It would create a mess with the Compass flow thru, too. Wouldn't it?

How "fat" is the North Side and Post-SOC would the new work rules for the Northies absorb enough to reduce the need to furlough?

Man I know it's early but maybe a beer would help...... Oil is not going to be a buck fifty a barrel and I don't see a depression happening. While the government is spending more than it is taking in this has been happening for years. The value of our dollar will/is going down but again this is do to our printing more $$ to stimulate the economy.

Interest rates will rise in time (they are now at 30 year lows so everyone knows this is going to happen sooner or later). The dollar will get pushed back up by the fed once this recession eases.

Okay,
Here is my two cents and its just an observation.

Both sides of the fence have too many people on widebody aircraft right now because of the cuts in international capacity. We have a inverse pyramind for a staffing model if you will. The situation is very fluid but I would surmise that another dispalcement bid will be coming out right after the final numbers on the PIRP are revealed. If enough people do not take the PIRP then the extent of the displacement will be extensive as the company readjusts the fleet to meet demand.

Both narrow body fleets are flying pretty much at maximum line values and have been for the past six months. Even with the last dispalcement the flying has not diminished. We can all speculate about furloughs but one thing is certain. The amount of time and money required by management to dispense with furloughs is enormous.

While I am not a koolaid drinker I do believe that the aggressiveness of our managment to be in a postion of advantage and capitalize on the next upswing in our cyclical business at a very fast pace is the sole reason we have not seen a furlough of pilots yet.

It is going to become uncomfortable for a lot of us with being pushed down to other aircraft, being on reserve for infinity, but we may still be getting a check that says Delta Air Lines on it. I am still optimistic that the "f" word is not fully in play yet. Trying to stay positive and hoping everyone else does also.

FWIW: conference call for OH on the 15th. Its expected to announce additional furloughs in September. It also has been rumored that there may be up to a 25% reduction in block hours.

Good luck to you guys.

TC

The North side isnt going to be that "fat", its the S side thats "fat" because they were ramping up for the big international expansion which is now being pulled back hence the dilemma. If they waited till SOC to make cuts than we're talking 2010 being a starting point. The company believes that it needs a minimum of 18-24 months to break even on furloughs so that puts that out to about 2012. I dont think the company even thinks it will take that long to recover. Now with that said, we are going to be fat no doubt about it. The question is going to be whether or not they would rather offer multiple PIRPs, leaves, etc as opposed to layoffs or not. This is going to get even more interesting for sure.

Hope for the best and plan for the worst!!

I agree with you completely. We'll see

Good way to look at it. If they did furlough, I don't think it would be pre SOC. Waaaay to messy, and risks breaking the smooth transistion made thus far. I realize it was the arbitrators decision but I still think it could cause bad blood. Also, I truly believe the new DAL is trying to avoid all the negative press they can. Layoffs/furloughs is bad press. I know there will eventually be a point where they will have to furlough, the question is where exactly is that point. I think they will wait until SOC, and then 2Q 2010. If they still forecast an extensive downturn, then they will probably drop the F-bomb. We're just too fat on the WB's.

nevermind......................................... .................................................. ....................

Wait, you mean the last LOA we signed isn't gonna save our bacon???:)

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