Does anyone else here think Delta is going to furlough or is Buckingbar in lone company?

 

We must be getting close to contact negotiations!!!!!! Keep an eye on "crafty" financial data, trends and futures. I am willing to bet they do not look good, what a coincidence.

TEN

 

I don't even think it.

What I wrote is how to read the movement in staffing, if that's what we see happen on this next AE.

 

American Airlines’ work force is said to rank among the lowest in the industry in terms of productivity and according to management estimates, the airline is at $800 million-a-year disadvantage to competitors on labor costs (See AMR Faces Union Stalemate in Bid for $800 Million Labor Savings).

While competitors have negotiated better deals with the unions through bankruptcy, American continues to honor its expensive labor agreements. The airline has been trying to negotiate new agreements with its union for years now, but the contract negotiations have stalled badly. While labor costs account for about 31% of all operating costs at American, they stand at around 22-23% for Delta and United Continental.

Stole the above from Elvis on another thread. Isn't our restoration quest, I think FTB said it's about 750m/yr, about the same as what AMR is behind in the industry? I think we are in a different place than AMR, and I don't think 800m/yr would put us at 31% labor costs. It just struck me, because this could be bad for us going forward.

 

If American declares, it WILL be bad for us.

What are US Air's pilot costs? Half of ours', or two thirds?

We need our peers to hold up their end of the house we're trying to lift.

 

We are hugely profitable this year. Bag fees are through the roof. There are MD90s getting fitted for new gallies as we speak. The DC9s may be going away, but they will be replaced by those MD90s and more in total. The reason hours are down this Fall is because most of our widebodies on the NW side are getting modifications themselves. Throw in new fatigue rules that will come someday soon, and I doubt it, along with retirements.

 

Don't they have a snap back that is due for pre-Bk wages, and aren't they going to court to enforce that? I think UAL's contract will be more important, and they are a lot more profitable than we are. They made over $550 million in Q2.

 

I thought the last conference call looked Great. Future outlooks may look dire, but fuel surcharges and bag fees are still in effect.

 

I don't know, 45% of the near 700 pilots who come after the first post 9/11 NWA pilot are on something larg... I mean higher paying than the 88/90/9. And that's throwing the 34 pilots on NBC out btw.

And many of those were put into those airplanes after the June AE including the plug who is now 7ER. So they're moving people or allowing them into those categories.

I think they don't want to furlough because of retirements, before it was the merger and now it's retirements and the cheapest place to put them is the 88. So I think when you look at the 88 and 9 you see the airline is overstaffed.

But not overstaffed on the 777. Something just makes me think trip parking is a part of that, people don't seem to understand when you go over ALV you reduce the required number of pilots. Unless I'm missing something.

 

The number I came up with were if you put our DC9 rates equal to SWA rates (I was assuming that SWA would keep the 717s at same pay and on property for that matter) and adjusted the rest of the fleet according to the % difference now. So adjusted for the difference in min reserve pay and by an average September ALV the difference was about $720M. After benefits and medical I assume that number could approach $935M based on 30% above flight pay taxes and 401ks and other mumbojumbo and $6K/pilot for medical).

All assumptions based only on the 10,700ish pilots flying the line and not NBC or off line.

You'd basically take A's current flight pay average of $169K/yr and FO's $118k/yr and knock them up to $245k and $178k respectively.

So a $76K/$60K pay raise all things being equal and most importantly accurate .