spend $40 million to bring "most" of the 733 classics up to a 737NG cockpit adding in GPS and RNP capabilities. Thus, an investment is being made in their 733s.

Thoughts

• AAI was telling their employees in 2006 that their 737-700s best the 717 not only in CASM but in block hour costs. I'm sure Bar knows where on the BTS records you can see the two but from a little research I've found the block hour and total trip costs are actually slightly in the 717s favor but of course the CASM is not. But if AAI was telling their employees the 737-700 was better then it's possible for AAI it absolutely is. So to me that is a strike 1 against AAI keeping the 717.
  
• Now if you look at the 717 in comparison to the 735 its only 5% smaller than the 735 and 16% smaller than the 733/737. So to me that's not a huge difference as in what is being marketed as the airplane for our thin routes. That's like saying we use the 150 seat MD88 on thin routes compared to the 160 seat MD90. However, for Delta the let's say 117 seat configuration of the 717 is about 23% smaller than the 150-seat MD88 configuration and closer to the 125 seat DC-9-50. Meaning there is a marketable difference, as in a reason to have it, for market right sizing purposes. Plus it would have fleet commonality with our 159 and quickly growing MD88/90 fleet and that doesn't include the DC95 which pushes that up to 193 aircraft. Heck, excluding the 9 if we added all 109 flyable MD90 to the fleet of MD88s we'd have 240 Douglas jets, add in AAI and Midwest 717s and you've got a fleet of 350+ kick ass Douglas jets (amen brother Newk and the Fly DC Jets choir?) and nearly all of them dirt cheap to acquire. To me that's a strike against SWA keeping the 717s as they know they have, in their minds, suckers to take them. Strike 2.
  
• SWA has a lot of 737s and 738s on order. Assuming all our chiding of SWA pilots is right and growth has stagnated and if there are long term plans in place to upgrade the 733s, then there is enough replacement aircraft on order to replace the entire 717 fleet. Strike 3.
  
• By returning the 717s to the lessor, Boeing, in exchange for something Boeing wants, 737 orders, and a willing disgruntled customer, Delta, there may be an opportunity for Delta to find a good deal in the 717 leases or possibly even outright acquisition. Strike 5, more to come.
  
• Think that DAL getting 717s is far fetched? From January 17, 2011: Mr Anderson also told Mr McAdoo that he was interested in used aircraft. The analyst mentioned there were still ex-Mexicana aircraft going wanting. In addition, the 717, he said, is similar to the MD-90 fleet Delta is building. While Southwest said it intends to operate the 717s in AirTran’s fleet, they could ultimately be an option should the Dallas-based carrier change its mind. Strike 6.
  
• SWA pilots say they're hearing the 717s are going to DAL. AAI pilots say not so. DAL management types are talking about SWA wanting to get rid of the 717s and allowing us to get those "POS's". SWA has not said anything really definitive about its plans for the 717 other than they're staying. So that means they're probably going. Strike 7 imho.
  
• If we go the Asian power play route we might merge with Hawaiian. That'd give us 15 more 717s on top of the possible 110+ AAI/Midwest 717s. Strike 8ish.
• For NWA DC9 drivers who transition to the 717/MD88/MD90/Saudi MD90 yet to be named category, they'd get to say they'd flown every dad gum version of the best airliner ever made.
  

That's my $.02.

[imagine picture of pam beasley saluting posted here, couldn't find that pic and won't try too hard to find it... 80?]

acl65pilot

Well FtB, that is some good analysis.

forgot to bid

You must be either on the other side of the world or on the west coast tonight, eh?

forgot to bid

The thing I forgot to mention is say you have a 339 aircraft fleet of DAL 88s, 90s, used 90s, Saudi 90s, AAI 717s and Midwest 717s you'd have 65% of the fleet under 14 years old and half of those under 10. All of them acquired for a fraction of their original cost or especially a fraction of a new 737/320z The 88s would have the highest age but even then its an average of 20 years from a family of jets whose first generation proved 40+ was viable without hardly any updates much less the cockpit upgrade the board may approve.