There is a strategy made famous by Mohammad Ali and named by his publicist called “Rope-A-Dope”. There are variations of the strategy however the important elements are that one goes fully on the defensive showing just enough fight to keep the ref from calling a TKO. Then when the attacker tires from seemingly landing so many punches and feels ahead they will let their guard down and then a devastating counter-attack is launched by the not so helpless defender. I would love to think we are the players although too many things point to us being played. It is a great strategy but it doesn’t translate well to other sports. For example letting the other team score 8 touchdowns in the hope they will tire themselves out running up and down the field then celebrating in the end zone is probably not in any football coach’s playbook.

There is a great website if you want a good laugh, Home of Demotivators® - The World's Best Demotivational Posters. They took on the motivational tchotchke hawker Successories by flipping their gig, flipping them the bird in the process.

Consistency-- It's only a virtue if you're not a screw-up.

Consulting-- If you're not a part of the solution, there's good money to be made in prolonging the problem.

Government-- If you think the problems we create are bad, just wait until you see our solutions

Tradition-- Just because you've always done it that way doesn't mean it's not incredibly stupid.

So what do these humorous quips have to do with anything? Let’s start with the second quote above and apply it to everyone’s favorite thing that hasn’t been negotiated yet-- sick leave. We were told we opened for no change in sick leave meaning that is supposedly what we hoped for, no change. It is no secret that the company had “needs” regarding sick leave. They have been telegraphing that for months. They even released damning data to the union with their evidence of these terrible sick leave criminals. Evidently the company is powerless to stop these thieves. All these obvious crimes and no one can stop them. Oh the humanity!

But what if the company has the goods and could fire or discipline these individuals any time they want? Why would they just let them slide? If these pilots are that bad and they aren’t punished won't they keep doing the same thing? Maybe they will get even more blatant, like 4 years worth of JV imbalance. So again why would the company just sit on their hands? Well that is because prolonging the problem yields a bonanza at the negotiating table that’s why. There are people willing to trade away their sick leave in order to “fix” the problem and “get” those bad pilots when it is only a small handful.

We are employing the C2012 playbook. The survey taken last year was used in some fashion yet it will be kept secret. The union will not tell us what they opened for, it is all conceptual and limited. The company opener is also being kept confidential. So stay informed sports fans. I have been repeatedly assured the NC is under close control so if any of the leaked coal in the Christmas stockings is true then the reps can’t claim things showed up that they didn’t know about.

So why are we negotiating like the house is on fire? Didn’t you hear? Richard hates Apple, stuck it to Boeing and wants an early contract. What evidence do we have that Richard wants an early contract? He exchanged secret, conceptual openers with the union early. OK. Did he drive an armored car over to the first day’s session? Being available to negotiate is one thing but actually showing up with the dough is totally different. I can show up at the Benz dealership before it opens and declare to the salesman unlocking the door I am really serious about driving home in a new SL today. I can tell him I even brought cash to get a quick deal and I will have their attention. If it turns out I only showed up with 25K and expect to get a new sports car for that price they will either show me the door or try to sell me something else. In either case the salesman is not going to make concessions on accessories, options, financing, and service first if I have no intention of being anywhere close to his list price. Are they so committed to negotiating that they have to cede ground every time they talk? Once again what evidence do we have that the company is serious other than the timing, the words and the full court press?

So sick leave is supposedly a problem for them even though they got the language they wanted in 2012. Profit Sharing is also supposedly a problem but who was the knucklehead who got generous with it for all the other employees? What about staffing? Who forgot to tell Delta that pilots have a birthday each year just like normal humans? Who has been closing bases and moving airplanes around? I simply don’t understand why we are negotiating to fix Delta’s self-induced problems first without addressing our biggest ones a decade old. Delta gave us the cold shoulder for 4 years on the AF/KLM imbalance. So I am tallying the company’s long list of problem areas and I unfortunately see it in the light of someone used to getting their way and rewarded every time they complain. They have a problem with sick leave but they can punish the offenders. They have a problem with staffing yet they could have hired more pilots sooner. They have a problem with the training pipeline yet they closed a couple of bases and an entire training facility. They have a problem with Profit Sharing yet they can reduce the company outlay by 70% with the stroke of a pen. They have a problem with upgrades yet the retirements that were postponed for 5 years have been staring them in the face. They have a problem with airplanes yet they are the ones that bought the most diverse fleet since Iberian in the 1990s. They have a problem with RJ lift yet they can bring a thousand of them to mainline any time they choose.

The themes from the home team friendly announcer have been very positive. We have 7 consecutive “raises”, your W-2 is higher than in 2004, and look at all the upgrades! The number 20% increase in value has been touted and no doubt is accurate but look at the scoreboard. That 20% came when we were already down by as much as 5 times that. 20% spread out over 3 years without factoring in inflation, higher medical costs and higher taxes doesn’t equate to much of an increase in buying power. How much harder did you have to work to get that? That running back has averaged 5 yards a carry in the second half. What a stud. Yes but you are down by 6 touchdowns, the defenders are laying back and the clock is running out on your career.

