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Old 06-13-2015 | 07:41 PM
  #8621  
Gets Weekends Off
 
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From: Downward-Facing Dog Pose
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Originally Posted by Carl Spackler

Even though you may be right, the market can be irrational longer than you can keep funding your short position. In all things, moderation.

Carl

This is exactly, painfully, right. But ya gotta admit, the present bull is getting very long in the tooth indeed.
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Old 06-13-2015 | 07:45 PM
  #8622  
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Runs with scissors
 
Joined: Dec 2009
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From: Going to hell in a bucket, but enjoying the ride .
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Originally Posted by Carl Spackler
I know this won't go over well, but no matter what facts you think you have, the odds of your prediction of the market's direction is exactly 50/50. I don't care who you are, it's 50/50.

There's the famous story of the guy who shorted collateralized debt obligations in 2007 because he was sure the housing market would collapse. He was right and made 2 billion. He then shorted bonds because he was sure rates couldn't go lower since they were near zero. He was wrong and lost 2.1 billion.

Even though you may be right, the market can be irrational longer than you can keep funding your short position. In all things, moderation.

Carl
You know the old saying, Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

If you say the market is going to crash every day for 10 years, and then it finally does, were you right or just lucky?

I've got a prediction: There is NFW this TA is going to pass, unless it does.
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Old 06-13-2015 | 07:47 PM
  #8623  
forgot to bid's Avatar
veut gagner à la loterie
 
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From: Light Chop
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I'll make a prediction timbo. If this TA passes or fails, we'll talk about it here.
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Old 06-13-2015 | 07:51 PM
  #8624  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined: Jun 2015
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From: CA
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Originally Posted by 80ktsClamp
To be clear, unlike what slowplay stated, the LCA trip pull thing is NOT industry standard.

Only united has the 75% thing-- US has some but it's overall a different deal, and the AA thing has been explained to me several times but I can't quite make heads or tails of it. Virtually all other airlines (FDX and the regionals, too) are similar to what we have (with varying recovery obligations).

It is a MAJOR concession that will affect all FOs as well as junior CAs.
80ktsClamp,

I understand you are a moderator here? I made a proposal a few pages back to keep honest information flowing to this thread. Did you happen to read it? I believe we have support for such guidelines. I am told you banned SharpestTool for some of the issues covered in this proposal. Can you please take a look and give your thoughts?

Also, Is it true ACL65 is one of the Atlanta council reps for ALPA? If yes, there is a clear conflict having him as a moderator here. Can moderators read private messages between members here? Any info would be appreciated.
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Old 06-13-2015 | 07:58 PM
  #8625  
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From: Going to hell in a bucket, but enjoying the ride .
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Originally Posted by forgot to bid
I'll make a prediction timbo. If this TA passes or fails, we'll talk about it here.
You're dreaming!

Never Happen!

You KNOW all we talk about here is Cheerleaders and Underboob!
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Old 06-13-2015 | 07:59 PM
  #8626  
Carl Spackler's Avatar
Back on TDY
 
Joined: Apr 2008
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From: 747-400 Captain
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Originally Posted by forgot to bid
I'll make a prediction timbo. If this TA passes or fails, we'll talk about it here.
Making predictions is very difficult...especially about the future.

Carl - Channeling Yogi Berra
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Old 06-13-2015 | 07:59 PM
  #8627  
80ktsClamp's Avatar
Da Hudge
 
Joined: Oct 2006
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From: Poodle Whisperer
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Originally Posted by MtEverest
80ktsClamp,

I understand you are a moderator here? I made a proposal a few pages back to keep honest information flowing to this thread. Did you happen to read it? I believe we have support for such guidelines. I am told you banned SharpestTool for some of the issues covered in this proposal. Can you please take a look and give your thoughts?

Also, Is it true ACL65 is one of the Atlanta council reps for ALPA? If yes, there is a clear conflict having him as a moderator here. Can moderators read private messages between members here? Any info would be appreciated.
The idea isn't a bad one, but both sides tend to get a bit shrill and a lot of gray is tossed around. It's already hard enough to keep up with the site, much moreso fact check every interpretation and subsequently ban.

Tool was temporary banned by a site admin for crass language and insulting other members repeatedly. I'm keeping a sharp eye on him.

While ACL65 is still listed as a mod, he hasn't actively participated here since his election. No one can see your PMs except the sender and recipient(s) of the PM.
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Old 06-13-2015 | 08:00 PM
  #8628  
80ktsClamp's Avatar
Da Hudge
 
Joined: Oct 2006
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From: Poodle Whisperer
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Originally Posted by forgot to bid
I'll make a prediction timbo. If this TA passes or fails, we'll talk about it here.
Of all the TAs I've seen, this is one of them.
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Old 06-13-2015 | 08:00 PM
  #8629  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined: Jul 2007
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From: Permanently scarred
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Originally Posted by Bounty Man
Wait for correction and reset of dollar. Gold and silver (physical) is best bet. Or short market like I'm doing.
Did gold bug finally get enough precious metal?
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Old 06-13-2015 | 08:02 PM
  #8630  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined: Jul 2008
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Originally Posted by BlackRocket
DAL Compensation calculations:

Assumptions; 1,000 hrs/year @ 12 years pay seniority

===========================================

Current B-777 Captain
$272 x 1,000 = $272,000 + 20% PS = $326,400

New TA 2015 B-777 Captain with 2016 pay rates
$311 x 1,000 = $311,000 + 10% PS = $342,000

That's a 2016 4.8% raise
+ 1.0% 401K contribution is a total aggregate of 5.8%

===========================================

Current B-777 FO
$185 x 1,000 = 185,000 + 20% PS = $222,000

New TA 2015 B-777 FO with 2016 pay rates
$212 x 1,000 = $212,000 + 10% = $233,200

Thats a 2016 5.0% raise
+ 1.0% 401k contribution is a total aggregate of 6.0%

===========================================

Current B-737 Captain
$219 x 1,000 = $219,000 + 20% PS = $262,800

TA 2015 B-737 Captain with 2016 pay rates
$251 x 1,000 = $251,000 + 10% = $276,222

That's a 2016 5.4% raise
+ 1.0% 401k contribution is a total aggregate of 6.4%

===========================================

Current B-737 FO
$149 x 1,000 = $149,000 + 20% PS = $178,800

TA 2015 B-737 FO with 2016 pay rates
$170 x 1,000 = $170,000 + 10% PS = $187,000

That's a 2016 4.5% raise
+ 1.0% 401k contribution is a total aggregate of 5.5%

===========================================
Cliff's Notes

*Between the most senior pay rates from B-777 Captain to a 12 year B-737 FO...the average pay raise is appx. 5.5%

Add in the 2017 & 2018 3% pay increases and you end up having an 11.5% raise.

Consider the options of turning down TA 2015 carefully.

If disapproved, we can end up going to arbitrage and dragging this out for 2-3 years for only a couple percent more. Then we will be ready for a new contract. Also, the arbitrator's directed to meet just industry standards.


Consider all the facts carefuly and vote wisely!
B-R
21 posts? **** off. We are more concerned with the concessions. The only problem with the pay is that it is less than C2012 and funded by profit sharing.
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