Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
02-10-2011 | 09:33 PM
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From: Light Chop
Alright let me see if for arguments sake I can build a case for SWA offloading the 717 and sending them towards DAL.
Background
Thoughts
That's my $.02.
[imagine picture of pam beasley saluting posted here, couldn't find that pic and won't try too hard to find it... 80?]
Background
- The AirTran 717s. There 'will be' 88 of them. They seat 117 passengers (12/105).
- SWA has 733s, 735s and 737-700s. The 733 and 700 seat 137 passengers with 32-33" seat pitch. The AAI 737 seats 137 in a two class configuration stealing some seat pitch from the economy and giving it to first. It can be assumed however all of AAI's 737s will be 137 seaters in a single configuration and 735s will stay at 122.
- The 717 in a single class configuration using SWA normal seat pitch would be around 23 rows and 115 seats. Less than AAI's current FTB leg crushing seat pitch because of the increased seat pitch SWA uses. That's my guess. FWIW, Boeing says 717-200 seats 106 in two class and 117 in single class seating and 134 on the type data certificate in the Lord help us in the elf configuration.
- Now SWA will have 88 115-seat 717s, 25 122-seat 735s, 173 137-seat 733s and 349 137-seat 737-700s. Plus they have outstanding orders for 113 more 737-700s and options for 37 more. And 20 175-seat 738s on the way.
- SWA has announced they'll spend $40 million to bring "most" of the 733 classics up to a 737NG cockpit adding in GPS and RNP capabilities. Thus, an investment is being made in their 733s.
Thoughts
- AAI was telling their employees in 2006 that their 737-700s best the 717 not only in CASM but in block hour costs. I'm sure Bar knows where on the BTS records you can see the two but from a little research I've found the block hour and total trip costs are actually slightly in the 717s favor but of course the CASM is not. But if AAI was telling their employees the 737-700 was better then it's possible for AAI it absolutely is. So to me that is a strike 1 against AAI keeping the 717.
- Now if you look at the 717 in comparison to the 735 its only 5% smaller than the 735 and 16% smaller than the 733/737. So to me that's not a huge difference as in what is being marketed as the airplane for our thin routes. That's like saying we use the 150 seat MD88 on thin routes compared to the 160 seat MD90. However, for Delta the let's say 117 seat configuration of the 717 is about 23% smaller than the 150-seat MD88 configuration and closer to the 125 seat DC-9-50. Meaning there is a marketable difference, as in a reason to have it, for market right sizing purposes. Plus it would have fleet commonality with our 159 and quickly growing MD88/90 fleet and that doesn't include the DC95 which pushes that up to 193 aircraft. Heck, excluding the 9 if we added all 109 flyable MD90 to the fleet of MD88s we'd have 240 Douglas jets, add in AAI and Midwest 717s and you've got a fleet of 350+ kick ass Douglas jets (amen brother Newk and the Fly DC Jets choir?) and nearly all of them dirt cheap to acquire. To me that's a strike against SWA keeping the 717s as they know they have, in their minds, suckers to take them. Strike 2.
- SWA has a lot of 737s and 738s on order. Assuming all our chiding of SWA pilots is right and growth has stagnated and if there are long term plans in place to upgrade the 733s, then there is enough replacement aircraft on order to replace the entire 717 fleet. Strike 3.
- By returning the 717s to the lessor, Boeing, in exchange for something Boeing wants, 737 orders, and a willing disgruntled customer, Delta, there may be an opportunity for Delta to find a good deal in the 717 leases or possibly even outright acquisition. Strike 5, more to come.
- Think that DAL getting 717s is far fetched? From January 17, 2011: Mr Anderson also told Mr McAdoo that he was interested in used aircraft. The analyst mentioned there were still ex-Mexicana aircraft going wanting. In addition, the 717, he said, is similar to the MD-90 fleet Delta is building. While Southwest said it intends to operate the 717s in AirTran’s fleet, they could ultimately be an option should the Dallas-based carrier change its mind. Strike 6.
- SWA pilots say they're hearing the 717s are going to DAL. AAI pilots say not so. DAL management types are talking about SWA wanting to get rid of the 717s and allowing us to get those "POS's". SWA has not said anything really definitive about its plans for the 717 other than they're staying. So that means they're probably going. Strike 7 imho.
- If we go the Asian power play route we might merge with Hawaiian. That'd give us 15 more 717s on top of the possible 110+ AAI/Midwest 717s. Strike 8ish.
- For NWA DC9 drivers who transition to the 717/MD88/MD90/Saudi MD90 yet to be named category, they'd get to say they'd flown every dad gum version of the best airliner ever made.
That's my $.02.
[imagine picture of pam beasley saluting posted here, couldn't find that pic and won't try too hard to find it... 80?]
Last edited by forgot to bid; 02-10-2011 at 09:47 PM.
02-10-2011 | 09:45 PM
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From: A-320A
Well FtB, that is some good analysis.
02-10-2011 | 09:48 PM
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From: Light Chop
02-10-2011 | 10:00 PM
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From: Light Chop
The thing I forgot to mention is say you have a 339 aircraft fleet of DAL 88s, 90s, used 90s, Saudi 90s, AAI 717s and Midwest 717s you'd have 65% of the fleet under 14 years old and half of those under 10. All of them acquired for a fraction of their original cost or especially a fraction of a new 737/320z The 88s would have the highest age but even then its an average of 20 years from a family of jets whose first generation proved 40+ was viable without hardly any updates much less the cockpit upgrade the board may approve.
02-10-2011 | 11:15 PM
Inventory survival kit ..
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From: Seeking no jacket required rotations
02-10-2011 | 11:19 PM
Inventory survival kit ..
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From: Seeking no jacket required rotations
02-10-2011 | 11:22 PM
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From: Seeking no jacket required rotations
I used to joke that AA would change their paint job from Luxuryliner to Swingliner everytime there was a merger rumor involving AA.
For those that dont get the joke:
Swingline
02-11-2011 | 03:35 AM
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From: A-320A
02-11-2011 | 03:37 AM
Happy to be here
Joined: Jun 2006
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From: A-320A
From my understanding Horizon was being rebranded as a connection carrier, losing their jets and other feed operators would step in with CRJ's. Just seems like a strange move for an airline with a niche market and a desire to stand alone. Just a hunch, but it seems like Alaska wants the RJ's off their books; whether that desire is internal or external remains to be determined.
Alaska would bring a stronger west coast presence, Hawaiian, Mexico and Canadian flying to LUV. At the same time this would pull the rug out from under AA and DAL on the west coast. After LUV targeted DAL in ATL such a move would only make sense, especially when considering the point to point flying Alaska performs.
I'm not so sure if the purchase of Air Tran wasn't simply to take another LCC off the map and better align LUV against the big 3. The next five years should be some of the most interesting in history.
I'm probably way off.
Alaska would bring a stronger west coast presence, Hawaiian, Mexico and Canadian flying to LUV. At the same time this would pull the rug out from under AA and DAL on the west coast. After LUV targeted DAL in ATL such a move would only make sense, especially when considering the point to point flying Alaska performs.
I'm not so sure if the purchase of Air Tran wasn't simply to take another LCC off the map and better align LUV against the big 3. The next five years should be some of the most interesting in history.
I'm probably way off.
02-11-2011 | 04:11 AM
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Quick question. My wife is on a full fare coach ticket on one of our flights today which shows FC wide open. Is there any legal way to list her for FC? Do you think an agent would do it at the gate if she casually mentions her husband is a pilot?
Thanks
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