Yes my W-2 is higher than in 2004. We took a huge pay cut in November 2004 if you want to be totally honest. We also had a DB retirement and a fully funded disability program. I got a 5% bump in my 2014 W-2 when the Feb 14, 2015 PS was paid early. I moved up one airplane since 2004. I definitely worked more than in 2004 and 11 years of inflation have taken their toll in my buying power. So YES I made more W-2 but have less spending power making less per hour on a higher paying airplane than I was being paid at the beginning of 2004.

The upgrades are positive and so is the hiring but let’s put those in perspective. Delta announced the merger in April 2008. As of yesterday the plug is #12,811 which is great news. The only problem is the plug from the merger was #12,554 on one combined list I have so in 7 years there are 257 more pilots on the seniority list at the new Delta Air Lines. For perspective the old plug is now #11997 so the movement is fueled more by fleet changes and attrition (1557 pilots gone from 2008) than hiring. Again I hope they keep hiring however this is not exactly earth shattering growth. You only feel better because someone stopped punching you.

So if you are the company how do you get what you want on the cheap when there is money oozing out of every orifice? First you keep a lid on everything you offered because if you go low and act poor after shelling out $6 Billion throwing a party for the investors all hell will break loose. Check. Then you repeat what has worked since 2004, you add urgency and secrecy to the negotiations. Something big is coming. This deal is only available now. Things might change. Pressure and uncertainty work. The reps have been fed confidential information in order to manipulate them IMO. If you will tell the second biggest lie after “It’s your baby” with “I am not here to merge with NW” is there anything you won’t say to get what you want? The best disinformation campaigns feed good data to work an agent into thinking everything they are getting is true and then when it is time to play them you switch it up. Besides, the old “our business plan changed” excuse is always a great fallback if you can’t scare up a Black Swan on cue.

We have been negotiating like demons 3 times a week for 2 months in order for what? Are they getting valuable things from the company or is it theatre? Are built in “wins” being manufactured in the form of 1st downs on 4th and 1 when we are still 6 touchdowns behind? “You should have seen what the company wanted” is always followed in my mind by “why didn’t you show us 2 months ago if it is that important?” That form of kicking dirt on the turd only covers up part of the smell. The problem is by working so hard negotiating I am hearing stories of people already tired of the process. They are being worn down. Rope-A-Dope. We are over 6 months early in the contract game. Rush if it is a once in a lifetime deal but keep in mind this is Round 1 in the fight. If you can knock him out go for it but don’t expend 15 rounds worth of energy and not put him down on the mat out cold. Fred said this is our version of the company taking advantage of us in Chapter 11. How much better of an environment do we need before we make historic gains?

I purposely made this a novel rather than a one-liner because airline contract negotiations are a marathon not a sprint. C2015 started being negotiated by the company the day we signed up for C2012 and if you don’t believe that look no further than the Virgin JV, Narita LOA and FAR 117 talks. I fully expect one particular person who asked me to be brief to have lip cramps from reading all this, but that is their problem. I will concede C2K is long gone but that will never make me forget about it or our treatment before and during bankruptcy. We ceded territory along the way to get to this point in 2015 to make significant gains not modest gains offset by modifications and adjustments to pay for them. If the company REALLY wants a deal now they can pay the freight charge. There is a LOT of baggage we have been hefting around for over a decade for them. If a TA comes out sooner rather than later it will be obvious if the company was being truthful about paying extra for an early deal or just wanting an early deal on the cheap and hoping we have collective amnesia and fall for the same manufactured urgency. I truly hope the reps aren’t getting tired already. Historic may take 14 more rounds. You will know Historic when you see it. It is far too early in the game to send Reasonable offset by Quids and Concerns to the membership.

 

Good questions that many other folks wonder about as well.

As somebody else stated, you cracked part of the code with your last sentence.

 

What if the 100 seater paid the same as the 80?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

With the NWA group, 59-41 in favor with 94% eligible voting.

 

Oh hell no.

 

The 110 seater doesn't.

In any case breathing even more life into DCI and giving them even more DC-9-10 sized "RJ's" to perpetually hold over our head by farming out to the lowest bidder would negatively effect the "hundred seater" and serve only to pull down everything else with it, especially in the next down cycle. And there will be a next down cycle.

And it still wouldn't fully protect from some or all of them being used eventually for replacement anyway. Look how insufficient the block hour ration was the last time. No where remotely close to protecting us from downsizing.

I reject the logic loop sophistry of the "Indecent Proposal" argument in its entirety, and I think even entertaining it severely weakens us collectively. Some things just shouldn't be for sale.

 

I wish I had been allowed on chit chat.

 

The company wants it done asap this time, for the same reason they wanted C2012 done early, they want to rush us into making concessions and trade more PS for pay, before the NEXT BIG EARNINGS REPORTS come out.

Oh, and you'll never see those two 3% raises....oh wait.

 

So, if the rumors are true, in addition to the increased in ADG from the 117 negotiations, you'll also get a payrate increase in 2015. It seems that those who guessed that the 2012 pay rates wouldn't stand to the end of the contract could in fact be correct.

 

You're still not in? ****?